🇧🇴 What was the attempted coup in Bolivia about?
After army units began leaving the main square in the capital La Paz just a few hours after the attempted coup began, everyone can't stop asking: "What actually happened?"
While former president Evo Morales called on trade unions to bring people to the streets in support of democracy and the official government, acting president Luis Arce swore in new military leadership under General José Wilson Sánchez, who immediately ordered the military to leave the main square in La Paz.
They did so, without much resistance. The first to leave was the rebel General Suñiga himself. A few hours later, he was arrested. Two other commanders were also taken into custody: former Navy Commander Juan Arnes Salvador and Air Force General Marcelo Javier Segarra. Suñiga is currently charged with terrorism and armed rebellion.
Interestingly, Suñiga calmly awaited arrest, and also had the opportunity to tell journalists that President Arce himself asked him to organize the uprising, concerned about "the decline of his own popularity."
However, the "attempt" turned out to be, to put it mildly, rather poor. General Suñiga's right-wing rhetoric, voicing opposition talking points and planning to free certain political prisoners, was not dared to be supported by either the right-conservative political circles in Bolivia itself, or even Arce and Morales' foreign critics (for example, the leadership of Argentina). The White House didn't even give any coherent reaction, only calling for calm and restraint.
Now the Bolivian leadership is stating that the situation in the armed forces is "fully under control," but the public expects new arrests and - not surprisingly - a serious "purge" of the army ranks.
Western media comment on the situation cautiously - but try to highlight General Suñiga's point of view about growing discontent in the country against the backdrop of an economic downturn due to the central bank's depleted resources. In addition, theses are published about the existence of a rift between Arce and Morales, who plans to run for president in the 2025 elections.
In this regard, the following points of view on the events currently prevail:
▪️ What happened was a staged event, the purpose of which is not a coup, but to create a split in the current Bolivian leadership. Now the opposition has a reason to endlessly pedal the issue of whether Arce ordered Suñiga to cordon off the Murillo square or not.
▪️ The military leadership, represented by Suñiga and his partners, was misled about the support for their actions from the true organizers of the mutiny, who either did not intend to bring the matter to an end, or stopped the events for other reasons.
▪️ Many see a connection between the incident and the recent visit of President Arce to Russia. There he discussed the lithium complex project being implemented in Bolivia by the company Uranium One, which is part of the Rosatom structure (the facility is planned to be put into operation in 2025). Arce also asked the Russian authorities to assist in ensuring the supply of liquid hydrocarbons, which Bolivia is in dire need of.
❗️In the latter case, such actions affect the interests of the United Original msg
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@insiderpaper
🇺🇸 ⚠️ Rainfall totals for portions of the Texas Hill Country have been extreme since Monday, with several areas getting double-digit rainfall totals and isolated areas seeing 20+ inches
📌 Just in the last 6-12 hours, dangerous flash flooding has continued, especially for the Guadalupe River through Kerrville... and there has been a 35-foot rise in 4 HOURS in Center Point, Texas
🚨 FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY was once again been issued for the Guadalupe River and through Kerrville, with Water rescues currently underway.
🇨🇳🛢 Excluding any US-Iran talks about Hormuz, China remains the most important factor for oil prices for the next 60 days or so. All eyes on Beijing.
Ex-China Asian oil imports have recovered to normal levels within the 2023-2025 range. What China does next is crucial.
Last week, I wrote this Opinion column about what China may do next. I see a recovery in oil imports in July and August, but purchases will remain 25% below pre-war levels. Based on my industry soundings, I don't see China stockpiling in the short-term.
Important to note that the (very preliminary) data for July 1-14 shows no recovery whatsoever in Chinese oil imports, with seaborne offloadings running at ~5.5m b/d (below June average), per Vortexa data. That's extraordinary for a country that pre-war was buying 10-12m b/d.
đź”— Javier Blas