We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🇺🇸🇨🇳🇮🇱🇵🇸 The clear lesson here: Do not rely on our ability to predict if or when China might attack Taiwan — Elbridge Colby
Instead: Be ready.
“Some, perhaps subconsciously, are eager to have intelligence as a convenient scapegoat should debacles occur. But it falls to policymakers to realize that intelligence is always imperfect. For this reason, prediction should never take the place of preparedness.” — Elbridge Colby
How Was Israel Caught Off-Guard?
Hamas’ Oct. 7 attacks did not happen out of the blue. They were preceded by years of bitter conflict, ever since the group consolidated its control of the Gaza Strip in 2007. Months later, it remains deeply puzzling how Israel was caught so woefully unprepared.
Conventional explanations advanced over the years by numerous scholars and practitioners analyzing similar historical fiascoes provide part of the answer. The surprise can be attributed to abundant noise, deception, wishful thinking, groupthink, and failure of imagination. Nevertheless, careful analysis of the case at hand highlights several additional factors. The degree of surprise reflected an intelligence-collection shortfall on Hamas’ intentions.
There was an over-reliance on warning systems, a misguided policy and military attitude toward Hamas, and a toxic relationship between Israel’s top leadership and its defense and intelligence establishment. These factors both distracted the establishment and systematically discouraged a confrontation with Hamas. Taken together, these factors underscore the need for countries to recalibrate their expectations regarding warnings of potential attacks and to put a newfound emphasis on readiness rather than prediction.
🔗 https://warontherocks.com/2024/02/how-was-israel-caught-off-guard/
📎 Elbridge Colby
Humanitarian lawyer and ex-aid worker Andrew MacLeod exposes the involvement of UN security staff in the sex trafficking of young girls, who were kept in cages and abused as sex slaves, with the full knowledge of the UN's leadership.
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Dr. David Martin: "Remdesivir was too unethical to put into Ebola clinical trials in Africa because it had a 53% kill rate."
"But it was chosen in April and May of 2020 to be the drug of choice to treat Covid... despite the fact that the World Health Organisation said it was unethical to use it."
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Serious allegations from former CIA officer Larry Johnson about Senator Lindsey Graham: “There will be news coming out in the next couple of months about how he has profited financially off of money that came out of Ukraine, laundered through Latvia and made it way into his bank account. And now we're talking significant amounts of money. Department of justice is looking at it.”
🇮🇱 ❌ 🇮🇷 🛢 📈 — Deutsche Bank: Oil Prices will go to $125/barrel if the Iran-Israel conflict spills over into the Straight of Hormuz
@CIG_Telegram
Developments in the Iran-Israel war. It is currently 1:11am in Tel Aviv and 1:42am in Tehran.
Main points:
Iran and Israel have started targeting each other’s energy infrastructure.
Iranian missiles continued to target and impact northern and central Israel.
Israel has started targeting Iranian oil infrastructure, including oil refineries and oil depots.
Israeli airstrikes continue to target various parts of Tehran and the surrounding areas.
Iranian air defence seems to finally be doing some damage to Israeli missiles and drones. In turn, Israel has deployed dozens of small quadcopters and loitering munitions to waste Iranian air defence and saturate for larger attacks with cruise missiles.
Drones launched from Iran and factions in Iraq continue to target northern and southern Israel.
Missiles & drones:
2 rockets were launched from the Khan Younis area of southern Gaza by an unknown Palestinian faction. Neither were intercepted, with the IDF claiming they hit an open area with no casualties.
2 rockets were ...
OIL MARKETS REACT SHARPLY TO ESCALATING MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS
📈 WTI CRUDE IS NOW FORECAST TO HIT $94.10 BY YEAR-END, UP OVER $21 IN A WEEK, ACCORDING TO KALSHI MARKETS.
THE JUMP FOLLOWS IRAN’S CANCELLATION OF NUCLEAR TALKS WITH THE U.S., CITING ISRAELI AIRSTRIKES. WITH TENSIONS RISING, MARKETS ARE PRICING IN THE RISK OF REGIONAL ESCALATION AND POTENTIAL DISRUPTION TO OIL FLOWS THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, A KEY ROUTE FOR 20% OF GLOBAL OIL.
ANALYSTS WARN THAT A FULL CLOSURE OF THE STRAIT COULD PUSH PRICES ABOVE $120–$150 PER BARREL. ...
