We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
Geopolitics: Middle East
Israeli forces are now launching raids east of Rafah, via Sky News
Israel military says not going to put a timeframe on the Rafah evacuation and will make "operation assessments"
Israeli military says evacuating Rafah as part of a "limited scope" operation
The Israeli army has ordered civilians in several parts of Rafah to leave the city as it begins an invasion of the southern city, via journalist Soylu
Israeli Defence Minister, speaking with US Defence Secretary Austin, that action in Rafah is required due to Hamas' refusal of hostage-release proposals
Senior Hamas Official says to Reuters that Israel's Rafah evacuation order is a "dangerous escalation that will have consequences"; Hamas may withdraw from truce talks due to Rafah operations.
Israel’s military said the Kerem Shalom Crossing with Gaza is now closed to aid trucks after it came under fire with mortar shelling which killed 3 Israeli soldiers and wounded 12 others from the Givanti and Nahal brigades, while Hamas claimed responsibility for the mortar attack on Kerem Shalom and said it targeted an Israeli army base, according to Reuters.
Israeli PM Netanyahu said they cannot accept Hamas’s demands for an end to the war and the withdrawal of forces from Gaza, while he noted that ending the Gaza war now would keep Hamas in power and Israel would not accept terms that amount to a capitulation with Israel to keep fighting until its war aims are achieved. It was separately reported that Israel’s Defence Minister said Hamas appears uninterested in a deal meaning strong military action in Gaza’s Rafah could happen very soon, according to Reuters.
Israeli army is said to have started to evacuate civilians from parts of Rafah, according to Haaretz cited by Walla's Guy Elster. Subsequently, Bloomberg reported that the Israeli military asks some Rafah civilians to move out of the city, according to Bloomberg.
Hamas’ leader said they are still keen on reaching a comprehensive agreement, while the group said the round of negotiations in Cairo has ended and the delegation will leave to consult with the group’s leadership, according to Reuters. It was separately reported that Hamas agrees that Israel can commit to ending the war in the second stage of the hostage deal not the first, according to Times of Israel via social media platform X.
CIA chief Burns is to travel to Doha for an emergency meeting with Qatar’s PM as Gaza talks are said to be ‘near to collapse’, while Qatar and the US are to exert maximum pressure on Israel and Hamas to continue negotiations, according to an official briefed on talks cited by Reuters. It was separately reported that Burns will stay in Qatar on Monday and likely travel to Israel this week to meet with Israeli PM Netanyahu, according to an Axios reporter.
US reportedly put a hold on an ammunition shipment to Israel last week, according to two Israeli officials cited by Axios.
Iraqi armed factions announced they targeted an Israeli air base in Eilat with drones, according to Al Arabiya.
Israeli Cabinet decided to close Qatari TV network Al Jazeera’s operations in Gaza, according to a statement cited by Reuters. It was later reported that Israel’s communications ministry said a police raid was conducted at an Al Jazeera premises in Jerusalem.
Geopolitics:
Russia said it took full control of Ocheretyne village in eastern Ukraine, according to the Defence Ministry, cited by Reuters.
Russian Defence Ministry says preparations are beginning for the commencement of a missile exercises in the southern district, incl. aviation & navy forces
Pedophile elites wanted to buy an Island, asked if it "comes with children".
Agent replied, the Island "does have a small school"
They don't know camera was rolling
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🇺🇸 #Oklahoma high school principal (Kirk Moore) seen charging at and disarming a school shooter.
The suspect, identified as 20-year-old Victor Hawkins, was a former student who said he wanted to shoot up the school “like the Columbine shooters did.” While taking down the shooter, Moore was shot in the leg. He is expected to recover.
When the Principal woke up that day, he never thought he would be tackling a gunman.
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Oilprice.com
Two months after the U.S. and Israel bombed Iran on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for most tanker traffic, forcing more than 10 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude output shut-ins across the Middle Eastern oil producers.
The two-month-long closure of the Strait of Hormuz is longer than analysts had expected at the start of the war. Most assumed back then that the Strait would open by April and producers could restart shut-in wells in May.
Even if the Strait of Hormuz opened to free tanker traffic today, oil supply from the Middle East will take months to start flowing again and reach consumers in Asia, who were the first to feel the supply shock.
The longer the chokepoint remains off limits to most tanker traffic, the worse the scars would be on global supply and economic growth.
The restart of thousands of oil wells across the Middle East would be a big challenge. Some countries would need weeks, but others – like Iraq – many months to bring ...
🍚 War on Iran & El Niño threaten world rice production
Global rice supply is expected to decline this year as farmers across Asia reduce planting areas due to fertilizer shortages and higher fuel costs linked to the US-Israeli war on Iran, while an emerging El Niño weather pattern is also likely to further limit production of the world’s most widely consumed staple.
The impact of the war in West Asia is being felt by farmers in major exporting countries such as Thailand and Vietnam, as well as in import-dependent nations like the Philippines and Indonesia, according to growers and traders. Disruptions to fuel and fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global shipping chokepoint linking the Gulf to international markets, have contributed to the strain.
Smallholder farmers in Southeast Asia are also facing added pressure as El Niño is expected to bring hotter and drier conditions in the second half of the year.
🔗 The Cradle
🛢 “Why aren’t oil prices higher?” “How can the oil market be so complacent?”
Oil prices almost always trade to extremes. Right before it does, it always gets “obvious” from a fundamental setup standpoint.
I remember a great conversation I had with Nelson Wu of Open Square Capital about the oil market being analogous to toilet paper. You don’t realize how badly you need it until you run out of it.
Oil prices trade on the margin. As long as there are onshore inventories to draw from, traders don’t panic. It’s when you run low on onshore inventories that panic starts to set in.
Goldman published an update on Thursday that basically captured the storage math phenomenon that we are seeing:
Global visible total oil inventories remain bloated relative to historical standards. If, for example, we had started the conflict with global oil inventories at the 2025 lows, WTI and Brent would already be above $200/bbl.
The ~1.4 billion bbl cushion at the start of 2026 is what gave the US ...
