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Staged

🇧🇴 What was the attempted coup in Bolivia about?

After army units began leaving the main square in the capital La Paz just a few hours after the attempted coup began, everyone can't stop asking: "What actually happened?"

While former president Evo Morales called on trade unions to bring people to the streets in support of democracy and the official government, acting president Luis Arce swore in new military leadership under General José Wilson Sánchez, who immediately ordered the military to leave the main square in La Paz.

They did so, without much resistance. The first to leave was the rebel General Suñiga himself. A few hours later, he was arrested. Two other commanders were also taken into custody: former Navy Commander Juan Arnes Salvador and Air Force General Marcelo Javier Segarra. Suñiga is currently charged with terrorism and armed rebellion.

Interestingly, Suñiga calmly awaited arrest, and also had the opportunity to tell journalists that President Arce himself asked him to organize the uprising, concerned about "the decline of his own popularity."

However, the "attempt" turned out to be, to put it mildly, rather poor. General Suñiga's right-wing rhetoric, voicing opposition talking points and planning to free certain political prisoners, was not dared to be supported by either the right-conservative political circles in Bolivia itself, or even Arce and Morales' foreign critics (for example, the leadership of Argentina). The White House didn't even give any coherent reaction, only calling for calm and restraint.

Now the Bolivian leadership is stating that the situation in the armed forces is "fully under control," but the public expects new arrests and - not surprisingly - a serious "purge" of the army ranks.

Western media comment on the situation cautiously - but try to highlight General Suñiga's point of view about growing discontent in the country against the backdrop of an economic downturn due to the central bank's depleted resources. In addition, theses are published about the existence of a rift between Arce and Morales, who plans to run for president in the 2025 elections.

In this regard, the following points of view on the events currently prevail:

▪️ What happened was a staged event, the purpose of which is not a coup, but to create a split in the current Bolivian leadership. Now the opposition has a reason to endlessly pedal the issue of whether Arce ordered Suñiga to cordon off the Murillo square or not.

▪️ The military leadership, represented by Suñiga and his partners, was misled about the support for their actions from the true organizers of the mutiny, who either did not intend to bring the matter to an end, or stopped the events for other reasons.

▪️ Many see a connection between the incident and the recent visit of President Arce to Russia. There he discussed the lithium complex project being implemented in Bolivia by the company Uranium One, which is part of the Rosatom structure (the facility is planned to be put into operation in 2025). Arce also asked the Russian authorities to assist in ensuring the supply of liquid hydrocarbons, which Bolivia is in dire need of.

❗️In the latter case, such actions affect the interests of the United Original msg

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Threats

GLOBAL SITUATIONAL BRIEFING
Data Current as of 19 June 2026, 00:00

SITUATION DASHBOARD
GEOPOLITICAL HOTSPOTS:

Iran Nuclear Accord — US lifts naval blockade; Iran's Supreme Leader claims Trump negotiated "out of desperation." EU refuses to lift sanctions until formal nuclear deal. Vice President Vance delays Switzerland trip for Tehran talks. Status: De-escalatory posture, but deal still incomplete.

Ukraine-Russia Kinetic War — Massive Ukrainian drone strikes ongoing on Russian infrastructure (Moscow oil refinery, 6+ Sichen drones confirmed). Zelenskyy executing strategic strike campaign. Artillery/missile activity elevated but not showing escalation trajectory.

Sub-Saharan Instability — Al-Qaeda-linked jihadists claim attack on Niger's Niamey airport (35 killed). Myanmar military airstrike on civilians (7 dead, Rakhine state). Regional terrorism uptick.

Lebanon-Israel Tensions — Artillery and airstrikes reported in southern Lebanon (al-Rahibat, Nabatieh). Ongoing but not widening.

ANALYSIS
Key ...

US commercial crude oil inventories are reaching critical levels:

Crude inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the largest commercial storage hub in the US and the pricing point for WTI Crude, dropped -1.6 million barrels last week, to 20 million barrels, the lowest since 2014.

This marks the 8th consecutive weekly decline, totaling -8.3 million barrels.

As a result, Cushing now holds less than 2 days worth of US crude production, approaching the minimum level at which the facility can continue pumping oil efficiently.

Once inventories fall below ~20 million barrels, extracting crude becomes technically difficult and more costly, while oil quality can deteriorate due to water and sediment.

Meanwhile, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is down to ~340 million barrels, the lowest since 1983, after 172 million barrels were released to contain war-driven fuel price increases.

US oil inventories down to levels rarely seen in modern energy markets.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)

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Refiners

🛢 Regarding the attacks on refineries, they have been going on for two years now, and they have undoubtedly affected the Russian oil industry. However, the real damage is much lower than one might expect from how spectacular the images look.

This is not cope, but simply the fact that all the data published by Bloomberg and other similar sources show that Russia has been able to repair facilities and rebalance production from one refinery or region to another, from one market to another, and so on.

The damage that does seem serious to me is when facilities of the military-industrial complex are attacked, since depending on the plants involved, these can be much harder to compensate for, especially those related to radioelectronics.

At the same time, I think the recent attacks on logistics are considerably more worrying.

#info
#resources
#SAM #industry
#UAV #Cruise_Missile

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