We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
❗️🇮🇷 Crash of a helicopter with Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi:
what is known as of 9:00 pm on May 19, 2024
▪️In the evening, the IRNA agency reported that rescuers were able to "establish contact" with two passengers of the helicopter that disappeared from radar. Later, this was confirmed by the country's Vice President Mohsen Mansouri, but he did not specify who exactly they managed to contact and whether Ibrahim Raisi was among them.
▪️Night fell in the area of the alleged crash site, which further complicated the search operation against the backdrop of difficult weather conditions and inaccessible mountainous terrain. However, closer to nightfall, unconfirmed reports began to arrive that the aircraft had been located.
▪️The Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, made a statement in which he expressed the hope that "the Almighty God will return our respected and honored President Raisi and his companions to the embrace of the Iranian people."
▪️The Russian Foreign Ministry reported its readiness to provide assistance in the search for the crashed helicopter, as well as to assist in the investigation of the incident. A similar statement was made in Turkey, and the European Union promised to use satellites to determine the crash site.
At the same time, there is still no official information on the status of President Ibrahim Raisi, as well as Iranian Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian and other passengers and crew members.
#Iran
@rybar
Support us Original msg
🪖 🇺🇸 👨💻 Selective Service System wants to wargame the draft
Fearing that its new plans for the U.S. military draft pool won’t work, the Selective Service System wants to create a computer simulation to test scenarios for its national mobilization.
Since 1940, men within a designated age range have been required to register with the Selective Service. But under a proposed rule, men aged 18 to 26 will be automatically registered starting Dec. 19, 2026. The Selective Service System will work off data contained in other federal databases.
The computer simulation will explore multiple areas. These include evaluating staffing and resource requirements, comparing mobilization and police scenarios and assessing the operational impact of surge conditions. In addition, the system will “identify throughput risks, delays, and bottlenecks” and support executive planning and reporting obligations.
...
🛢 This oil crisis is now considerably more dangerous than it was back in March while market sentiment remains complacent.
• Strait of Hormuz closed again, with less dark fleet shuttling than ten days ago;
• Iranian crude exports effectively blockaded;
• Bab el Mandeb has become a new front in the Iran-US conflict, removing additional Saudi barrels;
• Less diplomatic room for manoeuvre than before the MoU;
• Kazakh crude exports via CPC terminal halted following Ukraine’s vessel strike campaign in the Black Sea;
• 1.5mbpd of Russian product exports missing, with significant duration due to recurring Ukraine drone strikes;
• Global crude inventories 1.5bn barrels lower than on 28 Feb;
• US product inventories remain lowish while its refinery system is maxed out;
• Brent back to a US$6 front-month backwardation.
We are rapidly moving from a products crisis - which is here to stay - back into a crude and product crisis.
Expect fresh announcements of SPR releases.
🔗 Alexander Stahel
🌆 Market News Digest
[Jul 24, 2026, 07:00–16:00 EST]
🔥 Top Stories
• Middle East escalation risks spike — reports of strikes/explosions across Iran, Saudi, Kuwait, Yemen; tanker attacks and Hormuz-Bab el-Mandeb tensions lifted oil volatility and safe-haven flows.
• Trump weighs Iran options, pushes trade pressure — said he’s speaking with Iran, hasn’t decided on strikes, while also threatening major EU tariffs/301 probe and fresh Canada/Mexico tariffs.
• US growth data stays firm — flash PMIs beat estimates and June new-home sales topped forecasts, keeping recession fears in check.
• US stocks mixed at the close — Dow outperformed, Nasdaq lagged as AI/mega-cap weakness and geopolitics pressured tech.
⛽ Oil & Energy
• Crude swung lower despite conflict headlines — WTI settled at $89.31, Brent at $96.78 after missile/tanker reports, with renewed Red Sea/Hormuz risk.
• Tanker reroutes and strikes — TORM re-routed via Suez/southern Africa; reports also pointed to damage on a Saudi ...
