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Sticky Supercore
When it comes to inflation, we know that the Bureau of Economic Analysis releases two inflation reports, the CPI and PCE, each month. The two differ because they each measure a distinct basket of goods (you can read about the technicals of each here).
These further break down into core (which omits volatile energy and food pricing) and headline inflation, which includes it. So we have headline CPI, core CPI, headline PCE, and core PCE. There are pros and cons to each, but the Fed states its inflation goal in terms of core inflation - specifically core PCE.
There are three (major) components to core PCE: core goods, housing, and core services ex-housing.
The last of which, core services ex-housing (also known as "Supercore" ), comprises 55% of the core PCE inflation index and, in the words of Powell himself, "may be the most important category for understanding the future evolution of core inflation. Because wages make up the largest cost in delivering these services, the labor market holds the key to understanding inflation in this category."
While today's core CPI may have come in as expected, core services ex housing rose for the fifth consecutive month. You cannot think seriously about rate cuts, which would likely rekindle economic activity and spur additional inflation, without consideration for Powell's metric of choice.
China is now closing mosques and converting them into barns for raising chickens as a way to fight radicalism. China officially considers Islam a ‘mental illness.’ Do you like this idea?
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🇺🇸⚡- Matthew Lanske, a 21-year-old White man, was shot three times by Black teenagers during a “Teen Takeover,” when Black teens attempted to rob Lanske and his friend at gunpoint, he tried to wrestle the gun away and was shot three times in the process, and his friend was killed.
The story, somehow, gets worse. Lanske was then able to walk nearly two blocks while bleeding out and attempted to seek refuge at a 7/11 where the Indian workers would not allow him to come inside. Lanske proceeded to text 911 and his girlfriend and then passed out due to blood loss. While Lanske was unconscious, the prowling Black teens returned and began to film his unconscious body. Two Seattle Police officers arrived and kept him alive until paramedics came. He was rushed into emergency surgery, placed on life support in the Trauma ICU, and then underwent another major operation to reconnect his intestines, which was successful.
Lanske has woken up and is responding in the hospital. His ...
🌆 Market News Digest
[Sep 11, 2026, 07:00-16:25 EST]
🔥 Top Stories
• US CPI hotter in the details, Fed hike odds jump — core CPI rose 0.3% m/m vs 0.2% est.; traders now price ~90% chance of a Sept hike
• Saudi oil infrastructure attacked; East-West pipeline shut as precaution — major escalation risk lifted crude, diesel and gas prices despite later profit-taking
• Trump doubles down on $5,000 “dividend” checks — White House says payouts may be funded without tax dollars, but offsets remain unclear
• University of Michigan sentiment slumps — consumer sentiment fell to 47.8 and 1-year inflation expectations jumped to 4.6%
⛽ Oil & Energy
• Saudi pipeline attacks, Bab-el-Mandeb/Hormuz tension — output/shipping fears hit WTI, Brent and refined products; Chevron says risk is higher
• Saudi East-West pipeline shut temporarily — Riyadh says it is assessing safety after multiple attacks
• OPEC/Middle East supply worries intensify — Azeri BTC premiums jumped; QatarEnergy seeks longer ...
