We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🇺🇸🇨🇳🇮🇱🇵🇸 The clear lesson here: Do not rely on our ability to predict if or when China might attack Taiwan — Elbridge Colby
Instead: Be ready.
“Some, perhaps subconsciously, are eager to have intelligence as a convenient scapegoat should debacles occur. But it falls to policymakers to realize that intelligence is always imperfect. For this reason, prediction should never take the place of preparedness.” — Elbridge Colby
How Was Israel Caught Off-Guard?
Hamas’ Oct. 7 attacks did not happen out of the blue. They were preceded by years of bitter conflict, ever since the group consolidated its control of the Gaza Strip in 2007. Months later, it remains deeply puzzling how Israel was caught so woefully unprepared.
Conventional explanations advanced over the years by numerous scholars and practitioners analyzing similar historical fiascoes provide part of the answer. The surprise can be attributed to abundant noise, deception, wishful thinking, groupthink, and failure of imagination. Nevertheless, careful analysis of the case at hand highlights several additional factors. The degree of surprise reflected an intelligence-collection shortfall on Hamas’ intentions.
There was an over-reliance on warning systems, a misguided policy and military attitude toward Hamas, and a toxic relationship between Israel’s top leadership and its defense and intelligence establishment. These factors both distracted the establishment and systematically discouraged a confrontation with Hamas. Taken together, these factors underscore the need for countries to recalibrate their expectations regarding warnings of potential attacks and to put a newfound emphasis on readiness rather than prediction.
🔗 https://warontherocks.com/2024/02/how-was-israel-caught-off-guard/
📎 Elbridge Colby
British man attacked for entering a ‘no-go zone’ in London.
A horde of Islamists surrounded him and questioned why he was in ‘their’ neighborhood.
They threatened him and began chanting ‘Allahu Akbar’ as they kicked him out.
Minister of State for Courts and MP for Finchley and Golders Green, Sarah Sackman, says religious courts like 'Shariah' are a fundamental part of 'British Values'.
A 65-year-old couple retiring in 2025 with average earnings will receive an estimated $1.34 million in lifetime benefits, while contributing only $720,000 in today’s dollars.
That shortfall—more than $600,000 per couple—is being made up by younger workers.
“Most of the growth in spending has gone to retirement and healthcare, while programs that promote upward mobility... have been left behind”
https://www.newsweek.com/social-security-medicare-young-workers-cost-10477619
