We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
HOSTAGE DEAL UPDATE:
Early this morning, we saw reports in Israel that Sinwar was under increasing pressure due to the operation in Rafah and IDF control of the Philadelphi Corridor. Sinwar fears that every day that goes by without a deal, his chances of survival go down, and the chances that Israel will rescue more hostages go up (AKA he loses leverage in negotiations). Some unofficial sources claim that Sinwar has accepted that Hamas will not govern Gaza after the war. Still, he is ADAMANT that the IDF withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor because that is his oxygen supply. This will be the contention point going forward.
This afternoon, we received the report that the Mossad had received an answer from Hamas vis-à-vis the deal offered a few weeks ago. While we don’t have the full details of the answer yet, Israeli officials are claiming that this is the most positive response so far from Hamas, and they can work with it for once, albeit the negotiations will still take a long time and are not assured. Hamas supporters have already started celebrating, claiming that they were able to reach a deal to end the war.
From Israel’s perspective, while this is not necessarily the ideal situation, barring any untenable demands from Hamas, this deal will probably be the best way to get some hostages back alive. If there is no deal, the chance that hostages will be killed continues to escalate.
However, an important point to consider is that this deal was presented BEFORE the IDF took control of the Philadelphi Corridor, and that aspect of it would be a massive problem. I don’t see a situation where the IDF withdraws from the corridor, and I don’t see Hamas agreeing to a deal that keeps Israeli forces choking their supply lines. It remains to be seen how that issue will be negotiated.
It is essential to keep in mind that for many in Israel, Gaza is not nearly as important as the North anymore. All attention and focus are being shifted toward Lebanon, and the IDF needs as much of its available resources and manpower for what is to come with Hezbollah.
Overall, while I am not happy with the circumstances of this potential deal, I understand the various perspectives and considerations that go into it, and I trust Bibi to make the right decision for the country and our people. He holds all of the information, and we try to make sense of it; the rest is out of our hands.
(Raylan Givens on X)
Between 2007 and 2012, scientists carried out extensive ice drilling in Greenland, aiming to uncover Earth's climate history from the last 125,000 years.
Their findings put today's climate alarmism into perspective.
"Back then, Greenland was around 8°C warmer than today. Sea levels were 4-8m higher."
"Yet the planet didn't collapse and Greenland didn't melt. There were no tipping points and no mass extinctions."
"The planet was far warmer and life flourished."
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An Iranian Telegram channel gives us a glimpse into life in Tehran, after more than 40 days of war:
Tehran has filled with Toyota Hilux pickup trucks armed with machine guns. The city’s appearance has become just like during the ISIS rule in Raqqa(Syria) and Mosul(Iraq). Special units are deployed in parks, schools, and mosques. Checkpoints have increased, but with fewer personnel.
At most major intersections, suppression forces have been stationed. Under the bridges of all highways, checkpoints have been set up with flags of the Islamic Republic, Zainabiyoun, Fatemiyoun, and Hashd al-Shaabi, deliberately causing traffic jams and harassing citizens.
Tehran has effectively become a military camp for foreign militias subordinate to the Revolutionary Guards. Congratulations to the dishonorable commanders of the army.
Private companies are operating at full capacity, but government offices, which were supposed to work with 50% of the staff, barely reach 30%. And even those who do come leave in ...
Iran's military says the US blockade on Gulf ports, now in effect, is an "illegal" act tantamount to "piracy" as Trump is also weighing limited strikes on Iran.
US military says it is enforcing the blockade in the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea, Reuters reports. Pentagon says any vessel is subject to interception and capture.
Pundits review breakdown of Pakistan talks, where the "gaps were enormous" - and yet Iran's FM says the sides were "inches away" from an "Islamabad MoU".
Israel-Hezbollah fighting persists on eve of planned Tuesday talks in Washington between Israeli and Lebanese officials.
Roughly 21 million barrels per day of oil and petroleum products normally transit the Strait of Hormuz . That volume accounts for one fifth of global petroleum liquids consumption and one quarter of all seaborne traded oil.
Yet the destinations of those flows expose the asymmetry that ultimately doomed the strategy.
In the first half of 2025 ~89% percent of crude oil and condensate flowed eastward to Asian markets.
China absorbed 37.7 percent of the total followed by India at 14.7 percent South Korea at 12 percent Japan at 10.9 percent and other Asian buyers at 13.9 percent.
Europe received just 3.8 percent and the United States only 2.5 percent. The IRGC was never holding the West hostage. It holds the East.
By throttling traffic during the conflict the regime exercised its only economic "card". Ship transits collapsed to under ten percent of normal levels even after the ceasefire. Insurance rates soared and oil prices spiked.
The move they thought would delivered short term tactical breathing room and ...
