The Congressional Budget Office’s TFR forecasts for the United States are extremely optimistic. They see TFR increasing from this year onward and eventually returning to 1.7 by 2035. Based on current trends what is a bit more likely is TFR declining to ~1.5 and then gradually rising to ~1.6 by 2035.
🇺🇸👶 1.3 TFR is now within the realm of the possible for the United States
1.3 by 2030 would work out to only around 2.65 million births a year so if that happened we would have negative growth of 400,000+ annually. That would be devastating.
📎 Demographics Now and Then
British man attacked for entering a ‘no-go zone’ in London.
A horde of Islamists surrounded him and questioned why he was in ‘their’ neighborhood.
They threatened him and began chanting ‘Allahu Akbar’ as they kicked him out.
A 65-year-old couple retiring in 2025 with average earnings will receive an estimated $1.34 million in lifetime benefits, while contributing only $720,000 in today’s dollars.
That shortfall—more than $600,000 per couple—is being made up by younger workers.
“Most of the growth in spending has gone to retirement and healthcare, while programs that promote upward mobility... have been left behind”
https://www.newsweek.com/social-security-medicare-young-workers-cost-10477619