We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🇷🇺⚫️ CIG #commentary | Despite solid evidence that the Islamic State is behind the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack, with ISIS themselves claiming responsibility, Russian news channels and other pro-Russian Western pundits are pushing the narrative that Ukraine and Vladimir Zelensky are the real masterminds.
Vladimir Putin and the Federal Security Service (FSB) are trying to cover up their embarrassing failure which allowed 4 jihadists to torch a concert hall in Moscow and kill over 143 people and then attempt an escape after receiving a heads up from U.S. intelligence three weeks ago about potential ISIS/ISKP activity in Russia. They are trying to spin it up as being the work of the SBU by falsely claiming that the terrorists are either Chechens and are affiliated with the Ajnad-al-Kavkaz group or that they are simply jihadist Tadjiks recruited by Ukraine and fight an irregular war against Russia.
Perhaps after annihilating two ISKP cells in Ingushetia earlier this month, the FSB let its guard down thinking they terminated all threats coming from ISKP but they were wrong. The ISKP remains ISIS' strongest and most prolific franchise with a number of cells in Afghanistan and Pakistan, with links to jihadists in India and likely receiving aid from Pakistani intelligence.
The ISKP has been able to penetrate Iran, bombing the city of Kerman in January 2024, where IRGC general, Qassem Soleimani is buried.
ISIS is on the rise again not just in Central Asia, but also in the Middle East, now that the eyes of the powers who were dealing with ISIS are focused elsewhere, Russia's FSB on Ukrainian sabotage, Iran and the U.S. on events in Gaza and Lebanon. Attacks like the Crocus City Hall will become more common unless the security agencies all over the world take ISIS and its branches seriously.
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🇺🇸 #Oklahoma high school principal (Kirk Moore) seen charging at and disarming a school shooter.
The suspect, identified as 20-year-old Victor Hawkins, was a former student who said he wanted to shoot up the school “like the Columbine shooters did.” While taking down the shooter, Moore was shot in the leg. He is expected to recover.
When the Principal woke up that day, he never thought he would be tackling a gunman.
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🇨🇳🛢 How much strategic oil does the world actually have in reserve?
Global strategic crude oil inventories stood at ~2.5 BILLION barrels as of December 2025, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
China holds by far the largest stockpile at 1,397 million barrels, more than 3 times the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve of 413 million barrels, which itself sits at only 58% of its full storage capacity of 714 million barrels.
China added an average of 1.1 million barrels per day to its strategic inventories throughout 2025, with preliminary data suggesting it continued building stockpiles in early 2026 ahead of the Iran War.
Japan holds the 3rd-largest reserve at 263 million barrels, followed by OECD European countries at 179 million barrels.
Meanwhile, the US is releasing 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to suppress oil prices, part of a broader 400 million barrel coordinated release agreed by 32 IEA member nations in March.
🔗 ...
🛢 JP Morgan Warns Oil Market Out of Balance, Prices Must Rise
🔸The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows, has removed 13.7 million barrels per day from global supply in April alone. A JP Morgan research note warns the market has no good way to replace it.
🔸Normally, spare production capacity in Saudi Arabia and the UAE acts as the market’s shock absorber. But that buffer has effectively been removed, eliminating the system’s first line of defense.
🔸With spare capacity unavailable, markets turned to inventories
➤ Global stockpiles are now being drained at ~7.1 mbd in April, an extraordinary pace, according to the note.
🔸Meanwhile, demand is collapsing because supply simply isn’t reaching users — “forced demand destruction.”The hardest hit sectors include:
▪️ Petrochemical plants across Asia are shutting down or slashing output as LPG, ethane, and naphtha flows from the Gulf collapse
▪️ Airline jet fuel ...
🛢⛽️ Global oil inventories are heading toward RECORD LOWS:
Global visible oil inventories have fallen -255 million barrels since the start of the conflict on February 27, to 7,864 million barrels.
Total estimated oil draws, including non-OECD refined products storage, have accelerated to 10.9 million barrels per day in April, the largest monthly draws on record since 2017.
Cumulative estimated draws since the start of the war now stand at 474 million barrels, with Hormuz flows holding at ~10% of normal, or 2.0 million barrels per day.
Meanwhile, even in an optimistic scenario where Strait of Hormuz flows begin recovering by late April, it is unlikely to prevent global visible inventories from reaching all-time lows, according to Goldman Sachs.
As inventories keep falling, physical oil markets are likely to require sharply higher prices for immediate delivery, since buyers cannot wait months for cheaper futures delivery when stocks are running critically low.
Goldman also warns...
