We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
HOSTAGE DEAL UPDATE:
Early this morning, we saw reports in Israel that Sinwar was under increasing pressure due to the operation in Rafah and IDF control of the Philadelphi Corridor. Sinwar fears that every day that goes by without a deal, his chances of survival go down, and the chances that Israel will rescue more hostages go up (AKA he loses leverage in negotiations). Some unofficial sources claim that Sinwar has accepted that Hamas will not govern Gaza after the war. Still, he is ADAMANT that the IDF withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor because that is his oxygen supply. This will be the contention point going forward.
This afternoon, we received the report that the Mossad had received an answer from Hamas vis-à-vis the deal offered a few weeks ago. While we don’t have the full details of the answer yet, Israeli officials are claiming that this is the most positive response so far from Hamas, and they can work with it for once, albeit the negotiations will still take a long time and are not assured. Hamas supporters have already started celebrating, claiming that they were able to reach a deal to end the war.
From Israel’s perspective, while this is not necessarily the ideal situation, barring any untenable demands from Hamas, this deal will probably be the best way to get some hostages back alive. If there is no deal, the chance that hostages will be killed continues to escalate.
However, an important point to consider is that this deal was presented BEFORE the IDF took control of the Philadelphi Corridor, and that aspect of it would be a massive problem. I don’t see a situation where the IDF withdraws from the corridor, and I don’t see Hamas agreeing to a deal that keeps Israeli forces choking their supply lines. It remains to be seen how that issue will be negotiated.
It is essential to keep in mind that for many in Israel, Gaza is not nearly as important as the North anymore. All attention and focus are being shifted toward Lebanon, and the IDF needs as much of its available resources and manpower for what is to come with Hezbollah.
Overall, while I am not happy with the circumstances of this potential deal, I understand the various perspectives and considerations that go into it, and I trust Bibi to make the right decision for the country and our people. He holds all of the information, and we try to make sense of it; the rest is out of our hands.
(Raylan Givens on X)
📍 🇮🇷 📌 Iran map thread for Wednesday 15th July 2026 | EpicFuryMap
The map has been updated thanks to the hard work of geolocators who post their insights for people to see.
We've seperated strikes into between 28FEB-14JUN and after that, just for ease of seeing what's relatively recent and what isn't due to the stop-start nature of the conflict. You can turn the archive pieces back on by simply opening the left most bar and ticking the box
Overall, US strikes have hit numerous targets over the past week at a slightly higher tempo than before, but still far far less than previous. Nothing of particular note has been destroyed, just hangars for boats / drones and a few military bases - but once again, not at the levels as occurred during Epic Fury.
⬇️ Continued:
A quick thread below showcasing some of the more interesting geolocations over the past week
📎 Iran Conflict Maps
The 45 Goals From "The Naked Communist" As Detailed In The 1963 Congressional Record
In 1963, these 45 goals of communism were read into the Congressional Record. They remain a chilling roadmap of how cultural, educational, and institutional subversion was planned — and how many have come to pass.
