We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🚢 🌍 🏴☠️ Why Attack Shipping: a thread
🔶️ The Houthi strategy looks primitive to most with the random attacks on ships sounding desperate and quite elemental in a world of AI and space exploration. But the game theory behind it is superb.
🔶️ Introducing shipping:
Shipping is an old world industry, global in nature, but greatly affecting everyone and every local economy differently. It operates in vast open oceans with minimal policing or regulation for centuries, and it works extremely well to support our everyday lifestyles. But in the last few years disruptions due to various factors have brought shipping to the forefront. Why suddenly shipping matters?
🔶️ Although there are so many different types of ships in a global commercial fleet of 80,000+ vessels, picking what matters is essential: for the western world one does not really care much about dry bulk (iron ore/coal cargoes are mainly China focused meaning a disruption does not really affect the US/EU regions); you don’t really even care about tankers (freight costs is like 4% of oil price so to inflict real pain it becomes very difficult from a shipping cost perspective plus China has become the dominant importer in that market as well); but … you do care about containers. This is what hurts the most the average western consumer and for a good reason: containers transport most of the goods we use in our daily lives and we know and understand the price of. It relates to what is called the delivered price of a good. Push up the delivered price and suddenly you have inflation
🔶️ So, if you want to hurt the western world, you need to focus on what the Central Banks are trying so hard to contain: inflation. If supply chains get disrupted again, and that can really happen, it will matter greatly. And it will matter for what REALLY matters: all upcoming elections in the US/EU in 2024. Disruption is a game of chaos in a supply chain that strives for extreme optimization and JIT inventory management. And it does not take much to do so. But anything similar was an unimaginable scenario when inflation was not a risk for decades until Covid. But now it is. And a rebel group in southwest Yemen can affect the election outcome in a lot of “First World” countries this year. Remember the butterfly effect?
🔶️ Bulk commodities (oil, coal, iron ore, etc) can adjust to disruption as they are mostly fungible: local prices adjust a bit but would not affect the bigger picture much( take a look at NSea and SAm crude spreads this week and how rapidly they adjusted to the situation). Finished goods however are not, cause they are manufactured East and consumed West. Disrupt the East-West corridor for finished goods and you have leverage because prices will react positively and there is no adjustment path anywhere else.
🔶️ Expect this playbook to become part of the global geopolitical chess game for years to come. Straits, canals and waterways are going to play a much bigger role than even before in a world where inflicting economic pain in the Western world without real conflict is becoming much more difficult than ever before. Technology allows anyone to obtain RT information on vessel position, ownership and cargo details which makes it an easy game for bad actors with minimal resources. We are all about to become much better in oceanography and geography for the years to come…
📎 Breakwave
🇮🇷❌👑👑❗️ — Videos coming out of Iran, after the Internet ban, share some of the most gruesome and terrific images so far in this protest season
At least 10 protesters in Fardis, Karaj area of Alborz province of Iran, West of Tehran, were reportedly killed by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Troops under orders of the Islamic Republic Regime in Iran.
According to reports from netizens via Musk's Starlink, dozens of other deaths are being reported as having occurred in other locations on Iranian soil.
In one of the videos, it's possible hear in Persian/Farsi:
"Right in front of Fardis Police Station No. 11, a Toyota was pulled up and sprayed with gunfire.
People were mowed down with heavy weapons, machine-gun fire, indiscriminately."
🇻🇪 Call of Duty: Ghosts, PC Game, was released 12 years ago when Venzuela Maduro started his Presidency.
🇺🇸 In the game, US Military raid Venezuela at night and capture the Venezuelan Dictator.
In the game, it says this Event happens in the Year 2026.
- We are living in a Matrix
- We are in a Simulation
- There is a Script
- Remember the Charlie Kirk movie, Snake Eyes, which foretold his Death
🇬🇧 The Prevent video game that treats every teenager like a far-Right extremist
Youngsters threatened with referral to anti-terror programme if they question migration while playing
A state-funded computer game is warning teenagers that they risk being referred to a counter-terrorism programme if they question mass migration.
Pathways is an interactive game designed for 11- to 18-year-old pupils and funded by Prevent, a Home Office programme for tackling extremism.
Young players are directed to help their in-game characters – a white teenage boy and girl – to avoid being reported for “extreme Right-wing ideology” after discussing migration online.
Characters can face extremism referrals if they choose to engage with groups that spread “harmful ideological messages”, or join protests against the “erosion of British values”. Even researching online immigration statistics is portrayed negatively.
Other in-game pitfalls include sharing a video that claims Muslim men,...
IT KEEPS GETTING WORSE: A BURIED CIA VIDEO JUST SURFACED… AND ERIKA KIRK IS IN IT
https://x.com/hustlebitch_/status/2009688114923745442?s=46
A 10-year-old documentary about EMP attacks and U.S. power grid vulnerability has quietly surfaced - and buried inside it is Erika Kirk.
She’s not observing.
She’s not a host.
She’s in a role most civilians never get near, briefing national security professionals alongside a former CIA National Security & Energy Specialist on how an EMP or coordinated physical attack could collapse the U.S. power grid.
This isn’t casual footage.
It’s technical.
It’s inside-baseball.
And it’s the exact kind of material most people never get near, let alone present.
Which raises some very uncomfortable questions:
Why was she in that role?
What qualified her to brief on national security threats?
Who brought her into that room, and why is none of it explained?
Back then, this clip passed quietly. Today, with everything surrounding her, it ...
