We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
HOSTAGE DEAL UPDATE:
Early this morning, we saw reports in Israel that Sinwar was under increasing pressure due to the operation in Rafah and IDF control of the Philadelphi Corridor. Sinwar fears that every day that goes by without a deal, his chances of survival go down, and the chances that Israel will rescue more hostages go up (AKA he loses leverage in negotiations). Some unofficial sources claim that Sinwar has accepted that Hamas will not govern Gaza after the war. Still, he is ADAMANT that the IDF withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor because that is his oxygen supply. This will be the contention point going forward.
This afternoon, we received the report that the Mossad had received an answer from Hamas vis-à-vis the deal offered a few weeks ago. While we don’t have the full details of the answer yet, Israeli officials are claiming that this is the most positive response so far from Hamas, and they can work with it for once, albeit the negotiations will still take a long time and are not assured. Hamas supporters have already started celebrating, claiming that they were able to reach a deal to end the war.
From Israel’s perspective, while this is not necessarily the ideal situation, barring any untenable demands from Hamas, this deal will probably be the best way to get some hostages back alive. If there is no deal, the chance that hostages will be killed continues to escalate.
However, an important point to consider is that this deal was presented BEFORE the IDF took control of the Philadelphi Corridor, and that aspect of it would be a massive problem. I don’t see a situation where the IDF withdraws from the corridor, and I don’t see Hamas agreeing to a deal that keeps Israeli forces choking their supply lines. It remains to be seen how that issue will be negotiated.
It is essential to keep in mind that for many in Israel, Gaza is not nearly as important as the North anymore. All attention and focus are being shifted toward Lebanon, and the IDF needs as much of its available resources and manpower for what is to come with Hezbollah.
Overall, while I am not happy with the circumstances of this potential deal, I understand the various perspectives and considerations that go into it, and I trust Bibi to make the right decision for the country and our people. He holds all of the information, and we try to make sense of it; the rest is out of our hands.
(Raylan Givens on X)
Seven Murders.
Ten Suicides.
Five Traffic Accidents.
Eight Natural Deaths.
Marc Dutroux was the European Jeffrey Epstein sourcing children for paedo elites to rape and murder and they covered it up!
🇮🇷🇮🇷⚔️🇺🇸 What Cards Still Remain for Trump in Iran?
Everything seemed to be going very well for the second round of negotiations between Pakistanis, Americans, and Iranians, until a few days ago, when the IRGC, from what we can tell, expressed strong dissatisfaction with how the process was being handled.
They were especially unhappy that Trump’s narrative was being allowed to circulate freely and calm the markets, and they decided to intervene.
Trump did not see this turnaround coming. Iran not only refused to attend this round of negotiations but also made it explicitly clear that it had not requested any extension of the ceasefire.
Instead of sitting down at the table, Iran chose to flex its muscles: it paraded a missile launcher through the streets in a mini military display cheered by thousands of people.
All of this happened on the same day that NBC News reported an assessment from the Pentagon’s intelligence agency directly contradicting the public statements of ...
🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 The Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) has published new estimates for the number of standoff munitions the U.S. expended during the 40 day combat period of the 3rd Gulf War.
They believe that ~25% of the JASSM inventory and ~30% of the Tomahawk/TLAM inventory have been expended in those 40 days.
The interceptor stocks are even more depleted, with estimates varying from 31-60% for the SM-3 interceptor to 16-32% for the SM-6 interceptor to 52-81% for the THAAD interceptor being expended.
CSIS has calculated that it would take 4 years to replenish the inventories of the standoff munitions used and more than 5 years to replenish the interceptor inventories.
Renewed hostilities between Iran, Israel and the U.S. would see the interceptor inventories go extinct while the standoff munitions inventories would be degraded even further.
📝 Patarames: U.S. airpower can generate vast, destructive firepower
But up until now, it used primarily 'luxury' assets, ...
🇺🇸💬🇮🇷❌🇮🇷 — 🧐 ISW on 𝕏:
"MORE: Ghalibaf publicly defended negotiations on Iranian state television on April 18, arguing that diplomacy with the United States, alongside military power, is necessary to secure Iran’s objectives. Ghalibaf also reportedly criticized hardline officials, including Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) member Saeed Jalili and hardline parliamentarian Amirhossein Sabeti, for their opposition to negotiations during a meeting with advisers, but his criticisms were likely implicitly directed at Vahidi.
US officials separately told Axios on April 20 that the US negotiating delegation thought it was “negotiating with the right people“ in Islamabad on April 11 and 12 but that the IRGC effectively told the Iranian negotiating delegation upon their return to Tehran that they ”don’t speak for” the IRGC. Senior regime officials, including former IRGC Intelligence Organization Chief Hossein Taeb, reportedly called the Iranian ...
