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Analysis Iran

Israeli channel "Kalibr on Telegram" on Telegram:
A Russian channel associated with the Wagner force: the search efforts are a media campaign - President Raisi is already dead.

"What's puzzling is that the Iranian media first reported that Ibrahim Raisi was alive, that he made contact on a satellite phone, when it was raining and snowing in what appeared to be a disinformation campaign.

Again, I could be wrong, but according to information circulating among the Iranians in Syria, none of the people on the helicopter are alive. And apparently the authorities in Iran have known about this for a long time.

Moreover, there are 2 rescue operations: one was actually carried out and the other was a propagandistic rescue operation that was presented to the media, the purpose of which is to delay time and reduce the possible emotional dissatisfaction of the Iranian people that could have occurred if the death of Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi was announced almost immediately."

Sources of the Caliber channel from the Syrian opposition confirmed to us that President Raisi and the Foreign Minister were killed in the crash and the information is being delayed because of a media campaign. According to the sources we spoke with, the entire "axis of resistance" has already received notification of their death, with an emphasis on Nasrallah. The official announcement of their death is expected to come only tomorrow morning according to the sources we spoke with.

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OIL SHOCK

🇮🇱 ❌ 🇮🇷 🛢 📈 — Deutsche Bank: Oil Prices will go to $125/barrel if the Iran-Israel conflict spills over into the Straight of Hormuz

@CIG_Telegram

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Analysis

Developments in the Iran-Israel war. It is currently 1:11am in Tel Aviv and 1:42am in Tehran.

Main points:

Iran and Israel have started targeting each other’s energy infrastructure.

Iranian missiles continued to target and impact northern and central Israel.

Israel has started targeting Iranian oil infrastructure, including oil refineries and oil depots.

Israeli airstrikes continue to target various parts of Tehran and the surrounding areas.

Iranian air defence seems to finally be doing some damage to Israeli missiles and drones. In turn, Israel has deployed dozens of small quadcopters and loitering munitions to waste Iranian air defence and saturate for larger attacks with cruise missiles.

Drones launched from Iran and factions in Iraq continue to target northern and southern Israel.

Missiles & drones:

2 rockets were launched from the Khan Younis area of southern Gaza by an unknown Palestinian faction. Neither were intercepted, with the IDF claiming they hit an open area with no casualties.

2 rockets were ...

Oil Prices

OIL MARKETS REACT SHARPLY TO ESCALATING MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS

📈 WTI CRUDE IS NOW FORECAST TO HIT $94.10 BY YEAR-END, UP OVER $21 IN A WEEK, ACCORDING TO KALSHI MARKETS.

THE JUMP FOLLOWS IRAN’S CANCELLATION OF NUCLEAR TALKS WITH THE U.S., CITING ISRAELI AIRSTRIKES. WITH TENSIONS RISING, MARKETS ARE PRICING IN THE RISK OF REGIONAL ESCALATION AND POTENTIAL DISRUPTION TO OIL FLOWS THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, A KEY ROUTE FOR 20% OF GLOBAL OIL.

ANALYSTS WARN THAT A FULL CLOSURE OF THE STRAIT COULD PUSH PRICES ABOVE $120–$150 PER BARREL. ...

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