We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
HOSTAGE DEAL UPDATE:
Early this morning, we saw reports in Israel that Sinwar was under increasing pressure due to the operation in Rafah and IDF control of the Philadelphi Corridor. Sinwar fears that every day that goes by without a deal, his chances of survival go down, and the chances that Israel will rescue more hostages go up (AKA he loses leverage in negotiations). Some unofficial sources claim that Sinwar has accepted that Hamas will not govern Gaza after the war. Still, he is ADAMANT that the IDF withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor because that is his oxygen supply. This will be the contention point going forward.
This afternoon, we received the report that the Mossad had received an answer from Hamas vis-à-vis the deal offered a few weeks ago. While we don’t have the full details of the answer yet, Israeli officials are claiming that this is the most positive response so far from Hamas, and they can work with it for once, albeit the negotiations will still take a long time and are not assured. Hamas supporters have already started celebrating, claiming that they were able to reach a deal to end the war.
From Israel’s perspective, while this is not necessarily the ideal situation, barring any untenable demands from Hamas, this deal will probably be the best way to get some hostages back alive. If there is no deal, the chance that hostages will be killed continues to escalate.
However, an important point to consider is that this deal was presented BEFORE the IDF took control of the Philadelphi Corridor, and that aspect of it would be a massive problem. I don’t see a situation where the IDF withdraws from the corridor, and I don’t see Hamas agreeing to a deal that keeps Israeli forces choking their supply lines. It remains to be seen how that issue will be negotiated.
It is essential to keep in mind that for many in Israel, Gaza is not nearly as important as the North anymore. All attention and focus are being shifted toward Lebanon, and the IDF needs as much of its available resources and manpower for what is to come with Hezbollah.
Overall, while I am not happy with the circumstances of this potential deal, I understand the various perspectives and considerations that go into it, and I trust Bibi to make the right decision for the country and our people. He holds all of the information, and we try to make sense of it; the rest is out of our hands.
(Raylan Givens on X)
Mercuria shipping head says fuel shortages could idle 10% of global fleet
This would trigger immediate and severe breakdowns in global supply chains, as container ships, tankers, and bulk carriers sit idle, halting the movement of food, fertilizer, fuel, and critical imports that modern economies depend on.
"The shipping sector is fast approaching a fuel crisis that could paralyze a tenth of the global fleet, Larry Johnson, global head of freight at commodities trading house Mercuria, said in an interview.
Since the Middle East war erupted, markets have been preoccupied with potential shortfalls in the diesel and jet fuel traditionally exported in large quantities from the Persian Gulf.
However, as refiners strain to capture soaring clean product cracks, residual fuels have suffered. Increasingly, feedstocks have been held back from the marine fuel market to kept for further processing, leaving the shipping sector at risk of crippling shortages, Johnson said.
"My view on marine fuel...
Inflation in Europe is rising rapidly:
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Input Prices spiked to 80 points in May, the highest since May 2022.
This also marks the largest monthly increase in costs for firms over the last 4 years.
Furthermore, PMI Output Prices surged to 62 points, the highest in 3.5 years.
The rate companies are increasing the prices they charge for goods they produce has surged +12 points, or +24%, since the start of 2026.
This surge has been primarily driven by rising energy and raw material costs.
Meanwhile, supply chain delays are up to the highest level since the pandemic supply squeeze of 2022, adding further pressure on prices.
As a result, factories are forced to pass higher costs on to customers, which will push inflation even higher over the next few months.
Price pressures across Europe are accelerating.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
US inflation is set to rise further:
ISM Services Prices rose +0.6 points in May, to 71.3, the highest since August 2022.
Since February, the index has risen +8.3 points, the biggest 3-month increase since 2021.
Diesel, gasoline, oil, and related commodities were the most frequently cited as "up in price" in the survey.
In May alone, no commodities were reported as "down in price."
Historically, rapidly rising services prices have led CPI inflation with a ~3-month lag.
The current reading suggests CPI could rise above 5.0% for the first time since early 2023, from the 3.8% seen in April.
Inflation pressures are mounting.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)
