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Day 12

— 🇮🇱/🇵🇸/🇱🇧 12th day of the war, October 18th, status update and major events:

– Many airstrikes on Gaza throughout the entire day, still a huge lack of food, water, medicine and electricity.

– Israel and the US now officially claim that the Al-Ahli hospital massacre was the result of a misfired PIJ rocket, not an Israeli airstrike.

– Sporadic rocket attacks by Hamas and PIJ on cities such as Ashkelon, Ashdod and Tel Aviv.

– Biden visited Israel, and announced that an agreement was reached to allow humanitarian aid into Gaza from Egypt through the Rafah crossing. He also discussed the details of a possible Gaza invasion with Netanyahu.

– Israel set up field hospitals near Lebanon, and Defense Minister Gallant said that the IDF needs to be ready for any scenario in the north.

– Throughout the entire day, a large amount of Hezbollah attacks on the IDF in settlements near the Lebanese border. Hezbollah carried out even more attacks than yesterday. They used ATGMs on Israeli tanks, launched mortars against IDF outposts, and disabled surveillance equipment by shooting with snipers and small arms.

– Furthermore, Hezbollah announced that 3 of their fighters had been killed, making the total amount of fighters killed 13.

– The Israeli army shelled South Lebanon with artillery in response to these attacks, and the Israeli air force carried out strikes on Hezbollah targets.

– Israeli public broadcaster Kann says that all preparations for an Israeli ground offensive into Gaza are complete.

– Israel's war cabinet held a meeting to make a final decision regarding the plans for a possible ground offensive into Gaza.

@Middle_East_Spectator

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OIL SHOCK

🇮🇱 ❌ 🇮🇷 🛢 📈 — Deutsche Bank: Oil Prices will go to $125/barrel if the Iran-Israel conflict spills over into the Straight of Hormuz

@CIG_Telegram

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Analysis

Developments in the Iran-Israel war. It is currently 1:11am in Tel Aviv and 1:42am in Tehran.

Main points:

Iran and Israel have started targeting each other’s energy infrastructure.

Iranian missiles continued to target and impact northern and central Israel.

Israel has started targeting Iranian oil infrastructure, including oil refineries and oil depots.

Israeli airstrikes continue to target various parts of Tehran and the surrounding areas.

Iranian air defence seems to finally be doing some damage to Israeli missiles and drones. In turn, Israel has deployed dozens of small quadcopters and loitering munitions to waste Iranian air defence and saturate for larger attacks with cruise missiles.

Drones launched from Iran and factions in Iraq continue to target northern and southern Israel.

Missiles & drones:

2 rockets were launched from the Khan Younis area of southern Gaza by an unknown Palestinian faction. Neither were intercepted, with the IDF claiming they hit an open area with no casualties.

2 rockets were ...

Oil Prices

OIL MARKETS REACT SHARPLY TO ESCALATING MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS

📈 WTI CRUDE IS NOW FORECAST TO HIT $94.10 BY YEAR-END, UP OVER $21 IN A WEEK, ACCORDING TO KALSHI MARKETS.

THE JUMP FOLLOWS IRAN’S CANCELLATION OF NUCLEAR TALKS WITH THE U.S., CITING ISRAELI AIRSTRIKES. WITH TENSIONS RISING, MARKETS ARE PRICING IN THE RISK OF REGIONAL ESCALATION AND POTENTIAL DISRUPTION TO OIL FLOWS THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, A KEY ROUTE FOR 20% OF GLOBAL OIL.

ANALYSTS WARN THAT A FULL CLOSURE OF THE STRAIT COULD PUSH PRICES ABOVE $120–$150 PER BARREL. ...

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