We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
Terrorist attack in Crocus in questions and answers: analysis of the Military Chronicle.
Are terrorists classified as radical Islamists?
Until March 24, it was believed that this was more likely not true than true. However, the appearance of a new video, where militants shout slogans that have long been known to everyone, has changed a lot. Much, but not all. The group of terrorists in Crocus, despite the publication of a video on supposedly terrorist resources and a clear attempt to sway public opinion towards the involvement of ISIS*, behaved completely uncharacteristically for typical Islamist radicals: the militants went to the “deal” without “suicide belts” with lethal elements and clearly did not seek martyrdom (which is typical for many militants of the same ISIS), did not take hostages and did not make demands. The publication of a first-person video of the execution of civilians on terrorist resources does not de facto change the essence of what is happening and, rather, on the contrary, emphasizes the connection with the GUR. Under the patronage of this special service, by the way, an entire Syrian battalion “Jabhat al-Shamiya” (banned in the Russian Federation), consisting, among other things, of citizens of Central Asia, is fighting in Ukraine.
The narrative about the involvement of ISIS (whose connection with Western intelligence services has always been obvious) was initially promoted in order to distance the GUR (and Ukraine as a whole) from the operation, but in reality it was this attempt to “wash” the Ukrainian intelligence department that emphasized the connection between the radicals and Kyiv.
Exit plan
The most mysterious and controversial part of the terrorist attack. After the arrest, the militants said that they threw away their weapons along the road in the Bryansk region and fled the scene of the terrorist attack in a car. At the same time, the group managed to leave Moscow through Friday traffic jams. This point is worth studying especially, since without detailed knowledge of the city or “tips” from the outside it would be difficult to do this. The attackers were driving together and did not split up, and also did not change (and, importantly, did not prepare in advance) another car for withdrawal. If we were talking about professionals whose task was to evacuate as quickly and discreetly as possible, these mistakes most likely would not have been made.
What's the result?
So far everything looks like this. The terrorist group was “consumable.” There was no point in training them as a professional team. Most likely, none of those who ordered the terrorist attack even expected that the terrorists would be able to survive the action, much less go on the run.
PS There are still many blind spots and inconsistencies in history. It is possible that in the future information will appear that will reveal the details of the preparation, the number and, importantly, the identities of all persons involved in the operation.
- “Islamic State” (IS, ISIS) - the organization was recognized as terrorist by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation dated December 29, 2014
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