We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
HOSTAGE DEAL UPDATE:
Early this morning, we saw reports in Israel that Sinwar was under increasing pressure due to the operation in Rafah and IDF control of the Philadelphi Corridor. Sinwar fears that every day that goes by without a deal, his chances of survival go down, and the chances that Israel will rescue more hostages go up (AKA he loses leverage in negotiations). Some unofficial sources claim that Sinwar has accepted that Hamas will not govern Gaza after the war. Still, he is ADAMANT that the IDF withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor because that is his oxygen supply. This will be the contention point going forward.
This afternoon, we received the report that the Mossad had received an answer from Hamas vis-à-vis the deal offered a few weeks ago. While we don’t have the full details of the answer yet, Israeli officials are claiming that this is the most positive response so far from Hamas, and they can work with it for once, albeit the negotiations will still take a long time and are not assured. Hamas supporters have already started celebrating, claiming that they were able to reach a deal to end the war.
From Israel’s perspective, while this is not necessarily the ideal situation, barring any untenable demands from Hamas, this deal will probably be the best way to get some hostages back alive. If there is no deal, the chance that hostages will be killed continues to escalate.
However, an important point to consider is that this deal was presented BEFORE the IDF took control of the Philadelphi Corridor, and that aspect of it would be a massive problem. I don’t see a situation where the IDF withdraws from the corridor, and I don’t see Hamas agreeing to a deal that keeps Israeli forces choking their supply lines. It remains to be seen how that issue will be negotiated.
It is essential to keep in mind that for many in Israel, Gaza is not nearly as important as the North anymore. All attention and focus are being shifted toward Lebanon, and the IDF needs as much of its available resources and manpower for what is to come with Hezbollah.
Overall, while I am not happy with the circumstances of this potential deal, I understand the various perspectives and considerations that go into it, and I trust Bibi to make the right decision for the country and our people. He holds all of the information, and we try to make sense of it; the rest is out of our hands.
(Raylan Givens on X)
🇬🇧 Video has surfaced of Henry Nowak’s killer, Vickrum Digwa, threatening people during a road rage incident with the same knife he later used to take Henry’s life.
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— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 The upcoming Iran-U.S. deal, what details will I be looking for?
1. Lebanon & Iran’s Frozen Assets
The primary issue between both sides in the past few weeks has consisted of two things:
1. A ceasefire in Lebanon
2. A partial release of Iran’s frozen assets up front.
If these two terms are included in the agreement, the U.S. would have compromised on them—if not, then Iran has compromised on them.
It also depends on the specifics of these terms. For example, will it be a true ceasefire in Lebanon—or will Israel be allowed to carry out limited strikes like in 2024-2025? Will Iran’s money be released immediately and unconditionally, or will it be released upon Iran’s agreement to certain other things? Will Iran be allowed to use the money in any way it wishes, or will it be limited to ‘humanitarian purposes’? These things all matter.
2. Management of the Strait of Hormuz
According to Iran’s SNSC, and per instruction of Iran’s Supreme Leader, the Strait of Hormuz must come ...
🇺🇸🤝🇮🇷❗️ — URGENT: The signing of a deal between the United States and Iran appears to be imminent, following statements by Iranian, U.S. and Pakistani leaders.
🇮🇷💬 Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi (later reposted by Trump on Truth Social):
"The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding has never been closer. Pending its finalization, the media should refrain from entering speculation about its content.
In line with our responsible and transparent approach, all details will be shared with the public in due course."
🇺🇸💬 U.S. Vice-president JD Vance after Mehr News leaked details of the alleged deal:
"I'm seeing a lot of fake information about a potential deal to reopen the Strait and end Iran's nuclear weapons program.
First, the Iranians are not receiving any cash, and no funds are being released for simply signing a deal or attending a meeting.
The deal is structured to ensure that the US and its allies concerns are prioritized, and that if the ...
