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December 29, 2023
It Costs Us

🚷 🇳🇱 📊 Die Welt has an interview with a co-author of the groundbreaking Dutch study on the net economic costs of immigration, which has sparked a huge controversy in the Netherlands. The top line finding is that immigration has cost

🔶️ the Dutch state an average of €17 billion per year since 1995, mainly in providing generous welfare benefits to unemployed migrants. Work migrants from Western (blue) & non-Western (black) are the only net contributors. Asylum seekers are the biggest net drain.

🔶️ The other finding is that migrants who don't integrate into the labor market stay in the Netherlands the longest, along with migrants who arrive for family reunification. Immigrants who adapt successfully tend to take their skills and leave the Netherlands,

🔶️ often heading to the US or UK where salaries are higher and taxes lower. Study co-author Jan H. van de Beek describes the system as a sort of welfare magnet in which the least-integrated immigrants stay the longest and cost Dutch taxpayers the most.

🔶️ The University of Amsterdam, which employs some of the study's authors and helped finance it, has since distanced itself from the study, since pointing to any downsides of immigration, no matter obvious and empirically demonstrable, is still taboo among mainstream circles.

🔶️ This, of course, is part of what drives European voters to populist-right parties -- the disconnect between what they see and experience every day and the airbrushed world within the "opinion corridor" (to use the Swedish term) of opinions deemed socially acceptable.

🔶️ Given what we know about immigration in Germany, the results of a major study like the Dutch one would yield nearly identical results here. Which is why it will very likely never happen. The objective reality of the effects of German immigration policy would be too disturbing.

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/plus249243192/Migration-Einwanderer-die-von-Sozialleistungen-abhaengig-werden-verlassen-das-Land-nicht.html

📎 Andrew Hammel

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OIL SHOCK

🇮🇱 ❌ 🇮🇷 🛢 📈 — Deutsche Bank: Oil Prices will go to $125/barrel if the Iran-Israel conflict spills over into the Straight of Hormuz

@CIG_Telegram

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Analysis

Developments in the Iran-Israel war. It is currently 1:11am in Tel Aviv and 1:42am in Tehran.

Main points:

Iran and Israel have started targeting each other’s energy infrastructure.

Iranian missiles continued to target and impact northern and central Israel.

Israel has started targeting Iranian oil infrastructure, including oil refineries and oil depots.

Israeli airstrikes continue to target various parts of Tehran and the surrounding areas.

Iranian air defence seems to finally be doing some damage to Israeli missiles and drones. In turn, Israel has deployed dozens of small quadcopters and loitering munitions to waste Iranian air defence and saturate for larger attacks with cruise missiles.

Drones launched from Iran and factions in Iraq continue to target northern and southern Israel.

Missiles & drones:

2 rockets were launched from the Khan Younis area of southern Gaza by an unknown Palestinian faction. Neither were intercepted, with the IDF claiming they hit an open area with no casualties.

2 rockets were ...

Oil Prices

OIL MARKETS REACT SHARPLY TO ESCALATING MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS

📈 WTI CRUDE IS NOW FORECAST TO HIT $94.10 BY YEAR-END, UP OVER $21 IN A WEEK, ACCORDING TO KALSHI MARKETS.

THE JUMP FOLLOWS IRAN’S CANCELLATION OF NUCLEAR TALKS WITH THE U.S., CITING ISRAELI AIRSTRIKES. WITH TENSIONS RISING, MARKETS ARE PRICING IN THE RISK OF REGIONAL ESCALATION AND POTENTIAL DISRUPTION TO OIL FLOWS THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, A KEY ROUTE FOR 20% OF GLOBAL OIL.

ANALYSTS WARN THAT A FULL CLOSURE OF THE STRAIT COULD PUSH PRICES ABOVE $120–$150 PER BARREL. ...

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