We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
Consumer Sentiment & the C.P.Lie
The latest Michigan survey saw 1Y-inflation expectations increase to 3.5% (versus 3.2% expected) and consumer sentiment plunge from 69.1 to 65.6 (versus 72 expected).
We don't need to tell you that this is a bad outright terrible result, but meanwhile the Fed as usual has its blinders on, desperate to explain it away because, after all, "why, at a time of falling inflation, low unemployment, and strong economic growth, do voters appear so unsatisfied with the state of the economy, and in how Biden is handling the economy? Why in particular do voters complain so much about inflation?" (That's a quote)
The first comes from the Richmond Fed, which finds that "consumers whose political party is in office tend to have higher sentiment than those affiliated with the party not in office," noting that "the partisan sentiment gap has widened over time."
The second, much more convincing result, is some research from the Chicago School of Business, which used the pre-1983 CPI that took home prices and mortgage interest payments into account.
"If it still did, inflation would have peaked at nearly 18 percent in late 2022, about double the current CPI measure."
In fact, as the study itself claims, "If we measured inflation as the BLS did in the 1970s, the recent bout of inflation would have been even higher than the worst of the 1970s! It really is as bad now as it was then."
If the CPI were to include interest paid on personal debt (such as auto loans and credit-card debt), that would also produce a much higher inflation rate than suggested by the current official measure (chart above). In fact, using this CPI, the year-over-year change in inflation has only just returned back down to its 2022 highs.
Maybe this would better explain for the economists like John Cochrane why "voters complain so much about inflation?"
The world’s fastest drone, the XLR V3, just went from 0 to 124 mph (200 km/h) in 1 second, faster than a Formula 1 car off the line.
Designed by Swiss engineers, the XLR V3 is a high performance FPV (First Person View) racing drone built with ultra light carbon fiber, high torque brushless motors, and cutting edge aerodynamics. It’s not just fast, it’s rewriting what’s possible in drone engineering.
This drone accelerates faster than:
✔️ An F1 car
✔️ A Tesla Plaid
✔️ Even a fighter jet on launch
Imagine what they're not showing us...
⚡️A Russian drone strike hit the car of Chief Rabbi Yosef Yitzchak Wolf in Kherson, head of the United Jewish Community of Ukraine’s local chapter.
Yosef is well known for assisting SBU and Nationalists in tracking down pro Russian Ukrainians who supported Russian forces during the liberation and uses his synagogue, as a shield, to help assemble FPVs for Ukrainian forces.
1. Geopolitical & Military Tensions
Thailand–Cambodia conflict: Martial law has been declared, over 138,000 people have fled, and both sides have exchanged fire. Terrain challenges and border disputes intensify risks of prolonged conflict.
Middle East flashpoints: The Gaza conflict escalates as Israel prepares for a major offensive and new ceasefire efforts stall. Suwayda, Syria, sees Druze self-administration declared.
Russia–Ukraine talks: Zelensky confirms negotiations, but a Putin-Zelensky meeting is still seen as unlikely by the Kremlin.
ISIS strike: U.S. CENTCOM killed a senior ISIS leader and his sons in Syria.
2. Western Politics, Immigration, and Populism
UK Islamophobia sentiment: A new survey shows over 50% of Britons view Islam as incompatible with British values, potentially fueling anti-immigration politics.
Jeremy Corbyn’s new party: Gathers 200,000 members; promotes anti-austerity, pro-immigrant policies in contrast to rising nationalist sentiment.
Anti-migration protests: Spread ...
🇨🇦 Stefan Molyneux on X: Almost every government policy in the West is designed to prevent family formation for the native population.
📝 Roger Marques: "Could not agree more.
Housing is expensive.
Families taxed to the bone.
Prices are so high that both elements of the couple must work.
Women are incentivized to not care about having children in their prime.
Public schooling literally retards children.
The culture is profoundly anti-children.
What else?"
