We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
❗️🇮🇷 Crash of a helicopter with Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi:
what is known as of 9:00 pm on May 19, 2024
▪️In the evening, the IRNA agency reported that rescuers were able to "establish contact" with two passengers of the helicopter that disappeared from radar. Later, this was confirmed by the country's Vice President Mohsen Mansouri, but he did not specify who exactly they managed to contact and whether Ibrahim Raisi was among them.
▪️Night fell in the area of the alleged crash site, which further complicated the search operation against the backdrop of difficult weather conditions and inaccessible mountainous terrain. However, closer to nightfall, unconfirmed reports began to arrive that the aircraft had been located.
▪️The Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, made a statement in which he expressed the hope that "the Almighty God will return our respected and honored President Raisi and his companions to the embrace of the Iranian people."
▪️The Russian Foreign Ministry reported its readiness to provide assistance in the search for the crashed helicopter, as well as to assist in the investigation of the incident. A similar statement was made in Turkey, and the European Union promised to use satellites to determine the crash site.
At the same time, there is still no official information on the status of President Ibrahim Raisi, as well as Iranian Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian and other passengers and crew members.
#Iran
@rybar
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🇺🇸 #Oklahoma high school principal (Kirk Moore) seen charging at and disarming a school shooter.
The suspect, identified as 20-year-old Victor Hawkins, was a former student who said he wanted to shoot up the school “like the Columbine shooters did.” While taking down the shooter, Moore was shot in the leg. He is expected to recover.
When the Principal woke up that day, he never thought he would be tackling a gunman.
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Oilprice.com
Two months after the U.S. and Israel bombed Iran on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for most tanker traffic, forcing more than 10 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude output shut-ins across the Middle Eastern oil producers.
The two-month-long closure of the Strait of Hormuz is longer than analysts had expected at the start of the war. Most assumed back then that the Strait would open by April and producers could restart shut-in wells in May.
Even if the Strait of Hormuz opened to free tanker traffic today, oil supply from the Middle East will take months to start flowing again and reach consumers in Asia, who were the first to feel the supply shock.
The longer the chokepoint remains off limits to most tanker traffic, the worse the scars would be on global supply and economic growth.
The restart of thousands of oil wells across the Middle East would be a big challenge. Some countries would need weeks, but others – like Iraq – many months to bring ...
🍚 War on Iran & El Niño threaten world rice production
Global rice supply is expected to decline this year as farmers across Asia reduce planting areas due to fertilizer shortages and higher fuel costs linked to the US-Israeli war on Iran, while an emerging El Niño weather pattern is also likely to further limit production of the world’s most widely consumed staple.
The impact of the war in West Asia is being felt by farmers in major exporting countries such as Thailand and Vietnam, as well as in import-dependent nations like the Philippines and Indonesia, according to growers and traders. Disruptions to fuel and fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global shipping chokepoint linking the Gulf to international markets, have contributed to the strain.
Smallholder farmers in Southeast Asia are also facing added pressure as El Niño is expected to bring hotter and drier conditions in the second half of the year.
🔗 The Cradle
🛢 “Why aren’t oil prices higher?” “How can the oil market be so complacent?”
Oil prices almost always trade to extremes. Right before it does, it always gets “obvious” from a fundamental setup standpoint.
I remember a great conversation I had with Nelson Wu of Open Square Capital about the oil market being analogous to toilet paper. You don’t realize how badly you need it until you run out of it.
Oil prices trade on the margin. As long as there are onshore inventories to draw from, traders don’t panic. It’s when you run low on onshore inventories that panic starts to set in.
Goldman published an update on Thursday that basically captured the storage math phenomenon that we are seeing:
Global visible total oil inventories remain bloated relative to historical standards. If, for example, we had started the conflict with global oil inventories at the 2025 lows, WTI and Brent would already be above $200/bbl.
The ~1.4 billion bbl cushion at the start of 2026 is what gave the US ...
