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February 14, 2024
Theory

Serious national security threat" allegedly related to Russia - CNN

House Intel Committee Chair Mike Turner reveals a "serious national security threat" allegedly related to Russia (CNN).

On Wednesday, Turner released a letter regarding an urgent matter "with regard to a destabilizing foreign military capability."

One source, according to CNN, says "it is, in fact, highly concerning and destabilizing."

Turner is calling for all intelligence regarding the threat available to members of Congress.

"Today, the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence has made available to all Members of Congress information concerning a serious national security threat," he said.

"I am requesting that President Biden declassify all information relating to this threat so that Congress, the Administration, and our allies can openly discuss the actions necessary to respond to this threat."

U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, announced today:

"The 'Gang of Eight,' will hold a meeting tomorrow to discuss today's 'National Security Development. At the time I'm not in a position to say anything further."

The 'Gang of Eight,' consists of bipartisan leaders from the Senate and House of Representatives, as well as other ranking members.

There are several theories about this big and serious event in the US events:

  • They want to do some bullshit to get around the vote on the $95 billion package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, and pass it without a vote, which is still stalled and not fully voted on. It is possible that with this situation they will enable Biden to bypass the Senate and approve the aid package.

  • It is possible that there is some connection with Iran and not with Russia, and that Iran has officially received nuclear weapons, although it is already clear to everyone that it has them.

Serious national security threat" allegedly related to Russia - CNN

House Intel Committee Chair Mike Turner reveals a "serious national security threat" allegedly related to Russia (CNN).

On Wednesday, Turner released a letter regarding an urgent matter "with regard to a destabilizing foreign military capability."

One source, according to CNN, says "it is, in fact, highly concerning and destabilizing."

Turner is calling for all intelligence regarding the threat available to members of Congress.

"Today, the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence has made available to all Members of Congress information concerning a serious national security threat," he said.

"I am requesting that President Biden declassify all information relating to this threat so that Congress, the Administration, and our allies can openly discuss the actions necessary to respond to this threat."

U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, announced today:

"The 'Gang of Eight,' will hold a meeting tomorrow to discuss today's 'National Security Development. At the time I'm not in a position to say anything further."

The 'Gang of Eight,' consists of bipartisan leaders from the Senate and House of Representatives, as well as other ranking members.

There are several theories about this big and serious event in the US events:

  • They want to do some bullshit to get around the vote on the $95 billion package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, and pass it without a vote, which is still stalled and not fully voted on. It is possible that with this situation they will enable Biden to bypass the Senate and approve the aid package.

  • It is possible that there is some connection with Iran and not with Russia, and that Iran has officially received nuclear weapons, although it is already clear to everyone that it has them.

Serious national security threat" allegedly related to Russia - CNN

House Intel Committee Chair Mike Turner reveals a "serious national security threat" allegedly related to Russia (CNN).

On Wednesday, Turner released a letter regarding an urgent matter "with regard to a destabilizing foreign military capability."

One source, according to CNN, says "it is, in fact, highly concerning and destabilizing."

Turner is calling for all intelligence regarding the threat available to members of Congress.

"Today, the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence has made available to all Members of Congress information concerning a serious national security threat," he said.

"I am requesting that President Biden declassify all information relating to this threat so that Congress, the Administration, and our allies can openly discuss the actions necessary to respond to this threat."

U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, announced today:

"The 'Gang of Eight,' will hold a meeting tomorrow to discuss today's 'National Security Development. At the time I'm not in a position to say anything further."

The 'Gang of Eight,' consists of bipartisan leaders from the Senate and House of Representatives, as well as other ranking members.

There are several theories about this big and serious event in the US events:

  • They want to do some bullshit to get around the vote on the $95 billion package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, and pass it without a vote, which is still stalled and not fully voted on. It is possible that with this situation they will enable Biden to bypass the Senate and approve the aid package.

  • It is possible that there is some connection with Iran and not with Russia, and that Iran has officially received nuclear weapons, although it is already clear to everyone that it has them.

  • Given the nature of the statement, which described the intelligence as 'extremely sensitive', this new and unnamed 'Russian ability', whatever it may be, is likely an ability that the United States DO NOT currently have. Hence the need for immediate action.

Considering the fact that Russia already has nukes, chemical weapons and so on, it could be something entirely different. However, it could also be something related to nukes, like a new delivery mechanism of nuclear missiles, or ICBM interception capability (think of Reagan's failed 'Strategic Defense Initiative').

If this Russian capability is truly something that fundamentally threatens the balance of power between Russia and the U.S., we might be in for a new arms race. (@Middle_East_Spectator very good theory)

t.me/megatron_ron

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Oilprice.com

Two months after the U.S. and Israel bombed Iran on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for most tanker traffic, forcing more than 10 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude output shut-ins across the Middle Eastern oil producers.

The two-month-long closure of the Strait of Hormuz is longer than analysts had expected at the start of the war. Most assumed back then that the Strait would open by April and producers could restart shut-in wells in May.

Even if the Strait of Hormuz opened to free tanker traffic today, oil supply from the Middle East will take months to start flowing again and reach consumers in Asia, who were the first to feel the supply shock.

The longer the chokepoint remains off limits to most tanker traffic, the worse the scars would be on global supply and economic growth.

The restart of thousands of oil wells across the Middle East would be a big challenge. Some countries would need weeks, but others – like Iraq – many months to bring ...

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R I C E

🍚 War on Iran & El Niño threaten world rice production

Global rice supply is expected to decline this year as farmers across Asia reduce planting areas due to fertilizer shortages and higher fuel costs linked to the US-Israeli war on Iran, while an emerging El Niño weather pattern is also likely to further limit production of the world’s most widely consumed staple.

The impact of the war in West Asia is being felt by farmers in major exporting countries such as Thailand and Vietnam, as well as in import-dependent nations like the Philippines and Indonesia, according to growers and traders. Disruptions to fuel and fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global shipping chokepoint linking the Gulf to international markets, have contributed to the strain.

Smallholder farmers in Southeast Asia are also facing added pressure as El Niño is expected to bring hotter and drier conditions in the second half of the year.

🔗 The Cradle

Oil will get bad

🛢 “Why aren’t oil prices higher?” “How can the oil market be so complacent?”

Oil prices almost always trade to extremes. Right before it does, it always gets “obvious” from a fundamental setup standpoint.

I remember a great conversation I had with Nelson Wu of Open Square Capital about the oil market being analogous to toilet paper. You don’t realize how badly you need it until you run out of it.

Oil prices trade on the margin. As long as there are onshore inventories to draw from, traders don’t panic. It’s when you run low on onshore inventories that panic starts to set in.

Goldman published an update on Thursday that basically captured the storage math phenomenon that we are seeing:

Global visible total oil inventories remain bloated relative to historical standards. If, for example, we had started the conflict with global oil inventories at the 2025 lows, WTI and Brent would already be above $200/bbl.

The ~1.4 billion bbl cushion at the start of 2026 is what gave the US ...

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