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Main Event

— 🇱🇧 Hezbollah: The Game Plan

Everyone who has been following the war since the 7th of October knows that all parties involved are anxiously awaiting the next move from resistance-axis factions, first and foremost Hezbollah.

Hezbollah, who pushed Israel out of Lebanon in the 80's and defended the South against another attempted occupation in 2006, is a far more potent and capable enemy to the Israeli military than Hamas or the PIJ wil ever be.

Since the beginning of the war, unofficial statements and media reports have been circulating, claiming that an Israeli ground invasion of Gaza would be considered as a red line for Hezbollah.

Despite these statements being unofficial, many of you have wondered, when will Hezbollah really get involved?

Since October 8th, Hezbollah has attacked IDF positions across the Lebanese border every single day, with no exceptions. Approximately 50 martyrs have been announced, and we can only wonder about the number of Israeli deaths. Besides the deaths, many IDF vehicles and tanks have been destroyed.

However, there are clues that something else is being prepared for. Something unprecedented, many times more severe than Hamas' October 7th infiltrations.

Each day for the past 24 days, Hezbollah has consistently and sucessfully been disabling Israeli surveillance & observation equipment on the Lebanese border.

Dozens of radar stations, night vision cameras, infrared sensors, long range communication towers, telescopes and antennas have all been destroyed by the Lebanese group during the past few weeks.

These operations have practically blinded the Israelis in the north, especially in Metula and the surrounding settlements. One can only start to wonder why Hezbollah would have put so much emphasis on this modus-operandi, instead of just going for killing soldiers or destroying tanks.

Based on this information, it is very possible that the main event is yet to come. Otherwise, Hezbollah would not have spent so much attention on destroying IDF equipment, knowing that they would just be repaired months later. Unless, they knew that there won't be such an opportunity again. We might be in the endgame.

All we can do is wait for Nasrallah's speech on Friday. But there might be some surprises in store, and the signs have been there.

@Middle_East_Spectator

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OIL SHOCK

🇮🇱 ❌ 🇮🇷 🛢 📈 — Deutsche Bank: Oil Prices will go to $125/barrel if the Iran-Israel conflict spills over into the Straight of Hormuz

@CIG_Telegram

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Analysis

Developments in the Iran-Israel war. It is currently 1:11am in Tel Aviv and 1:42am in Tehran.

Main points:

Iran and Israel have started targeting each other’s energy infrastructure.

Iranian missiles continued to target and impact northern and central Israel.

Israel has started targeting Iranian oil infrastructure, including oil refineries and oil depots.

Israeli airstrikes continue to target various parts of Tehran and the surrounding areas.

Iranian air defence seems to finally be doing some damage to Israeli missiles and drones. In turn, Israel has deployed dozens of small quadcopters and loitering munitions to waste Iranian air defence and saturate for larger attacks with cruise missiles.

Drones launched from Iran and factions in Iraq continue to target northern and southern Israel.

Missiles & drones:

2 rockets were launched from the Khan Younis area of southern Gaza by an unknown Palestinian faction. Neither were intercepted, with the IDF claiming they hit an open area with no casualties.

2 rockets were ...

Oil Prices

OIL MARKETS REACT SHARPLY TO ESCALATING MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS

📈 WTI CRUDE IS NOW FORECAST TO HIT $94.10 BY YEAR-END, UP OVER $21 IN A WEEK, ACCORDING TO KALSHI MARKETS.

THE JUMP FOLLOWS IRAN’S CANCELLATION OF NUCLEAR TALKS WITH THE U.S., CITING ISRAELI AIRSTRIKES. WITH TENSIONS RISING, MARKETS ARE PRICING IN THE RISK OF REGIONAL ESCALATION AND POTENTIAL DISRUPTION TO OIL FLOWS THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, A KEY ROUTE FOR 20% OF GLOBAL OIL.

ANALYSTS WARN THAT A FULL CLOSURE OF THE STRAIT COULD PUSH PRICES ABOVE $120–$150 PER BARREL. ...

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