We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
— 🇮🇱/🇵🇸/🇱🇧/🇸🇾 23rd day of the war, October 29th, status update and major events:
— Due to a total blackout in Gaza, we basically know nothing about the situation inside the strip, but artillery fire and airstrikes continue, and the humanitarian situation is worse than ever.
– Sporadic small-scale rocket attacks from the Gaza strip into Israeli settlements.
– Large amounts of Israeli tanks and mechanized infantry units are inside northern Gaza since last friday, having fully secured the area of As-Siafa near the sea, which constitutes an incursion of about 1.5km deep at the furthest point. No additional progress was made during the course of today, despite continuous clashes.
– On the Beit Lahia and Beit Hanoun outskirts, the IDF has not made any further advancements since yesterday either, having so far secured an incursion of about 300 meters into the strip.
– Small scale rocket attacks took place on settlements in the Galilee, with a confirmed impact in Kiryat Shmona, causing a fire. The attacks were claimed by the Sunni-Islamist movement 'Jamaa Islamiyya' in Lebanon, specifically its armed wing, the Al-Fajr forces.
– Hezbollah targeted IDF troops, equipment and vehicles in the settlements of Misgav, Al-Samaqah, Al-Malikiyah, Birkat Risha and Ramia with ATGMs and other weaponry, inflicting casualties and materiel losses. They announced one martyr, making the total amount now 48.
– Hezbollah downed an Israeli UAV over Sharq Al-Khiam with a surface-to-air missile.
– As a response to these attacks, the IDF shelled South Lebanon with artillery and carried out targeted drone strikes against Hezbollah positions.
– Hezbollah announced that its leader, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, will give an important speech on the 3rd of November.
– American F-16 fighter jets targeted positions of IRGC-affiliated Iranian proxies in the Syrian border town of Al-Bukamal according to local sources, but the U.S. has not confirmed this event, nor have we received visual confirmation.
– The Islamic Resistance in Iraq carried out an attack on the Al-Shaddadi base in Syria. The Al-Omar oil field also came under attack, but no group has claimed responsibility.
– Israeli jets bombed the headquarters of Syria's 112th mechanized brigade in the city of Nawa, according to SANA. Others claim that several warehouses and infrastructure of Iranian proxies were the target of the strike, and not the SAA.
@Middle_East_Spectator
🇺🇸 #Oklahoma high school principal (Kirk Moore) seen charging at and disarming a school shooter.
The suspect, identified as 20-year-old Victor Hawkins, was a former student who said he wanted to shoot up the school “like the Columbine shooters did.” While taking down the shooter, Moore was shot in the leg. He is expected to recover.
When the Principal woke up that day, he never thought he would be tackling a gunman.
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🇨🇳🛢 How much strategic oil does the world actually have in reserve?
Global strategic crude oil inventories stood at ~2.5 BILLION barrels as of December 2025, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
China holds by far the largest stockpile at 1,397 million barrels, more than 3 times the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve of 413 million barrels, which itself sits at only 58% of its full storage capacity of 714 million barrels.
China added an average of 1.1 million barrels per day to its strategic inventories throughout 2025, with preliminary data suggesting it continued building stockpiles in early 2026 ahead of the Iran War.
Japan holds the 3rd-largest reserve at 263 million barrels, followed by OECD European countries at 179 million barrels.
Meanwhile, the US is releasing 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to suppress oil prices, part of a broader 400 million barrel coordinated release agreed by 32 IEA member nations in March.
🔗 ...
🛢 JP Morgan Warns Oil Market Out of Balance, Prices Must Rise
🔸The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows, has removed 13.7 million barrels per day from global supply in April alone. A JP Morgan research note warns the market has no good way to replace it.
🔸Normally, spare production capacity in Saudi Arabia and the UAE acts as the market’s shock absorber. But that buffer has effectively been removed, eliminating the system’s first line of defense.
🔸With spare capacity unavailable, markets turned to inventories
➤ Global stockpiles are now being drained at ~7.1 mbd in April, an extraordinary pace, according to the note.
🔸Meanwhile, demand is collapsing because supply simply isn’t reaching users — “forced demand destruction.”The hardest hit sectors include:
▪️ Petrochemical plants across Asia are shutting down or slashing output as LPG, ethane, and naphtha flows from the Gulf collapse
▪️ Airline jet fuel ...
🛢⛽️ Global oil inventories are heading toward RECORD LOWS:
Global visible oil inventories have fallen -255 million barrels since the start of the conflict on February 27, to 7,864 million barrels.
Total estimated oil draws, including non-OECD refined products storage, have accelerated to 10.9 million barrels per day in April, the largest monthly draws on record since 2017.
Cumulative estimated draws since the start of the war now stand at 474 million barrels, with Hormuz flows holding at ~10% of normal, or 2.0 million barrels per day.
Meanwhile, even in an optimistic scenario where Strait of Hormuz flows begin recovering by late April, it is unlikely to prevent global visible inventories from reaching all-time lows, according to Goldman Sachs.
As inventories keep falling, physical oil markets are likely to require sharply higher prices for immediate delivery, since buyers cannot wait months for cheaper futures delivery when stocks are running critically low.
Goldman also warns...
