We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
HOSTAGE DEAL UPDATE:
Early this morning, we saw reports in Israel that Sinwar was under increasing pressure due to the operation in Rafah and IDF control of the Philadelphi Corridor. Sinwar fears that every day that goes by without a deal, his chances of survival go down, and the chances that Israel will rescue more hostages go up (AKA he loses leverage in negotiations). Some unofficial sources claim that Sinwar has accepted that Hamas will not govern Gaza after the war. Still, he is ADAMANT that the IDF withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor because that is his oxygen supply. This will be the contention point going forward.
This afternoon, we received the report that the Mossad had received an answer from Hamas vis-à-vis the deal offered a few weeks ago. While we don’t have the full details of the answer yet, Israeli officials are claiming that this is the most positive response so far from Hamas, and they can work with it for once, albeit the negotiations will still take a long time and are not assured. Hamas supporters have already started celebrating, claiming that they were able to reach a deal to end the war.
From Israel’s perspective, while this is not necessarily the ideal situation, barring any untenable demands from Hamas, this deal will probably be the best way to get some hostages back alive. If there is no deal, the chance that hostages will be killed continues to escalate.
However, an important point to consider is that this deal was presented BEFORE the IDF took control of the Philadelphi Corridor, and that aspect of it would be a massive problem. I don’t see a situation where the IDF withdraws from the corridor, and I don’t see Hamas agreeing to a deal that keeps Israeli forces choking their supply lines. It remains to be seen how that issue will be negotiated.
It is essential to keep in mind that for many in Israel, Gaza is not nearly as important as the North anymore. All attention and focus are being shifted toward Lebanon, and the IDF needs as much of its available resources and manpower for what is to come with Hezbollah.
Overall, while I am not happy with the circumstances of this potential deal, I understand the various perspectives and considerations that go into it, and I trust Bibi to make the right decision for the country and our people. He holds all of the information, and we try to make sense of it; the rest is out of our hands.
(Raylan Givens on X)
🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 US blockade squeezes Iran's economy but may not force a deal
A US naval blockade has cut Iran's oil exports to a trickle and pushed inflation near 90%, but may not force Tehran to concede, Capital Economics argued on October 27.
Tracking estimates put Iran's seaborne crude exports at around 50,000 barrels a day (b/d) in both August and September, against 1.5mn-2.0mn b/d before the war, wrote Jason Tuvey, deputy chief emerging markets economist at the London-based consultancy. No crude has been loaded at Kharg Island, Iran's main export terminal, since late August, and Iraq and Pakistan have closed some border crossings with Iran, curbing its overland oil sales.
Oil exports were earning Iran $2bn-3bn a month before the war, Tuvey estimates, so a fall of more than 95% in seaborne volumes strips Tehran of most of its hard-currency income after more than 100 days of blockade. The central bank has already cut the dollars it supplies for imports to $27bn in the first seven ...
Marxists have rebranded. When you hear “stakeholder capitalism”, you are really hearing “marxism”.
When you hear “mutual aid”, you are hearing “marxism”.
When you hear “public-private partnership”, you are hearing “marxism”.
When you hear “racism” you are hearing “marxism”.
When you hear “mass migration”, you are hearing “marxism” & “globalism”.
When you hear “Islamaphobia” you are hearing “marxism”, “jihad”& globalism”.
Do you get it now?
@NoAgendaLara
