We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
📝 🇾🇪 🇺🇸 Why do I think the Houthis are such a force to be reckoned with? Why do I think there is actually a chance they could defeat a US led coalition? | Calvin Froedge
🔶️ The Houthis seized power in 2014 following a coup, and after taking the capital of Sana'a, moved southward to begin an offensive against government forces.
🔶️ In 2015, A Saudi-led coalition of Arab states—including the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Morocco, Jordan, Bahrain, Sudan, and Kuwait - with the material support of the US - joins the Yemeni government in fighting the Houthis.
⬛️ The coalition attacked by land, air, and sea.
🔶️ Despite an all out "scorched earth" war against the Houthis by virtually the entire Arab world and increased US arms sales to the Saudis, the Houthis remained undefeated and continued to gain ground against the Yemeni government.
🔶️ The Houthis would claim numerous victories over the coming years, not only against the Yemeni ground forces, but against coalition ground forces, coalition air forces, and even coalition naval forces.
⬛️ No matter how much they got hit with, the Houthis kept winning.
🔶️ In 2016 the Houthis even managed to completely destroy a coalition warship, the Emirati HSV-SWIFT 2.
⬛️ The ship was targeted by a Houthi anti ship missile.
🔶️ By 2019, the coalition has fallen apart. The Houthis have assassinated many key figures in the Yemeni government. They landed a huge blow against the Saudis in the 2019 Abaqiq attack. UAE forces have completely withdrawn from Yemen.
⬛️ The coalition decides to let the Houthis win.
🔶️ On March 30, 2022, Saudi Arabia announces a cessation of all military operations in Yemen.
🔶️ The Houthis have won. Against all odds, against the whole Arab world, against the United States, from a small city in Northern Yemen, the Houthis have conquered the country.
🔶️ Fast forward to today, are the Houthis weaker than they were a decade ago? Far from it.
🔶️ The Houthis now enjoy mass popular support and have inherited vast Yemeni weapons arsenal as well as supplies from Iran.
⬛️ They enjoy a strong strategic position at a vital choke point.
🔶️ My reasoning for thinking the Houthis are a force to be reckoned with is simple - they have already proven it, over and over again, while vastly outnumbered against foes supplied and supported by the most powerful empire the earth has ever seen.
⬛️ The Houthis are the Fremen.
🔶️ The Houthis have proven that they cannot be starved. Years of blockade were ineffective.
🔶️ They have proven that they cannot be defeated with technology - they have downed countless modern European and US built aircraft.
🇾🇪 This enemy will fight to the last man.
🇺🇸 #Oklahoma high school principal (Kirk Moore) seen charging at and disarming a school shooter.
The suspect, identified as 20-year-old Victor Hawkins, was a former student who said he wanted to shoot up the school “like the Columbine shooters did.” While taking down the shooter, Moore was shot in the leg. He is expected to recover.
When the Principal woke up that day, he never thought he would be tackling a gunman.
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🇨🇳🛢 How much strategic oil does the world actually have in reserve?
Global strategic crude oil inventories stood at ~2.5 BILLION barrels as of December 2025, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
China holds by far the largest stockpile at 1,397 million barrels, more than 3 times the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve of 413 million barrels, which itself sits at only 58% of its full storage capacity of 714 million barrels.
China added an average of 1.1 million barrels per day to its strategic inventories throughout 2025, with preliminary data suggesting it continued building stockpiles in early 2026 ahead of the Iran War.
Japan holds the 3rd-largest reserve at 263 million barrels, followed by OECD European countries at 179 million barrels.
Meanwhile, the US is releasing 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to suppress oil prices, part of a broader 400 million barrel coordinated release agreed by 32 IEA member nations in March.
🔗 ...
🛢 JP Morgan Warns Oil Market Out of Balance, Prices Must Rise
🔸The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows, has removed 13.7 million barrels per day from global supply in April alone. A JP Morgan research note warns the market has no good way to replace it.
🔸Normally, spare production capacity in Saudi Arabia and the UAE acts as the market’s shock absorber. But that buffer has effectively been removed, eliminating the system’s first line of defense.
🔸With spare capacity unavailable, markets turned to inventories
➤ Global stockpiles are now being drained at ~7.1 mbd in April, an extraordinary pace, according to the note.
🔸Meanwhile, demand is collapsing because supply simply isn’t reaching users — “forced demand destruction.”The hardest hit sectors include:
▪️ Petrochemical plants across Asia are shutting down or slashing output as LPG, ethane, and naphtha flows from the Gulf collapse
▪️ Airline jet fuel ...
🛢⛽️ Global oil inventories are heading toward RECORD LOWS:
Global visible oil inventories have fallen -255 million barrels since the start of the conflict on February 27, to 7,864 million barrels.
Total estimated oil draws, including non-OECD refined products storage, have accelerated to 10.9 million barrels per day in April, the largest monthly draws on record since 2017.
Cumulative estimated draws since the start of the war now stand at 474 million barrels, with Hormuz flows holding at ~10% of normal, or 2.0 million barrels per day.
Meanwhile, even in an optimistic scenario where Strait of Hormuz flows begin recovering by late April, it is unlikely to prevent global visible inventories from reaching all-time lows, according to Goldman Sachs.
As inventories keep falling, physical oil markets are likely to require sharply higher prices for immediate delivery, since buyers cannot wait months for cheaper futures delivery when stocks are running critically low.
Goldman also warns...
