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Day 17

— 🇮🇱/🇵🇸/🇱🇧/🇮🇶/🇸🇾 17th day of the war, October 23rd status update and major events:

– Heavy airstrikes on Gaza at night. Still a huge lack of food, water, medicine and electricity. Hospitals are expected to be out of power within 48 hrs.

– Sporadic rocket attacks by Hamas and PIJ took place on cities like Sderot, Ashkelon and others. Very small.

– Throughout the day, Hezbollah carried out at least 3 attacks with ATGMs against IDF targets in settlements near the Lebanese border. Today's activity on the northern front was significantly less intense than the previous days, possible even the least we have seen since the first few days of the war.

– The amount of officially announced Hezbollah martyrs has risen to 32.

– As a response to Hezbollah attacks, the IDF carried out artillery shellings, drone strikes and airstrikes on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, but much less than previous days.

– The Islamic Resistance in Iraq carried out attacks on 5 U.S. occupation bases in Syria with suicide drones. They first struck Al-Tanf, Al-Rukban and Al-Malikiyah in the afternoon, and then Al-Omar oil field and Al-Shaddadi base in the evening.

– IRGC-affiliated planes started using Khmeimim airbase in Syria for the first time.

– Hamas released two elderly female prisoners for humanitarian reasons.

– Limited Israeli raids and incursions took place in the Gaza strip to the East of Al-Maghazi camp.

@Middle_East_Spectator

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OIL SHOCK

🇮🇱 ❌ 🇮🇷 🛢 📈 — Deutsche Bank: Oil Prices will go to $125/barrel if the Iran-Israel conflict spills over into the Straight of Hormuz

@CIG_Telegram

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Analysis

Developments in the Iran-Israel war. It is currently 1:11am in Tel Aviv and 1:42am in Tehran.

Main points:

Iran and Israel have started targeting each other’s energy infrastructure.

Iranian missiles continued to target and impact northern and central Israel.

Israel has started targeting Iranian oil infrastructure, including oil refineries and oil depots.

Israeli airstrikes continue to target various parts of Tehran and the surrounding areas.

Iranian air defence seems to finally be doing some damage to Israeli missiles and drones. In turn, Israel has deployed dozens of small quadcopters and loitering munitions to waste Iranian air defence and saturate for larger attacks with cruise missiles.

Drones launched from Iran and factions in Iraq continue to target northern and southern Israel.

Missiles & drones:

2 rockets were launched from the Khan Younis area of southern Gaza by an unknown Palestinian faction. Neither were intercepted, with the IDF claiming they hit an open area with no casualties.

2 rockets were ...

Oil Prices

OIL MARKETS REACT SHARPLY TO ESCALATING MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS

📈 WTI CRUDE IS NOW FORECAST TO HIT $94.10 BY YEAR-END, UP OVER $21 IN A WEEK, ACCORDING TO KALSHI MARKETS.

THE JUMP FOLLOWS IRAN’S CANCELLATION OF NUCLEAR TALKS WITH THE U.S., CITING ISRAELI AIRSTRIKES. WITH TENSIONS RISING, MARKETS ARE PRICING IN THE RISK OF REGIONAL ESCALATION AND POTENTIAL DISRUPTION TO OIL FLOWS THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, A KEY ROUTE FOR 20% OF GLOBAL OIL.

ANALYSTS WARN THAT A FULL CLOSURE OF THE STRAIT COULD PUSH PRICES ABOVE $120–$150 PER BARREL. ...

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