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Global Currency Shifts: The Dollar's New Direction
Recently, the US dollar gained against the Euro and the British Pound, influenced by market speculation about interest rate differences between the US Federal Reserve and European central banks. Despite these increases, the dollar remained stable overall, following new US economic data that prompted reassessment of the Fed's potential easing of monetary policy.
In New York's latest trading session, currency values shifted significantly. The dollar fell to 144.91 yen, and the Euro and Pound also declined to $1.0954 and $1.2747, respectively. The DXY index, which tracks the dollar against other currencies, rose slightly by 0.11% to 102.404 points, registering a small weekly gain of 0.01%.
This consolidation in the dollar’s value came as investors weighed US macroeconomic data for hints of the Fed's future moves. Recent US Producer Price Index (PPI) data, lower than market expectations, slightly eased concerns raised by earlier Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Pantheon, a consultancy firm, suggested that the forthcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report could be crucial. It may prompt the Fed to begin monetary easing sooner, with possible interest rate cuts as early as March. Currently, the market, as per CME Group's tracking tool, anticipates a 79.5% chance of this happening.
Olivier Korber, a strategist at Société Generale Research, views this market expectation as premature. He argues that core inflation may not decline fast enough by March to justify an interest rate cut. The absence of this option in the Fed's minutes supports his view. Korber predicts that this situation might weaken the Euro in the short term, considering the interest rate differential.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ), as reported by sources to Reuters, is expected to maintain its 2% inflation projection for the coming years, despite economic uncertainties and geopolitical risks.
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🇺🇸 #Oklahoma high school principal (Kirk Moore) seen charging at and disarming a school shooter.
The suspect, identified as 20-year-old Victor Hawkins, was a former student who said he wanted to shoot up the school “like the Columbine shooters did.” While taking down the shooter, Moore was shot in the leg. He is expected to recover.
When the Principal woke up that day, he never thought he would be tackling a gunman.
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🇨🇳🛢 How much strategic oil does the world actually have in reserve?
Global strategic crude oil inventories stood at ~2.5 BILLION barrels as of December 2025, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
China holds by far the largest stockpile at 1,397 million barrels, more than 3 times the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve of 413 million barrels, which itself sits at only 58% of its full storage capacity of 714 million barrels.
China added an average of 1.1 million barrels per day to its strategic inventories throughout 2025, with preliminary data suggesting it continued building stockpiles in early 2026 ahead of the Iran War.
Japan holds the 3rd-largest reserve at 263 million barrels, followed by OECD European countries at 179 million barrels.
Meanwhile, the US is releasing 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to suppress oil prices, part of a broader 400 million barrel coordinated release agreed by 32 IEA member nations in March.
🔗 ...
🛢 JP Morgan Warns Oil Market Out of Balance, Prices Must Rise
🔸The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows, has removed 13.7 million barrels per day from global supply in April alone. A JP Morgan research note warns the market has no good way to replace it.
🔸Normally, spare production capacity in Saudi Arabia and the UAE acts as the market’s shock absorber. But that buffer has effectively been removed, eliminating the system’s first line of defense.
🔸With spare capacity unavailable, markets turned to inventories
➤ Global stockpiles are now being drained at ~7.1 mbd in April, an extraordinary pace, according to the note.
🔸Meanwhile, demand is collapsing because supply simply isn’t reaching users — “forced demand destruction.”The hardest hit sectors include:
▪️ Petrochemical plants across Asia are shutting down or slashing output as LPG, ethane, and naphtha flows from the Gulf collapse
▪️ Airline jet fuel ...
🛢⛽️ Global oil inventories are heading toward RECORD LOWS:
Global visible oil inventories have fallen -255 million barrels since the start of the conflict on February 27, to 7,864 million barrels.
Total estimated oil draws, including non-OECD refined products storage, have accelerated to 10.9 million barrels per day in April, the largest monthly draws on record since 2017.
Cumulative estimated draws since the start of the war now stand at 474 million barrels, with Hormuz flows holding at ~10% of normal, or 2.0 million barrels per day.
Meanwhile, even in an optimistic scenario where Strait of Hormuz flows begin recovering by late April, it is unlikely to prevent global visible inventories from reaching all-time lows, according to Goldman Sachs.
As inventories keep falling, physical oil markets are likely to require sharply higher prices for immediate delivery, since buyers cannot wait months for cheaper futures delivery when stocks are running critically low.
Goldman also warns...
