The Congressional Budget Office’s TFR forecasts for the United States are extremely optimistic. They see TFR increasing from this year onward and eventually returning to 1.7 by 2035. Based on current trends what is a bit more likely is TFR declining to ~1.5 and then gradually rising to ~1.6 by 2035.

🇺🇸👶 1.3 TFR is now within the realm of the possible for the United States

1.3 by 2030 would work out to only around 2.65 million births a year so if that happened we would have negative growth of 400,000+ annually. That would be devastating.

📎 Demographics Now and Then