We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
HOSTAGE DEAL UPDATE:
Early this morning, we saw reports in Israel that Sinwar was under increasing pressure due to the operation in Rafah and IDF control of the Philadelphi Corridor. Sinwar fears that every day that goes by without a deal, his chances of survival go down, and the chances that Israel will rescue more hostages go up (AKA he loses leverage in negotiations). Some unofficial sources claim that Sinwar has accepted that Hamas will not govern Gaza after the war. Still, he is ADAMANT that the IDF withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor because that is his oxygen supply. This will be the contention point going forward.
This afternoon, we received the report that the Mossad had received an answer from Hamas vis-à-vis the deal offered a few weeks ago. While we don’t have the full details of the answer yet, Israeli officials are claiming that this is the most positive response so far from Hamas, and they can work with it for once, albeit the negotiations will still take a long time and are not assured. Hamas supporters have already started celebrating, claiming that they were able to reach a deal to end the war.
From Israel’s perspective, while this is not necessarily the ideal situation, barring any untenable demands from Hamas, this deal will probably be the best way to get some hostages back alive. If there is no deal, the chance that hostages will be killed continues to escalate.
However, an important point to consider is that this deal was presented BEFORE the IDF took control of the Philadelphi Corridor, and that aspect of it would be a massive problem. I don’t see a situation where the IDF withdraws from the corridor, and I don’t see Hamas agreeing to a deal that keeps Israeli forces choking their supply lines. It remains to be seen how that issue will be negotiated.
It is essential to keep in mind that for many in Israel, Gaza is not nearly as important as the North anymore. All attention and focus are being shifted toward Lebanon, and the IDF needs as much of its available resources and manpower for what is to come with Hezbollah.
Overall, while I am not happy with the circumstances of this potential deal, I understand the various perspectives and considerations that go into it, and I trust Bibi to make the right decision for the country and our people. He holds all of the information, and we try to make sense of it; the rest is out of our hands.
(Raylan Givens on X)
GLOBAL SITUATIONAL BRIEFING
Data Current as of 19 June 2026, 00:00
SITUATION DASHBOARD
GEOPOLITICAL HOTSPOTS:
Iran Nuclear Accord — US lifts naval blockade; Iran's Supreme Leader claims Trump negotiated "out of desperation." EU refuses to lift sanctions until formal nuclear deal. Vice President Vance delays Switzerland trip for Tehran talks. Status: De-escalatory posture, but deal still incomplete.
Ukraine-Russia Kinetic War — Massive Ukrainian drone strikes ongoing on Russian infrastructure (Moscow oil refinery, 6+ Sichen drones confirmed). Zelenskyy executing strategic strike campaign. Artillery/missile activity elevated but not showing escalation trajectory.
Sub-Saharan Instability — Al-Qaeda-linked jihadists claim attack on Niger's Niamey airport (35 killed). Myanmar military airstrike on civilians (7 dead, Rakhine state). Regional terrorism uptick.
Lebanon-Israel Tensions — Artillery and airstrikes reported in southern Lebanon (al-Rahibat, Nabatieh). Ongoing but not widening.
ANALYSIS
Key ...
US commercial crude oil inventories are reaching critical levels:
Crude inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the largest commercial storage hub in the US and the pricing point for WTI Crude, dropped -1.6 million barrels last week, to 20 million barrels, the lowest since 2014.
This marks the 8th consecutive weekly decline, totaling -8.3 million barrels.
As a result, Cushing now holds less than 2 days worth of US crude production, approaching the minimum level at which the facility can continue pumping oil efficiently.
Once inventories fall below ~20 million barrels, extracting crude becomes technically difficult and more costly, while oil quality can deteriorate due to water and sediment.
Meanwhile, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is down to ~340 million barrels, the lowest since 1983, after 172 million barrels were released to contain war-driven fuel price increases.
US oil inventories down to levels rarely seen in modern energy markets.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
🛢 Regarding the attacks on refineries, they have been going on for two years now, and they have undoubtedly affected the Russian oil industry. However, the real damage is much lower than one might expect from how spectacular the images look.
This is not cope, but simply the fact that all the data published by Bloomberg and other similar sources show that Russia has been able to repair facilities and rebalance production from one refinery or region to another, from one market to another, and so on.
The damage that does seem serious to me is when facilities of the military-industrial complex are attacked, since depending on the plants involved, these can be much harder to compensate for, especially those related to radioelectronics.
At the same time, I think the recent attacks on logistics are considerably more worrying.
#info
#resources
#SAM #industry
#UAV #Cruise_Missile
