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February 05, 2024
The savage

💢How do Ukrainian's avoid the draft?

“We have 3.4 million people who are not abroad, not in the Armed Forces, not disabled, not studying and not engaged, I don't know where all these people of draft age are, - deputy Natalukha

In order to avoid conscription, millions of men have stopped using credit cards, closed their bank accounts, and of course do not attempt to travel within the country.

Millions of men also have stopped using e-mail, digital passports, they dress as an old people on the streets, don’t live in the place of registration, use Monero and cash, don't pay taxes, use burner numbers for their social media accounts, and have joined telegram groups that tell people where army commissars are now.

The Parallel/shadow economy also exist. According to some data, 50% of Ukrainian economy is entirely grey and black market, and while official/government firms in Ukraine must provide people for conscription - the businesses that operate in the shadows obviously do not. Which is the point.

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🌆 Market News Digest
[July 3, 2026 EST]

🔥 Top Stories
• Middle East risk flares — IDF hits Hezbollah sites in south Lebanon; Houthis threaten Saudi assets; France deploys naval/mine-countermeasure assets near Hormuz.
• U.S. oil market scrutiny — DOJ/FTC say they’re monitoring crude for price-fixing/collusion as Brent settles at $72.12/bbl.
• Trump pardons saga — Trump signs pardons for six and faces fresh scrutiny after NBC reported undisclosed stock purchases before tariff pause.

⛽ Oil & Energy
• Gulf crude exports topped 10M bpd in June but remain ~40% below pre-conflict levels; Fitch flags ongoing Iran/Mideast risk to corporates and oil forecasts.
• CMA CGM warns Hormuz transit charges would be “devastating”; Airbus says defense cooperation remains pressured.

📊 Markets & Macro
• Germany’s 2027 draft budget lifts borrowing to €203.7B and spending to €555.4B; euro equities firm with DAX +0.85%.
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