We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🇺🇸🇨🇳🇮🇱🇵🇸 The clear lesson here: Do not rely on our ability to predict if or when China might attack Taiwan — Elbridge Colby
Instead: Be ready.
“Some, perhaps subconsciously, are eager to have intelligence as a convenient scapegoat should debacles occur. But it falls to policymakers to realize that intelligence is always imperfect. For this reason, prediction should never take the place of preparedness.” — Elbridge Colby
How Was Israel Caught Off-Guard?
Hamas’ Oct. 7 attacks did not happen out of the blue. They were preceded by years of bitter conflict, ever since the group consolidated its control of the Gaza Strip in 2007. Months later, it remains deeply puzzling how Israel was caught so woefully unprepared.
Conventional explanations advanced over the years by numerous scholars and practitioners analyzing similar historical fiascoes provide part of the answer. The surprise can be attributed to abundant noise, deception, wishful thinking, groupthink, and failure of imagination. Nevertheless, careful analysis of the case at hand highlights several additional factors. The degree of surprise reflected an intelligence-collection shortfall on Hamas’ intentions.
There was an over-reliance on warning systems, a misguided policy and military attitude toward Hamas, and a toxic relationship between Israel’s top leadership and its defense and intelligence establishment. These factors both distracted the establishment and systematically discouraged a confrontation with Hamas. Taken together, these factors underscore the need for countries to recalibrate their expectations regarding warnings of potential attacks and to put a newfound emphasis on readiness rather than prediction.
🔗 https://warontherocks.com/2024/02/how-was-israel-caught-off-guard/
📎 Elbridge Colby
🇺🇸🇮🇷⚡️- “U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) completed another round of strikes against Iran at 9 p.m. ET, July 20.
U.S. forces struck Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and air defense systems to degrade Iran's ability to continue attacking commercial vessels flowing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Commercial vessel transits through the vital international maritime corridor continue. Since early May, CENTCOM forces have helped facilitate the transit of approximately 900 commercial vessels and 450 million barrels of crude oil.
American forces remain postured and prepared to hold Iran accountable for unwarranted aggression toward civilian mariners seeking to freely and openly transit the strait.” - U.S. Central Command.
“This is insane!” — A new vaccine is on the market called VAXELIS lt has 6 VACCINES in ONE SHOT for 6-WEEK-OLD BABIES...6 Infants Died In Trials.
How can this be allowed to happen ?
Dr. Jeff Barke
Mike
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🌆 Market News Digest
[2026-07-19 17:00–2026-07-20 16:30 EST]
🔥 Top Stories
• U.S.-Iran conflict escalates — fresh U.S. strikes, Iranian retaliation, and talks/ceasefire chatter keep markets on edge
• Oil surges on Hormuz risk — Brent topped $90 intraday, WTI near $83, with tanker incidents and Saudi/Hormuz shipping threats
• Trump escalates pressure on Iran — says Iran will “pay” for U.S. deaths; U.S. adds aircraft and signals next campaign phase
• Canada CPI cools — headline CPI eased to 2.8% y/y, supporting easier BoC path and denting CAD
• UK government reset — Starmer resigned; Burnham took over with a reshuffled cabinet, pledging fiscal rules but more flexibility
⛽ Oil & Energy
• Tankers hit / shipping disrupted — fires, explosions and drone threats in Strait of Hormuz, Bahrain, Kuwait and off Oman
• Chevron shuts Petronius output — Gulf platform shut-in as storm risk adds to energy supply worries
• CPC oil loadings suspended — attacks on tankers halt Kazakhstan ...
⛽️ While the price of crude oil is still below the prices seen during the peak of the 3rd Gulf War fighting, diesel prices on the other hand are surging and surpassed their peak in May.
Diesel is the most important fuel for the global economy, widely used in agriculture to fuel tractors and combine-harvesters.
@CIG_telegram
