We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
HOSTAGE DEAL UPDATE:
Early this morning, we saw reports in Israel that Sinwar was under increasing pressure due to the operation in Rafah and IDF control of the Philadelphi Corridor. Sinwar fears that every day that goes by without a deal, his chances of survival go down, and the chances that Israel will rescue more hostages go up (AKA he loses leverage in negotiations). Some unofficial sources claim that Sinwar has accepted that Hamas will not govern Gaza after the war. Still, he is ADAMANT that the IDF withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor because that is his oxygen supply. This will be the contention point going forward.
This afternoon, we received the report that the Mossad had received an answer from Hamas vis-à-vis the deal offered a few weeks ago. While we don’t have the full details of the answer yet, Israeli officials are claiming that this is the most positive response so far from Hamas, and they can work with it for once, albeit the negotiations will still take a long time and are not assured. Hamas supporters have already started celebrating, claiming that they were able to reach a deal to end the war.
From Israel’s perspective, while this is not necessarily the ideal situation, barring any untenable demands from Hamas, this deal will probably be the best way to get some hostages back alive. If there is no deal, the chance that hostages will be killed continues to escalate.
However, an important point to consider is that this deal was presented BEFORE the IDF took control of the Philadelphi Corridor, and that aspect of it would be a massive problem. I don’t see a situation where the IDF withdraws from the corridor, and I don’t see Hamas agreeing to a deal that keeps Israeli forces choking their supply lines. It remains to be seen how that issue will be negotiated.
It is essential to keep in mind that for many in Israel, Gaza is not nearly as important as the North anymore. All attention and focus are being shifted toward Lebanon, and the IDF needs as much of its available resources and manpower for what is to come with Hezbollah.
Overall, while I am not happy with the circumstances of this potential deal, I understand the various perspectives and considerations that go into it, and I trust Bibi to make the right decision for the country and our people. He holds all of the information, and we try to make sense of it; the rest is out of our hands.
(Raylan Givens on X)
🇦🇪🍔⚠️— BREAKING : Dubai will soon run out of food due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, according to the head of the logistics company Kühne + Nagel, Paul.
▶️There is 10 days of fresh food left there. Theoretically, provisions can be transported overland from Saudi Arabia, but the available capacity is not enough to replace the cargo of at least one container ship.
▶️Up to 20,000 containers can be transported on a single vessel, a volume that is almost impossible to compensate for with trucks.
Jet fuel spot prices have increased by 140% since the Feb. 27, 2026, closure of the Strait of Hormuz following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. This surge, driven by fears of a severe supply shortage for low-inventory refined products, has driven Asian prices to over $225 per barrel.
Key Impacts of the Jet Fuel Surge:
Massive Price Jump: The spot price for jet kerosene rose 140% from a Feb. 27 close of $93.45 a barrel.
European Impact: In Europe, jet fuel prices soared by more than 140%, reaching their highest levels since 2022.
Profit Margins: The profit margin for producing jet kerosene from Dubai crude jumped to over $100 a barrel.
Airline Response: Major airlines are hedging large percentages of their fuel needs into 2027 to manage the crisis.
Supply Chain Disruptions: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has blocked a route that typically handles about 20% of the world's crude oil.
Even if the conflict is resolved, the disruption to supply chains is expected to cause ...
