We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🚢 🌍 🏴☠️ Why Attack Shipping: a thread
🔶️ The Houthi strategy looks primitive to most with the random attacks on ships sounding desperate and quite elemental in a world of AI and space exploration. But the game theory behind it is superb.
🔶️ Introducing shipping:
Shipping is an old world industry, global in nature, but greatly affecting everyone and every local economy differently. It operates in vast open oceans with minimal policing or regulation for centuries, and it works extremely well to support our everyday lifestyles. But in the last few years disruptions due to various factors have brought shipping to the forefront. Why suddenly shipping matters?
🔶️ Although there are so many different types of ships in a global commercial fleet of 80,000+ vessels, picking what matters is essential: for the western world one does not really care much about dry bulk (iron ore/coal cargoes are mainly China focused meaning a disruption does not really affect the US/EU regions); you don’t really even care about tankers (freight costs is like 4% of oil price so to inflict real pain it becomes very difficult from a shipping cost perspective plus China has become the dominant importer in that market as well); but … you do care about containers. This is what hurts the most the average western consumer and for a good reason: containers transport most of the goods we use in our daily lives and we know and understand the price of. It relates to what is called the delivered price of a good. Push up the delivered price and suddenly you have inflation
🔶️ So, if you want to hurt the western world, you need to focus on what the Central Banks are trying so hard to contain: inflation. If supply chains get disrupted again, and that can really happen, it will matter greatly. And it will matter for what REALLY matters: all upcoming elections in the US/EU in 2024. Disruption is a game of chaos in a supply chain that strives for extreme optimization and JIT inventory management. And it does not take much to do so. But anything similar was an unimaginable scenario when inflation was not a risk for decades until Covid. But now it is. And a rebel group in southwest Yemen can affect the election outcome in a lot of “First World” countries this year. Remember the butterfly effect?
🔶️ Bulk commodities (oil, coal, iron ore, etc) can adjust to disruption as they are mostly fungible: local prices adjust a bit but would not affect the bigger picture much( take a look at NSea and SAm crude spreads this week and how rapidly they adjusted to the situation). Finished goods however are not, cause they are manufactured East and consumed West. Disrupt the East-West corridor for finished goods and you have leverage because prices will react positively and there is no adjustment path anywhere else.
🔶️ Expect this playbook to become part of the global geopolitical chess game for years to come. Straits, canals and waterways are going to play a much bigger role than even before in a world where inflicting economic pain in the Western world without real conflict is becoming much more difficult than ever before. Technology allows anyone to obtain RT information on vessel position, ownership and cargo details which makes it an easy game for bad actors with minimal resources. We are all about to become much better in oceanography and geography for the years to come…
📎 Breakwave
Ukrainian forces have begun training and testing exoskeletons for battlefield use. Soldiers from the 147th Separate Artillery Brigade are using them in the Pokrovsk sector for both logistics and frontline operations. The goal is to reduce physical strain, especially when loading heavy artillery shells into howitzers without automatic loaders. Artillery crews can handle up to 1200 kg of ammunition per day, and early tests show that exoskeletons help them work faster and with less fatigue Above all, by improving the conditions for those soldiers on the front lines who handle such heavy loads, plus the stress of work. Seeking to reduce overall fatigue in the troops
🌆 Market News Digest
April 6, 2026 EST
🔥 Top Stories
• Trump warns Iran of imminent destruction of bridges & power plants by Tuesday midnight — escalating tensions with potential for severe infrastructure strikes.
• Oil prices rise as Trump deadline nears; US crude settles at $112.41/bbl — geopolitical uncertainty boosts energy markets.
• US stocks gain amid optimism over Iran ceasefire; S&P up 0.41% — markets react to diplomatic signals and oil price stability.
• IMF warns prolonged Middle East war will slow global growth & boost inflation — economic outlook darkens with conflict escalation.
• Trump claims Iran is at its weakest; threatens to decimate Iranian infrastructure — aggressive stance amid ongoing negotiations.
⛽ Oil & Energy
• US crude at $112.41/bbl, Brent at $109.77/bbl — energy markets volatile on Iran conflict fears.
• US considers charging tolls in Strait of Hormuz; free passage part of Iran deal — strategic move to control shipping lanes.
• ...
🇺🇸🇮🇷🇮🇱 - WAR IN IRAN | APRIL 5th, DAY 37 RECAP:
🇺🇸🇮🇷 - The NYT reports that during the operation in Iran, two U.S. transport aircraft intended to carry the airmen were disabled and abandoned, then blown up. Two MC-130J Combat King II rescue aircraft and four MH-6 Little Bird helicopters were deliberately destroyed by U.S. forces during the search and rescue mission in Iran, according to ABC News, citing U.S. officials.
🇮🇷🇦🇪 - Several fires have broken out at Abu Dhabi’s Borouge petrochemicals factory, with damage currently being assessed following an Iranian missile and drone attack. This comes less than 24 hours after Israel struck Iran’s largest petrochemical facility.
🇮🇷🇮🇱 - An Iranian ballistic missile impacted the Neot Hovav industrial zone near Beersheba in the first wave, the third time this industrial zone has been hit during the war.
🇺🇸🇮🇷 - "Tuesday will be Power Plant Day and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. ...
F15E SHOOTDOWN AND CSAR OPERATION — FULL VERIFIED BREAKDOWN
APRIL 3 — THE SHOOTDOWN
F15E from the 494th Fighter Squadron out of RAF Lakenheath is hit over southwestern Iran.
Crash site confirmed in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad Province near Dehdasht.
Wreckage includes ACES II ejection seat and tail section matching the squadron.
Cause
Iran claims it used a new IRGC air defense system.
Exact weapon system remains unconfirmed.
HOUR 0
Both crew eject.
Pilot activates survival radio and PRD immediately.
Contact established with U.S. aircraft overhead.
Pilot recovered within hours.
WSO lands separately in mountainous terrain.
WSO beacon briefly detected by satellites, then goes silent.
Reason unknown.
HOURS 1 TO 12
WSO begins evasion using SERE training.
Maintains intermittent encrypted communication with U.S. forces.
IRGC launches large scale search operation.
Iranian state TV urges civilians to report or capture the pilot.
Rewards up to $60,000 reported.
Public messaging includes calls to shoot on sight.
HOURS 12 TO 24
WSO moves into high ...
