We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🇺🇸🇨🇳🇮🇱🇵🇸 The clear lesson here: Do not rely on our ability to predict if or when China might attack Taiwan — Elbridge Colby
Instead: Be ready.
“Some, perhaps subconsciously, are eager to have intelligence as a convenient scapegoat should debacles occur. But it falls to policymakers to realize that intelligence is always imperfect. For this reason, prediction should never take the place of preparedness.” — Elbridge Colby
How Was Israel Caught Off-Guard?
Hamas’ Oct. 7 attacks did not happen out of the blue. They were preceded by years of bitter conflict, ever since the group consolidated its control of the Gaza Strip in 2007. Months later, it remains deeply puzzling how Israel was caught so woefully unprepared.
Conventional explanations advanced over the years by numerous scholars and practitioners analyzing similar historical fiascoes provide part of the answer. The surprise can be attributed to abundant noise, deception, wishful thinking, groupthink, and failure of imagination. Nevertheless, careful analysis of the case at hand highlights several additional factors. The degree of surprise reflected an intelligence-collection shortfall on Hamas’ intentions.
There was an over-reliance on warning systems, a misguided policy and military attitude toward Hamas, and a toxic relationship between Israel’s top leadership and its defense and intelligence establishment. These factors both distracted the establishment and systematically discouraged a confrontation with Hamas. Taken together, these factors underscore the need for countries to recalibrate their expectations regarding warnings of potential attacks and to put a newfound emphasis on readiness rather than prediction.
đź”— https://warontherocks.com/2024/02/how-was-israel-caught-off-guard/
đź“Ž Elbridge Colby
⚖️ 🇺🇸 🏛 He Who Decides the Exception: Trump Should Disregard the Supreme Court’s National Guard Ruling
⬛️ Judicial overreach mustn’t be permitted to trample the public necessity.
🔶️ The Supreme Court has again reminded the country that, in the American system, the judiciary can halt executive action with the stroke of a pen—this time keeping in place a lower-court order blocking President Trump’s attempt to federalize and deploy National Guard forces to protect besieged immigration enforcement operations in and around Chicago.
🔶️ The point was that a republic cannot outsource its highest political judgments to a tribunal without hollowing out self-government. Put those threads together—Cicero’s salus populi, Aquinas’ equity, Locke’s prerogative, Hamilton’s executive energy, Jefferson’s coordinate construction, Jackson’s independence, Lincoln’s warning—and you get a tradition that modern progressives and libertarians alike often deny ...
This is no longer a red-versus-blue spectator sport or partisan cheerleading exercise. The macro reality is brutally apolitical. The United States is functionally bankrupt, as Ron Paul has warned for decades, and the evidence is now manifesting in collapsing purchasing power. The price of acquiring real money—gold and silver—has surged roughly 200% in just two years, a silent tax that represents systemic looting via monetary debasement. We are drifting toward a sovereign debt crisis unprecedented in the entire history of fiat currency regimes. Even conservative frameworks, like Jim Rickards’ back-of-the-napkin gold revaluation tied to balance-sheet realities, imply a potential trajectory toward $27,000 per ounce. You don’t need to be a “gold bug” to recognize risk management: allocating even 10% of depreciating Federal Reserve notes into real money is simple capital preservation. It’s not about upside speculation—it’s about avoiding total annihilation if real money ...
