We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
HOSTAGE DEAL UPDATE:
Early this morning, we saw reports in Israel that Sinwar was under increasing pressure due to the operation in Rafah and IDF control of the Philadelphi Corridor. Sinwar fears that every day that goes by without a deal, his chances of survival go down, and the chances that Israel will rescue more hostages go up (AKA he loses leverage in negotiations). Some unofficial sources claim that Sinwar has accepted that Hamas will not govern Gaza after the war. Still, he is ADAMANT that the IDF withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor because that is his oxygen supply. This will be the contention point going forward.
This afternoon, we received the report that the Mossad had received an answer from Hamas vis-à-vis the deal offered a few weeks ago. While we don’t have the full details of the answer yet, Israeli officials are claiming that this is the most positive response so far from Hamas, and they can work with it for once, albeit the negotiations will still take a long time and are not assured. Hamas supporters have already started celebrating, claiming that they were able to reach a deal to end the war.
From Israel’s perspective, while this is not necessarily the ideal situation, barring any untenable demands from Hamas, this deal will probably be the best way to get some hostages back alive. If there is no deal, the chance that hostages will be killed continues to escalate.
However, an important point to consider is that this deal was presented BEFORE the IDF took control of the Philadelphi Corridor, and that aspect of it would be a massive problem. I don’t see a situation where the IDF withdraws from the corridor, and I don’t see Hamas agreeing to a deal that keeps Israeli forces choking their supply lines. It remains to be seen how that issue will be negotiated.
It is essential to keep in mind that for many in Israel, Gaza is not nearly as important as the North anymore. All attention and focus are being shifted toward Lebanon, and the IDF needs as much of its available resources and manpower for what is to come with Hezbollah.
Overall, while I am not happy with the circumstances of this potential deal, I understand the various perspectives and considerations that go into it, and I trust Bibi to make the right decision for the country and our people. He holds all of the information, and we try to make sense of it; the rest is out of our hands.
(Raylan Givens on X)
🇺🇸 #Oklahoma high school principal (Kirk Moore) seen charging at and disarming a school shooter.
The suspect, identified as 20-year-old Victor Hawkins, was a former student who said he wanted to shoot up the school “like the Columbine shooters did.” While taking down the shooter, Moore was shot in the leg. He is expected to recover.
When the Principal woke up that day, he never thought he would be tackling a gunman.
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Trump said Iran could start “exploding from within” in a few days if its oil gets “clogged.”
It sounds exaggerated, but there’s truth to it.
Iran produces roughly 2 to 3.5 million barrels of oil every day, and that oil has to keep moving through ports, tankers, and export terminals like Kharg Island.
A large share of the government’s budget depends on that flow, so when exports are blocked and there’s NO EXIT ROUTE, the system doesn’t just pause, it starts backing up.
Storage tanks fill quickly, and while Iran does have capacity, somewhere in the range of 40 to 90 million barrels, that space can get used up surprisingly fast under full production.
Once those tanks hit their STORAGE LIMIT, there’s no room left to absorb anything, and that’s where the real pressure begins.
At that point, Iran is forced into a difficult position. They can either cut production and immediately lose massive daily revenue, easily over $100 million, or keep pumping oil into a system that has nowhere to send it.
That...
💸 Reimagining Bretton Woods
How International Agreement Could Resolve Economic Imbalances
Connectivity Project by Philip Pilkington
The past few years have been ones in which global conflict has flared up in a manner that is more concerning than at any time since the end of the Second World War. Economists cannot offer solutions to all complex geopolitical problems, but they know that trade imbalances tend to vastly increase tensions between nations and make compromise on these non-economic topics more difficult.
Due to the politics and economic structure of the time, the bancor was shelved in 1944. But due to the changes in the global economic system caused by aggressive globalization, there is a strong case to be made that its time has come. Implementing the bancor solution to world trade could provide a new constructive economic vision for a world economy that currently feels chaotic and unmoored. It could provide the keystone to global governance in the 21st century.
🧵 ...
