We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
Sticky Supercore
When it comes to inflation, we know that the Bureau of Economic Analysis releases two inflation reports, the CPI and PCE, each month. The two differ because they each measure a distinct basket of goods (you can read about the technicals of each here).
These further break down into core (which omits volatile energy and food pricing) and headline inflation, which includes it. So we have headline CPI, core CPI, headline PCE, and core PCE. There are pros and cons to each, but the Fed states its inflation goal in terms of core inflation - specifically core PCE.
There are three (major) components to core PCE: core goods, housing, and core services ex-housing.
The last of which, core services ex-housing (also known as "Supercore" ), comprises 55% of the core PCE inflation index and, in the words of Powell himself, "may be the most important category for understanding the future evolution of core inflation. Because wages make up the largest cost in delivering these services, the labor market holds the key to understanding inflation in this category."
While today's core CPI may have come in as expected, core services ex housing rose for the fifth consecutive month. You cannot think seriously about rate cuts, which would likely rekindle economic activity and spur additional inflation, without consideration for Powell's metric of choice.
China is now closing mosques and converting them into barns for raising chickens as a way to fight radicalism. China officially considers Islam a ‘mental illness.’ Do you like this idea?
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🛢📈 — Reuters reports that oil is approaching $100 per barrel following the latest exchange of attacks between Americans and Iranians on oil tankers.
▶️The price of Brent crude has risen to $97.07 per barrel, while American WTI crude has risen to $92.28. In the past week, Brent has risen by 7.8%, while WTI has risen by nearly 10%.
▶️On Saturday, U.S. forces attacked three Iranian oil tankers, one of which was stationed near the island of Kharg, a key center for Iranian oil exports. In response, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced attacks on three oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and three more U.S. ships.
▶️In this context, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has sharply declined. Over the past 10 days, an average of only 10 cargo ships have transited the strait per day – the lowest level since May.
The WHO now states on its website:
Vaccination against COVID-19 can trigger multiple sclerosis through cross-reactive CD4+-T cells that recognize the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 and myelin peptides.
In other words: Your own immune system destroys the nerve pathways and then attacks your brain and spinal cord.
