❗️🇮🇷 Crash of a helicopter with Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi:
what is known as of 9:00 pm on May 19, 2024
▪️In the evening, the IRNA agency reported that rescuers were able to "establish contact" with two passengers of the helicopter that disappeared from radar. Later, this was confirmed by the country's Vice President Mohsen Mansouri, but he did not specify who exactly they managed to contact and whether Ibrahim Raisi was among them.
▪️Night fell in the area of the alleged crash site, which further complicated the search operation against the backdrop of difficult weather conditions and inaccessible mountainous terrain. However, closer to nightfall, unconfirmed reports began to arrive that the aircraft had been located.
▪️The Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, made a statement in which he expressed the hope that "the Almighty God will return our respected and honored President Raisi and his companions to the embrace of the Iranian people."
▪️The Russian Foreign Ministry reported its readiness to provide assistance in the search for the crashed helicopter, as well as to assist in the investigation of the incident. A similar statement was made in Turkey, and the European Union promised to use satellites to determine the crash site.
At the same time, there is still no official information on the status of President Ibrahim Raisi, as well as Iranian Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian and other passengers and crew members.
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🇮🇱🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 Let's take a step back and consider the bigger picture.
Strategic goals on day one of the war:
• Israel: eliminate Iran and Hezbollah as threats to Israel
• Iran: survive, deter future aggression
Fast forward to today, six weeks in, and it's obvious the Israeli war effort has failed. Their ideal state for Iran is Balkanization, or a second Syria, unable to mount any cohesive efforts against Israel. But the Iranian state remains stable, the regime change attempts failed. The IDF again failed to do more than push a few miles into Lebanon. Whatever the Israelis were attempting to do to destroy Hezbollah with the cooperation of the Lebanese government also seems to have failed. And Hezbollah seems much stronger than anyone assumed before this conflict.
The Israeli ability to achieve these goals hinged on sucking the US into maximal commitment in war against Iran. A second GWOT would have been ideal, with the US bogged down in Iran for years or even decades. At the moment, ...