We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🇺🇸🇨🇳🇮🇱🇵🇸 The clear lesson here: Do not rely on our ability to predict if or when China might attack Taiwan — Elbridge Colby
Instead: Be ready.
“Some, perhaps subconsciously, are eager to have intelligence as a convenient scapegoat should debacles occur. But it falls to policymakers to realize that intelligence is always imperfect. For this reason, prediction should never take the place of preparedness.” — Elbridge Colby
How Was Israel Caught Off-Guard?
Hamas’ Oct. 7 attacks did not happen out of the blue. They were preceded by years of bitter conflict, ever since the group consolidated its control of the Gaza Strip in 2007. Months later, it remains deeply puzzling how Israel was caught so woefully unprepared.
Conventional explanations advanced over the years by numerous scholars and practitioners analyzing similar historical fiascoes provide part of the answer. The surprise can be attributed to abundant noise, deception, wishful thinking, groupthink, and failure of imagination. Nevertheless, careful analysis of the case at hand highlights several additional factors. The degree of surprise reflected an intelligence-collection shortfall on Hamas’ intentions.
There was an over-reliance on warning systems, a misguided policy and military attitude toward Hamas, and a toxic relationship between Israel’s top leadership and its defense and intelligence establishment. These factors both distracted the establishment and systematically discouraged a confrontation with Hamas. Taken together, these factors underscore the need for countries to recalibrate their expectations regarding warnings of potential attacks and to put a newfound emphasis on readiness rather than prediction.
🔗 https://warontherocks.com/2024/02/how-was-israel-caught-off-guard/
📎 Elbridge Colby
Ukrainian forces have begun training and testing exoskeletons for battlefield use. Soldiers from the 147th Separate Artillery Brigade are using them in the Pokrovsk sector for both logistics and frontline operations. The goal is to reduce physical strain, especially when loading heavy artillery shells into howitzers without automatic loaders. Artillery crews can handle up to 1200 kg of ammunition per day, and early tests show that exoskeletons help them work faster and with less fatigue Above all, by improving the conditions for those soldiers on the front lines who handle such heavy loads, plus the stress of work. Seeking to reduce overall fatigue in the troops
🇺🇸❌🇮🇷 — Ground clashes are occuring between IRGC soldiers and American CSAR troops. American soldiers are inside Iran.
@GeoPWatch
⚡🇺🇸 Rumors have emerged that President Trump is in the hospital as all roads leading to Walter Reed Medical Center have been cordoned off and a "lid" has been called today by the White House, meaning Trump won't appear in public.
The White House has denied the rumors and it is Saturday, but those are the rumors.
@medmannews
🇺🇸🇮🇷🇮🇱 - WAR IN IRAN | APRIL 3rd, DAY 35 RECAP:
🇮🇷🇰🇼 - Iran has struck the Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery in Kuwait. Multiple fires have been reported.
🇱🇧🇮🇱 - “The disarmament of Hezbollah is not one of the objectives of the IDF’s fighting in Lebanon at this stage,” the IDF said.
🇮🇷🇰🇼 - Iran has struck a Kuwaiti power and desalination plant, causing damage, according to the Kuwait Ministry of Electricity.
🇮🇷🇦🇪 - Habshan gas facilities in Abu Dhabi have temporarily suspended operations after a fire broke out due to an Iranian attack.
🇫🇷🇮🇷 - A French-owned cargo ship crossed the Strait of Hormuz earlier this morning. It was broadcasting its position and planned route openly and encountered no incident.
🇺🇸🇮🇷 - A U.S. F-15 fighter jet was shot down over southwestern Iran. One pilot has been rescued, while the second is still missing, according to the Pentagon.
🇮🇷🇶🇦🇵🇰 - “In a dramatic turn of ...
