We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
Is it possible that NATO forces could become directly involved in the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine?
Until recently, such a question seemed very hypothetical given the high risks of escalation of the military confrontation between the US-led bloc and Russia into a large-scale armed conflict. But this scenario should be taken seriously now, writes Ivan Timofeev, programme director of the Valdai Club
“A significant escalation factor that would amplify the risk of a direct clash between Russia and NATO, could be the appearance of military contingents form bloc members on the territory of Ukraine. The prospect of such a scenario has already been mentioned by some Western politicians, although their view has not been supported by the US and isn’t an official NATO position.”
“Each of these scenarios involves a direct clash between Russian and NATO forces. Such a situation would inevitably raise the question of deeper bloc involvement and, in the longer term, the transfer of military conflict to other areas of contact with Russia, including the Baltic region. At this stage, it will be even more difficult to stop the escalation. The more losses both sides suffer, the more the maelstrom of hostilities will grow and the closer they will come to the threshold of using nuclear weapons. And there will be no winners.”
https://www.rt.com/russia/599286-russia-nato-ukraine-conflict/
GLOBAL SITUATIONAL BRIEFING
Data Current as of 19 June 2026, 00:00
SITUATION DASHBOARD
GEOPOLITICAL HOTSPOTS:
Iran Nuclear Accord — US lifts naval blockade; Iran's Supreme Leader claims Trump negotiated "out of desperation." EU refuses to lift sanctions until formal nuclear deal. Vice President Vance delays Switzerland trip for Tehran talks. Status: De-escalatory posture, but deal still incomplete.
Ukraine-Russia Kinetic War — Massive Ukrainian drone strikes ongoing on Russian infrastructure (Moscow oil refinery, 6+ Sichen drones confirmed). Zelenskyy executing strategic strike campaign. Artillery/missile activity elevated but not showing escalation trajectory.
Sub-Saharan Instability — Al-Qaeda-linked jihadists claim attack on Niger's Niamey airport (35 killed). Myanmar military airstrike on civilians (7 dead, Rakhine state). Regional terrorism uptick.
Lebanon-Israel Tensions — Artillery and airstrikes reported in southern Lebanon (al-Rahibat, Nabatieh). Ongoing but not widening.
ANALYSIS
Key ...
US commercial crude oil inventories are reaching critical levels:
Crude inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the largest commercial storage hub in the US and the pricing point for WTI Crude, dropped -1.6 million barrels last week, to 20 million barrels, the lowest since 2014.
This marks the 8th consecutive weekly decline, totaling -8.3 million barrels.
As a result, Cushing now holds less than 2 days worth of US crude production, approaching the minimum level at which the facility can continue pumping oil efficiently.
Once inventories fall below ~20 million barrels, extracting crude becomes technically difficult and more costly, while oil quality can deteriorate due to water and sediment.
Meanwhile, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is down to ~340 million barrels, the lowest since 1983, after 172 million barrels were released to contain war-driven fuel price increases.
US oil inventories down to levels rarely seen in modern energy markets.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
