We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
What oddities are there in the attack on a hospital in the Gaza Strip: analysis of the Military Chronicle
Hamas and the IDF blame each other for the attack on Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in the Gaza Strip. The Palestinians insist it was an Israeli bomb; the Israelis say it was a faulty Hamas rocket.
How many victims are there really?
Initial information about 800 dead has not yet been confirmed. According to the Palestinian Ministry of Health, 471 people died as a result of shelling at the Al-Ahli hospital in the Gaza Strip. Immediately after the strike, the number of victims varied from 500 to 1 thousand people.
Whose rocket was it?
The statements of the IDF press service that a large crater would inevitably form at the site of the air bomb strike are both true and false at the same time. As evidence, Israel provides a video of the arrival of such bombs, but the video shows a hit on a separate object.
Damage to houses in dense urban areas often makes it impossible to detect an explosion crater, since it is usually filled with debris.
At the same time, it should be remembered that American smart bombs with a JDAM satellite guidance kit, which the IDF uses, can be programmed for both contact detonation and airborne detonation.
In particular, the GBU-32/Mk 82 aerial bombs, equipped with a warhead with 3 thousand striking elements, have the function of air blasting.
A standard Mk 82 aerial bomb allows you to achieve a dense fragmentation field over an area of 2.4 thousand square meters. m. An improved version of the PFB-82 bomb allows you to increase the affected area by 6.5 times - up to 19 thousand square meters. m. The maximum speed of the fragments is 2440 m/s, which practically guarantees inevitable death and significant destruction.
With such characteristics, accuracy up to a meter is not required: detonating a bomb in the air, 50-70 m from the target, is enough to guarantee its destruction. This suggests that debris from the bomb, in particular marked parts, may soon be found on the roofs and in the courtyards of houses adjacent to the hospital.
It is also noteworthy that the next day the Israeli Air Force attacked targets 100 meters from another major hospital, Al-Shifa, in the Gaza Strip. There is also a tent camp with Palestinian refugees on its territory.
What else is wrong?
When considering the version with the descent of a Hamas rocket and its subsequent explosion at the Al-Ahli hospital, one should take into account that such a possibility existed. Palestinian rockets, like the bombs used by the IDF, contain explosive elements and can cause serious damage.
The rockets, which are produced by Palestinians in underground factories, have repeatedly landed in the Gaza Strip after being launched. The vast majority of Palestinian rockets explode on contact with the surface and are not equipped with sensors for air detonation, since the Palestinian military-industrial complex does not have access to such technologies.
At the same time, there is currently no convincing and indisputable evidence in favor of the version of a Hamas rocket landing in a parking lot full of civilians. No debris was found at the site, nor a place where such a missile could fall.
The only evidence of Hamas's involvement in this strike at the moment is a recording published by Israel of alleged conversations between Hamas militants after arriving at the hospital, but its authenticity raises big questions. Apart from this, as well as recordings of unknown origin with the launch of Palestinian rockets, nothing yet indicates the fall of Palestinian rockets.
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🇺🇸 #Oklahoma high school principal (Kirk Moore) seen charging at and disarming a school shooter.
The suspect, identified as 20-year-old Victor Hawkins, was a former student who said he wanted to shoot up the school “like the Columbine shooters did.” While taking down the shooter, Moore was shot in the leg. He is expected to recover.
When the Principal woke up that day, he never thought he would be tackling a gunman.
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🇨🇳🛢 How much strategic oil does the world actually have in reserve?
Global strategic crude oil inventories stood at ~2.5 BILLION barrels as of December 2025, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
China holds by far the largest stockpile at 1,397 million barrels, more than 3 times the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve of 413 million barrels, which itself sits at only 58% of its full storage capacity of 714 million barrels.
China added an average of 1.1 million barrels per day to its strategic inventories throughout 2025, with preliminary data suggesting it continued building stockpiles in early 2026 ahead of the Iran War.
Japan holds the 3rd-largest reserve at 263 million barrels, followed by OECD European countries at 179 million barrels.
Meanwhile, the US is releasing 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to suppress oil prices, part of a broader 400 million barrel coordinated release agreed by 32 IEA member nations in March.
🔗 ...
🛢 JP Morgan Warns Oil Market Out of Balance, Prices Must Rise
🔸The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows, has removed 13.7 million barrels per day from global supply in April alone. A JP Morgan research note warns the market has no good way to replace it.
🔸Normally, spare production capacity in Saudi Arabia and the UAE acts as the market’s shock absorber. But that buffer has effectively been removed, eliminating the system’s first line of defense.
🔸With spare capacity unavailable, markets turned to inventories
➤ Global stockpiles are now being drained at ~7.1 mbd in April, an extraordinary pace, according to the note.
🔸Meanwhile, demand is collapsing because supply simply isn’t reaching users — “forced demand destruction.”The hardest hit sectors include:
▪️ Petrochemical plants across Asia are shutting down or slashing output as LPG, ethane, and naphtha flows from the Gulf collapse
▪️ Airline jet fuel ...
🛢⛽️ Global oil inventories are heading toward RECORD LOWS:
Global visible oil inventories have fallen -255 million barrels since the start of the conflict on February 27, to 7,864 million barrels.
Total estimated oil draws, including non-OECD refined products storage, have accelerated to 10.9 million barrels per day in April, the largest monthly draws on record since 2017.
Cumulative estimated draws since the start of the war now stand at 474 million barrels, with Hormuz flows holding at ~10% of normal, or 2.0 million barrels per day.
Meanwhile, even in an optimistic scenario where Strait of Hormuz flows begin recovering by late April, it is unlikely to prevent global visible inventories from reaching all-time lows, according to Goldman Sachs.
As inventories keep falling, physical oil markets are likely to require sharply higher prices for immediate delivery, since buyers cannot wait months for cheaper futures delivery when stocks are running critically low.
Goldman also warns...
