We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🇮🇱❌🇵🇸 A quick Israel-Gaza War thread on why dismantling Hamas as a military organization is quite hard, if not impossible:
This is an overly simplified illustration of the force structure of a Hamas battalion derived from reports as well as videos/imagery produced by the IDF, Hamas and others. Each green dot is a individual fighter, the blue boxes denote "tangible combat assets/kit", hypothetically located in fixed locations. Yellow rings around green circles denote individuals in leadership roles (who are presumably institutionally promotable).
Caveat emptor, the only organizations that actually have access to Hamas' Tables of Organization and Equipment (TOEs) are Hamas and the IRGC (maybe). The IDF and US IC can see fragments of it, but not the whole picture, so this thread is speaking purely in broad brushstrokes.
First and foremost, unlike in most highly bureaucratized militaries, Hamas (and it appears most of Gaza's other militant orgs) devolve a massively outsized share of both their organizational logistical responsibilities and their combat power down to the "cell" level.
Think of their cells as being akin to Western-style fireteams with a handful of guys (a quick aside, Hamas 'does' have a formal rank/structure hierarchy - i.e. cells → to squads → to platoons → companies → brigades). There are multiple cells in a squad (so the above graphic really should have 2 or 3 of the blue blocks per squad).
Every cell is supposed to maintain/have a semi-standardized allotment of kit. The most shoddily equipped units have a mixture of RPGs and AKs, but some (well... most apparently) cells have better/more niche equipment, e.g. EFPs and ballistic protection. There are also specialized anti-tank and sniper teams, but I haven't seen any footage of their caches being pinched. (...)
Hamas' military is fundamentally a devolved hierarchy with a bottom-heavy logistical structure. That is to say, their units are specifically designed to operate in a semi-autonomous fashion, as opposed to functioning in larger cohesive units. (...)
With organizations like Hamas, because they're not necessarily functioning as discrete units like most Westerners are accustomed to, neutralizing their battalion echelon and above leaders or blowing up their larger supply hubs, does not in and of itself render their units incapable of fighting or "destroy them."
That's why, reports of the "destruction" of Hamas battalions/brigades are usually dramatically overstated.
📎 Analytica Camillus
🧵 https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1759114538903834880.html
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Source
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• Middle East risk flares — IDF hits Hezbollah sites in south Lebanon; Houthis threaten Saudi assets; France deploys naval/mine-countermeasure assets near Hormuz.
• U.S. oil market scrutiny — DOJ/FTC say they’re monitoring crude for price-fixing/collusion as Brent settles at $72.12/bbl.
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⛽ Oil & Energy
• Gulf crude exports topped 10M bpd in June but remain ~40% below pre-conflict levels; Fitch flags ongoing Iran/Mideast risk to corporates and oil forecasts.
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📊 Markets & Macro
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🇮🇷🏆🇺🇸 Iran Is a Bigger Defeat Than Vietnam | Foreign Policy
At his second inaugural, U.S. President Donald Trump pronounced his hope “that our recent presidential election will be remembered as the greatest and most consequential election in the history of our country.” By losing his Gulf war, Trump has achieved that goal. His choice to launch a campaign against Iran was encouraged by others, but fully his own. It has led to a reversal that marks a strategic calamity far greater than the U.S. defeat in the Vietnam War.
Defeat in the Iranian war looks, on the surface, nothing like other U.S. military defeats. The speed of the war and its remoteness have lent an air of unreality to the whole endeavor. The White House has not been burned, as it was in 1814; there have not been protests against a nonexistent draft. The absence of substantial U.S. casualties in this conflict also masks the scale of the U.S. defeat. To be sure, the war has been deadly: Thousands of Iranians, ...
According to The Wall Street Journal, Donald Trump reviewed military options for a full-scale war against Iran to “finish the job,” but has decided, for now, not to move forward.
The report says Trump is concerned that renewed military conflict could hurt the chances of a diplomatic resolution and of dismantling Iran’s nuclear program, and that he’s shown willingness to let indirect talks in Qatar run past the August 18 deadline. He is said to be fine with continuing limited strikes on Iranian targets if Tehran violates the current temporary deal - as it already has, repeatedly.
How are those negotiations going?
Not well. It seems JD Vance’s “historic” face-to-face achievement was a one-off. Washington has been quietly downgraded from talking to the Great Satan to negotiating with the Little Satan instead - a senior Qatari official confirmed that U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Qatari officials in Doha, but there are currently no high-level U.S.-Iran meetings ...
