We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
HOSTAGE DEAL UPDATE:
Early this morning, we saw reports in Israel that Sinwar was under increasing pressure due to the operation in Rafah and IDF control of the Philadelphi Corridor. Sinwar fears that every day that goes by without a deal, his chances of survival go down, and the chances that Israel will rescue more hostages go up (AKA he loses leverage in negotiations). Some unofficial sources claim that Sinwar has accepted that Hamas will not govern Gaza after the war. Still, he is ADAMANT that the IDF withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor because that is his oxygen supply. This will be the contention point going forward.
This afternoon, we received the report that the Mossad had received an answer from Hamas vis-à-vis the deal offered a few weeks ago. While we don’t have the full details of the answer yet, Israeli officials are claiming that this is the most positive response so far from Hamas, and they can work with it for once, albeit the negotiations will still take a long time and are not assured. Hamas supporters have already started celebrating, claiming that they were able to reach a deal to end the war.
From Israel’s perspective, while this is not necessarily the ideal situation, barring any untenable demands from Hamas, this deal will probably be the best way to get some hostages back alive. If there is no deal, the chance that hostages will be killed continues to escalate.
However, an important point to consider is that this deal was presented BEFORE the IDF took control of the Philadelphi Corridor, and that aspect of it would be a massive problem. I don’t see a situation where the IDF withdraws from the corridor, and I don’t see Hamas agreeing to a deal that keeps Israeli forces choking their supply lines. It remains to be seen how that issue will be negotiated.
It is essential to keep in mind that for many in Israel, Gaza is not nearly as important as the North anymore. All attention and focus are being shifted toward Lebanon, and the IDF needs as much of its available resources and manpower for what is to come with Hezbollah.
Overall, while I am not happy with the circumstances of this potential deal, I understand the various perspectives and considerations that go into it, and I trust Bibi to make the right decision for the country and our people. He holds all of the information, and we try to make sense of it; the rest is out of our hands.
(Raylan Givens on X)
Ukrainian forces have begun training and testing exoskeletons for battlefield use. Soldiers from the 147th Separate Artillery Brigade are using them in the Pokrovsk sector for both logistics and frontline operations. The goal is to reduce physical strain, especially when loading heavy artillery shells into howitzers without automatic loaders. Artillery crews can handle up to 1200 kg of ammunition per day, and early tests show that exoskeletons help them work faster and with less fatigue Above all, by improving the conditions for those soldiers on the front lines who handle such heavy loads, plus the stress of work. Seeking to reduce overall fatigue in the troops
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🇮🇷🇮🇱 - 14 wounded in Iranian missile strike in central Israel, according to Israeli media.
🇬🇧🇮🇶 - A drone struck British Castrol oil warehouses in Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan, causing extensive damage.
🇮🇷🇮🇱 - Iran launched 9 missiles towards Israel this morning alone, with at least 3 of them being cluster missiles.
🇱🇧🇮🇱 - Over the past 12 hours, Hezbollah launched counterattacks in Khiam and Qantara, in the Nabatieh direction, southeast Lebanon. Hezbollah recaptured northern Khiam, with fighting ongoing for the south of the town. Hezbollah units also re-entered Qantara; frontline sources reported clashes in the center of the town last night.
🇱🇧🇮🇱 - 48 IDF soldiers have been wounded in clashes with Hezbollah over the last 24 hours in southern Lebanon, according to the Israeli Army.
🇱🇧🇮🇱 - "The Israeli army is barely catching its breath in southern Lebanon, and its resources are less than in the previous round of fighting," - Haaretz....
🇺🇸 Blue Owl Capital just disclosed that investors tried to pull 40.7% of one fund and 21.9% of another in a single quarter, and both funds gave the same answer, you can only have 5% back, and everyone else waits in line.
This is a bank run, not a normal withdrawal.
Wall Street spent the last decade selling millions of investors on something called semi-liquid private credit, higher yields, steady income and the promise you could get your money back every quarter if you needed it. What they buried in the fine print was what happens when too many people try to leave at the same time.
Analysts who have covered private credit for decades say nothing on this scale has ever been reported before at any major private credit manager.
These funds do not hold stocks you can sell on a Tuesday afternoon, they hold private loans to mid sized companies that cannot be liquidated quickly without destroying the price for every investor still trapped inside.
This product was originally designed for ...
🇺🇸 President Trump wants to switch to war economy in 2027 with massive increase in military spending and massive cuts to healthcare and other domestic agencies
Once a deficit hawk — he said in 2016 that he thought he could balance the budget in five years — Trump ended his first term with $7.8 trillion in added debt. His 2027 proposal is expected to give an update on 10-year deficit projections currently estimated at around $16 trillion.
The GOP's message for the Midterms will be focused on the "need" for a massive defense build up while the Democrats' message will be focused on affordability.
The fiscal 2027 budget will be the first time Trump puts his second-term governing agenda into one comprehensive document — with the numbers to back it up. The budget he released last year lacked detailed line-by-line spending targets and the economic assumptions necessary to project the long-term cost of his proposals.
Investors in US Treasuries will be looking to see if the debt and ...
