We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
HOSTAGE DEAL UPDATE:
Early this morning, we saw reports in Israel that Sinwar was under increasing pressure due to the operation in Rafah and IDF control of the Philadelphi Corridor. Sinwar fears that every day that goes by without a deal, his chances of survival go down, and the chances that Israel will rescue more hostages go up (AKA he loses leverage in negotiations). Some unofficial sources claim that Sinwar has accepted that Hamas will not govern Gaza after the war. Still, he is ADAMANT that the IDF withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor because that is his oxygen supply. This will be the contention point going forward.
This afternoon, we received the report that the Mossad had received an answer from Hamas vis-à-vis the deal offered a few weeks ago. While we don’t have the full details of the answer yet, Israeli officials are claiming that this is the most positive response so far from Hamas, and they can work with it for once, albeit the negotiations will still take a long time and are not assured. Hamas supporters have already started celebrating, claiming that they were able to reach a deal to end the war.
From Israel’s perspective, while this is not necessarily the ideal situation, barring any untenable demands from Hamas, this deal will probably be the best way to get some hostages back alive. If there is no deal, the chance that hostages will be killed continues to escalate.
However, an important point to consider is that this deal was presented BEFORE the IDF took control of the Philadelphi Corridor, and that aspect of it would be a massive problem. I don’t see a situation where the IDF withdraws from the corridor, and I don’t see Hamas agreeing to a deal that keeps Israeli forces choking their supply lines. It remains to be seen how that issue will be negotiated.
It is essential to keep in mind that for many in Israel, Gaza is not nearly as important as the North anymore. All attention and focus are being shifted toward Lebanon, and the IDF needs as much of its available resources and manpower for what is to come with Hezbollah.
Overall, while I am not happy with the circumstances of this potential deal, I understand the various perspectives and considerations that go into it, and I trust Bibi to make the right decision for the country and our people. He holds all of the information, and we try to make sense of it; the rest is out of our hands.
(Raylan Givens on X)
JUST IN - Investigators have identified shredded iceberg lettuce supplied by Taylor Farms to Taco Bell restaurants as a possible source of contamination in a parasitic illness outbreak that has sickened thousands across the United States, WaPo reports
@insiderpaper
🇺🇸 ⚠️ Rainfall totals for portions of the Texas Hill Country have been extreme since Monday, with several areas getting double-digit rainfall totals and isolated areas seeing 20+ inches
📌 Just in the last 6-12 hours, dangerous flash flooding has continued, especially for the Guadalupe River through Kerrville... and there has been a 35-foot rise in 4 HOURS in Center Point, Texas
🚨 FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY was once again been issued for the Guadalupe River and through Kerrville, with Water rescues currently underway.
🇨🇳🛢 Excluding any US-Iran talks about Hormuz, China remains the most important factor for oil prices for the next 60 days or so. All eyes on Beijing.
Ex-China Asian oil imports have recovered to normal levels within the 2023-2025 range. What China does next is crucial.
Last week, I wrote this Opinion column about what China may do next. I see a recovery in oil imports in July and August, but purchases will remain 25% below pre-war levels. Based on my industry soundings, I don't see China stockpiling in the short-term.
Important to note that the (very preliminary) data for July 1-14 shows no recovery whatsoever in Chinese oil imports, with seaborne offloadings running at ~5.5m b/d (below June average), per Vortexa data. That's extraordinary for a country that pre-war was buying 10-12m b/d.
🔗 Javier Blas
