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Deal?

HOSTAGE DEAL UPDATE:

Early this morning, we saw reports in Israel that Sinwar was under increasing pressure due to the operation in Rafah and IDF control of the Philadelphi Corridor. Sinwar fears that every day that goes by without a deal, his chances of survival go down, and the chances that Israel will rescue more hostages go up (AKA he loses leverage in negotiations). Some unofficial sources claim that Sinwar has accepted that Hamas will not govern Gaza after the war. Still, he is ADAMANT that the IDF withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor because that is his oxygen supply. This will be the contention point going forward.

This afternoon, we received the report that the Mossad had received an answer from Hamas vis-à-vis the deal offered a few weeks ago. While we don’t have the full details of the answer yet, Israeli officials are claiming that this is the most positive response so far from Hamas, and they can work with it for once, albeit the negotiations will still take a long time and are not assured. Hamas supporters have already started celebrating, claiming that they were able to reach a deal to end the war.

From Israel’s perspective, while this is not necessarily the ideal situation, barring any untenable demands from Hamas, this deal will probably be the best way to get some hostages back alive. If there is no deal, the chance that hostages will be killed continues to escalate.

However, an important point to consider is that this deal was presented BEFORE the IDF took control of the Philadelphi Corridor, and that aspect of it would be a massive problem. I don’t see a situation where the IDF withdraws from the corridor, and I don’t see Hamas agreeing to a deal that keeps Israeli forces choking their supply lines. It remains to be seen how that issue will be negotiated.

It is essential to keep in mind that for many in Israel, Gaza is not nearly as important as the North anymore. All attention and focus are being shifted toward Lebanon, and the IDF needs as much of its available resources and manpower for what is to come with Hezbollah.

Overall, while I am not happy with the circumstances of this potential deal, I understand the various perspectives and considerations that go into it, and I trust Bibi to make the right decision for the country and our people. He holds all of the information, and we try to make sense of it; the rest is out of our hands.

(Raylan Givens on X)

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DAY 38

🇺🇸🇮🇷🇮🇱 - WAR IN IRAN | APRIL 6th, DAY 38 RECAP:

🇺🇸🇮🇷 - Iran is seeking a permanent end to the war and will not accept a temporary ceasefire, demanding guarantees that it will not be attacked again. The final agreement is expected to include Iranian commitments not to pursue nuclear weapons in exchange for sanctions relief and the release of frozen assets, a source tells Reuters.

🇮🇷 - "Iran will allow ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for paying security fees. The security fees obtained will be used as war reparations. Several Indian, Pakistani, Turkish, and French ships have obtained transit permits for Hormuz," a senior Iranian official tells Al Jazeera.

🇺🇸🇮🇷 - "A senior American official told me that Iran submitted a 10-point response today to the proposal to end the war. The senior American official described the Iranian response as 'maximalist' and said that it is not clear if it will allow progress toward a diplomatic solution." ...

Markets 4/6/26

🌆 Market News Digest
April 6, 2026 EST

🔥 Top Stories
• Trump warns Iran of imminent destruction of bridges & power plants by Tuesday midnight — escalating tensions with potential for severe infrastructure strikes.
• Oil prices rise as Trump deadline nears; US crude settles at $112.41/bbl — geopolitical uncertainty boosts energy markets.
• US stocks gain amid optimism over Iran ceasefire; S&P up 0.41% — markets react to diplomatic signals and oil price stability.
• IMF warns prolonged Middle East war will slow global growth & boost inflation — economic outlook darkens with conflict escalation.
• Trump claims Iran is at its weakest; threatens to decimate Iranian infrastructure — aggressive stance amid ongoing negotiations.

⛽ Oil & Energy
• US crude at $112.41/bbl, Brent at $109.77/bbl — energy markets volatile on Iran conflict fears.
• US considers charging tolls in Strait of Hormuz; free passage part of Iran deal — strategic move to control shipping lanes.
• ...

Day 37

🇺🇸🇮🇷🇮🇱 - WAR IN IRAN | APRIL 5th, DAY 37 RECAP:

🇺🇸🇮🇷 - The NYT reports that during the operation in Iran, two U.S. transport aircraft intended to carry the airmen were disabled and abandoned, then blown up. Two MC-130J Combat King II rescue aircraft and four MH-6 Little Bird helicopters were deliberately destroyed by U.S. forces during the search and rescue mission in Iran, according to ABC News, citing U.S. officials.

🇮🇷🇦🇪 - Several fires have broken out at Abu Dhabi’s Borouge petrochemicals factory, with damage currently being assessed following an Iranian missile and drone attack. This comes less than 24 hours after Israel struck Iran’s largest petrochemical facility.

🇮🇷🇮🇱 - An Iranian ballistic missile impacted the Neot Hovav industrial zone near Beersheba in the first wave, the third time this industrial zone has been hit during the war.

🇺🇸🇮🇷 - "Tuesday will be Power Plant Day and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. ...

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