We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
HOSTAGE DEAL UPDATE:
Early this morning, we saw reports in Israel that Sinwar was under increasing pressure due to the operation in Rafah and IDF control of the Philadelphi Corridor. Sinwar fears that every day that goes by without a deal, his chances of survival go down, and the chances that Israel will rescue more hostages go up (AKA he loses leverage in negotiations). Some unofficial sources claim that Sinwar has accepted that Hamas will not govern Gaza after the war. Still, he is ADAMANT that the IDF withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor because that is his oxygen supply. This will be the contention point going forward.
This afternoon, we received the report that the Mossad had received an answer from Hamas vis-à-vis the deal offered a few weeks ago. While we don’t have the full details of the answer yet, Israeli officials are claiming that this is the most positive response so far from Hamas, and they can work with it for once, albeit the negotiations will still take a long time and are not assured. Hamas supporters have already started celebrating, claiming that they were able to reach a deal to end the war.
From Israel’s perspective, while this is not necessarily the ideal situation, barring any untenable demands from Hamas, this deal will probably be the best way to get some hostages back alive. If there is no deal, the chance that hostages will be killed continues to escalate.
However, an important point to consider is that this deal was presented BEFORE the IDF took control of the Philadelphi Corridor, and that aspect of it would be a massive problem. I don’t see a situation where the IDF withdraws from the corridor, and I don’t see Hamas agreeing to a deal that keeps Israeli forces choking their supply lines. It remains to be seen how that issue will be negotiated.
It is essential to keep in mind that for many in Israel, Gaza is not nearly as important as the North anymore. All attention and focus are being shifted toward Lebanon, and the IDF needs as much of its available resources and manpower for what is to come with Hezbollah.
Overall, while I am not happy with the circumstances of this potential deal, I understand the various perspectives and considerations that go into it, and I trust Bibi to make the right decision for the country and our people. He holds all of the information, and we try to make sense of it; the rest is out of our hands.
(Raylan Givens on X)
📝 🇺🇸 🚢 From the Caribbean to the Black Sea to Hormuz: The Global Conflict No One is Seeing | Sal Mercogliano
The world’s oceans are witnessing a level of conflict not seen in decades. In this episode of What's Going on With Shipping?, we analyze the rapid escalation of maritime warfare across three key regions: the Caribbean, the Black Sea, and the Strait of Hormuz. From the U.S. Southern Command's strikes on narco-vessels to Ukraine's massive drone offensive against the Russian fleet, and the latest Iranian attacks on commercial tankers, we break down why these "out of sight" events have a habit of triggering global crises.
Key Highlights:
⚓Caribbean Operations: A look at Operation Southern Spear and the controversial 66 strikes against suspected narco-terrorist boats.
⚓Black Sea Offensive: Analyzing Ukraine’s strike on 21 Russian ships within 72 hours and the shift toward targeting bridge and accommodation areas.
⚓Hormuz Crisis: The breakdown of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire after...
🇮🇱😡📱 Israeli officials are “pissed” after Brad Parscale’s massive pro-Israel influencer campaign fails spectacularly.
After the U.S. and Iran agreed to a ceasefire deal on June 17, a senior U.S. official was monitoring the online reaction when they noticed something surprising.
President Donald Trump’s aides had expected his supporters to celebrate the agreement. Instead, online influencers in Trump’s MAGA movement were excoriating it on social media. One shared an Israeli op-ed titled, “You Could Have Been the Greatest President of All—But You Failed.” Several posted the same video of Qatar’s prime minister appearing to snub Vice President J.D. Vance in Israel, arguing it showed regional powers dismissing the Trump Administration’s “naivete.” Others accused Trump of surrendering before achieving his stated objective of eliminating Iran’s nuclear program. Many of the posts appeared almost simultaneously, with similarities in language and tone.
The official ...
