We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
Is it possible that NATO forces could become directly involved in the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine?
Until recently, such a question seemed very hypothetical given the high risks of escalation of the military confrontation between the US-led bloc and Russia into a large-scale armed conflict. But this scenario should be taken seriously now, writes Ivan Timofeev, programme director of the Valdai Club
“A significant escalation factor that would amplify the risk of a direct clash between Russia and NATO, could be the appearance of military contingents form bloc members on the territory of Ukraine. The prospect of such a scenario has already been mentioned by some Western politicians, although their view has not been supported by the US and isn’t an official NATO position.”
“Each of these scenarios involves a direct clash between Russian and NATO forces. Such a situation would inevitably raise the question of deeper bloc involvement and, in the longer term, the transfer of military conflict to other areas of contact with Russia, including the Baltic region. At this stage, it will be even more difficult to stop the escalation. The more losses both sides suffer, the more the maelstrom of hostilities will grow and the closer they will come to the threshold of using nuclear weapons. And there will be no winners.”
https://www.rt.com/russia/599286-russia-nato-ukraine-conflict/
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@insiderpaper
🇺🇸 ⚠️ Rainfall totals for portions of the Texas Hill Country have been extreme since Monday, with several areas getting double-digit rainfall totals and isolated areas seeing 20+ inches
📌 Just in the last 6-12 hours, dangerous flash flooding has continued, especially for the Guadalupe River through Kerrville... and there has been a 35-foot rise in 4 HOURS in Center Point, Texas
🚨 FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY was once again been issued for the Guadalupe River and through Kerrville, with Water rescues currently underway.
🇨🇳🛢 Excluding any US-Iran talks about Hormuz, China remains the most important factor for oil prices for the next 60 days or so. All eyes on Beijing.
Ex-China Asian oil imports have recovered to normal levels within the 2023-2025 range. What China does next is crucial.
Last week, I wrote this Opinion column about what China may do next. I see a recovery in oil imports in July and August, but purchases will remain 25% below pre-war levels. Based on my industry soundings, I don't see China stockpiling in the short-term.
Important to note that the (very preliminary) data for July 1-14 shows no recovery whatsoever in Chinese oil imports, with seaborne offloadings running at ~5.5m b/d (below June average), per Vortexa data. That's extraordinary for a country that pre-war was buying 10-12m b/d.
🔗 Javier Blas
