We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
Is it possible that NATO forces could become directly involved in the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine?
Until recently, such a question seemed very hypothetical given the high risks of escalation of the military confrontation between the US-led bloc and Russia into a large-scale armed conflict. But this scenario should be taken seriously now, writes Ivan Timofeev, programme director of the Valdai Club
“A significant escalation factor that would amplify the risk of a direct clash between Russia and NATO, could be the appearance of military contingents form bloc members on the territory of Ukraine. The prospect of such a scenario has already been mentioned by some Western politicians, although their view has not been supported by the US and isn’t an official NATO position.”
“Each of these scenarios involves a direct clash between Russian and NATO forces. Such a situation would inevitably raise the question of deeper bloc involvement and, in the longer term, the transfer of military conflict to other areas of contact with Russia, including the Baltic region. At this stage, it will be even more difficult to stop the escalation. The more losses both sides suffer, the more the maelstrom of hostilities will grow and the closer they will come to the threshold of using nuclear weapons. And there will be no winners.”
https://www.rt.com/russia/599286-russia-nato-ukraine-conflict/
🇨🇳🛢 Excluding any US-Iran talks about Hormuz, China remains the most important factor for oil prices for the next 60 days or so. All eyes on Beijing.
Ex-China Asian oil imports have recovered to normal levels within the 2023-2025 range. What China does next is crucial.
Last week, I wrote this Opinion column about what China may do next. I see a recovery in oil imports in July and August, but purchases will remain 25% below pre-war levels. Based on my industry soundings, I don't see China stockpiling in the short-term.
Important to note that the (very preliminary) data for July 1-14 shows no recovery whatsoever in Chinese oil imports, with seaborne offloadings running at ~5.5m b/d (below June average), per Vortexa data. That's extraordinary for a country that pre-war was buying 10-12m b/d.
🔗 Javier Blas
📍 🇮🇷 📌 Iran map thread for Wednesday 15th July 2026 | EpicFuryMap
The map has been updated thanks to the hard work of geolocators who post their insights for people to see.
We've seperated strikes into between 28FEB-14JUN and after that, just for ease of seeing what's relatively recent and what isn't due to the stop-start nature of the conflict. You can turn the archive pieces back on by simply opening the left most bar and ticking the box
Overall, US strikes have hit numerous targets over the past week at a slightly higher tempo than before, but still far far less than previous. Nothing of particular note has been destroyed, just hangars for boats / drones and a few military bases - but once again, not at the levels as occurred during Epic Fury.
⬇️ Continued:
A quick thread below showcasing some of the more interesting geolocations over the past week
📎 Iran Conflict Maps
The 45 Goals From "The Naked Communist" As Detailed In The 1963 Congressional Record
In 1963, these 45 goals of communism were read into the Congressional Record. They remain a chilling roadmap of how cultural, educational, and institutional subversion was planned — and how many have come to pass.
