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Global Currency Shifts: The Dollar's New Direction
Recently, the US dollar gained against the Euro and the British Pound, influenced by market speculation about interest rate differences between the US Federal Reserve and European central banks. Despite these increases, the dollar remained stable overall, following new US economic data that prompted reassessment of the Fed's potential easing of monetary policy.
In New York's latest trading session, currency values shifted significantly. The dollar fell to 144.91 yen, and the Euro and Pound also declined to $1.0954 and $1.2747, respectively. The DXY index, which tracks the dollar against other currencies, rose slightly by 0.11% to 102.404 points, registering a small weekly gain of 0.01%.
This consolidation in the dollar’s value came as investors weighed US macroeconomic data for hints of the Fed's future moves. Recent US Producer Price Index (PPI) data, lower than market expectations, slightly eased concerns raised by earlier Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Pantheon, a consultancy firm, suggested that the forthcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report could be crucial. It may prompt the Fed to begin monetary easing sooner, with possible interest rate cuts as early as March. Currently, the market, as per CME Group's tracking tool, anticipates a 79.5% chance of this happening.
Olivier Korber, a strategist at Société Generale Research, views this market expectation as premature. He argues that core inflation may not decline fast enough by March to justify an interest rate cut. The absence of this option in the Fed's minutes supports his view. Korber predicts that this situation might weaken the Euro in the short term, considering the interest rate differential.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ), as reported by sources to Reuters, is expected to maintain its 2% inflation projection for the coming years, despite economic uncertainties and geopolitical risks.
Source
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Source
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[July 3, 2026 EST]
🔥 Top Stories
• Middle East risk flares — IDF hits Hezbollah sites in south Lebanon; Houthis threaten Saudi assets; France deploys naval/mine-countermeasure assets near Hormuz.
• U.S. oil market scrutiny — DOJ/FTC say they’re monitoring crude for price-fixing/collusion as Brent settles at $72.12/bbl.
• Trump pardons saga — Trump signs pardons for six and faces fresh scrutiny after NBC reported undisclosed stock purchases before tariff pause.
⛽ Oil & Energy
• Gulf crude exports topped 10M bpd in June but remain ~40% below pre-conflict levels; Fitch flags ongoing Iran/Mideast risk to corporates and oil forecasts.
• CMA CGM warns Hormuz transit charges would be “devastating”; Airbus says defense cooperation remains pressured.
📊 Markets & Macro
• Germany’s 2027 draft budget lifts borrowing to €203.7B and spending to €555.4B; euro equities firm with DAX +0.85%.
• ECB/BoE message: inflation still the focus, but Bailey says UK ...
🇮🇷🏆🇺🇸 Iran Is a Bigger Defeat Than Vietnam | Foreign Policy
At his second inaugural, U.S. President Donald Trump pronounced his hope “that our recent presidential election will be remembered as the greatest and most consequential election in the history of our country.” By losing his Gulf war, Trump has achieved that goal. His choice to launch a campaign against Iran was encouraged by others, but fully his own. It has led to a reversal that marks a strategic calamity far greater than the U.S. defeat in the Vietnam War.
Defeat in the Iranian war looks, on the surface, nothing like other U.S. military defeats. The speed of the war and its remoteness have lent an air of unreality to the whole endeavor. The White House has not been burned, as it was in 1814; there have not been protests against a nonexistent draft. The absence of substantial U.S. casualties in this conflict also masks the scale of the U.S. defeat. To be sure, the war has been deadly: Thousands of Iranians, ...
According to The Wall Street Journal, Donald Trump reviewed military options for a full-scale war against Iran to “finish the job,” but has decided, for now, not to move forward.
The report says Trump is concerned that renewed military conflict could hurt the chances of a diplomatic resolution and of dismantling Iran’s nuclear program, and that he’s shown willingness to let indirect talks in Qatar run past the August 18 deadline. He is said to be fine with continuing limited strikes on Iranian targets if Tehran violates the current temporary deal - as it already has, repeatedly.
How are those negotiations going?
Not well. It seems JD Vance’s “historic” face-to-face achievement was a one-off. Washington has been quietly downgraded from talking to the Great Satan to negotiating with the Little Satan instead - a senior Qatari official confirmed that U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Qatari officials in Doha, but there are currently no high-level U.S.-Iran meetings ...
