IE: US faith in the stability of the dollar will be tested
Rumours of the death of the dollar are exaggerated, but only for now, writes the author of the article for The New Indian Express. The problems with the American currency are increasing, and the cause of this is Washington itself. Ultimately, the US will overplay their hand and lose their political prestige.
At the moment, there is no doubt in the US about the stability of the dollar as a reserve currency. However, considering the country's economic, political, and social problems, this faith will be put to the test.
To paraphrase Mark Twain's famous joke, rumours of the death of the dollar are exaggerated, although its health problems are increasing.
The problems with the dollar are mainly caused by Americans themselves. The unrestrained fiscal and monetary policies of the US - with a budget deficit and government debt at 7% and over 100% of GDP respectively - have reduced the dollar's long-term purchasing power. Since 1972, it has fallen by 99% against gold and lost 90% of its purchasing power in the market for real goods and services.
American politicians have always sought to use the dollar as a weapon to achieve their own goals, thereby compensating for economic weaknesses, such as lack of competitiveness. The US has sought to exclude foreign entities from international payment systems, such as SWIFT.
Washington imposes secondary sanctions to punish individuals and organisations that are not even under US jurisdiction. If a Russian company is under sanctions, anyone doing business with it may be subject to legal action, even if they comply with their own country's laws. This is done through a questionable system of dollar transactions that only pass through the US banking system. International banks and others have already faced legal action for operations that are legal in their own country. The threats are sufficient to disrupt dealings with organisations under US sanctions.
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🇺🇸 #Oklahoma high school principal (Kirk Moore) seen charging at and disarming a school shooter.
The suspect, identified as 20-year-old Victor Hawkins, was a former student who said he wanted to shoot up the school “like the Columbine shooters did.” While taking down the shooter, Moore was shot in the leg. He is expected to recover.
When the Principal woke up that day, he never thought he would be tackling a gunman.
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Two months after the U.S. and Israel bombed Iran on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for most tanker traffic, forcing more than 10 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude output shut-ins across the Middle Eastern oil producers.
The two-month-long closure of the Strait of Hormuz is longer than analysts had expected at the start of the war. Most assumed back then that the Strait would open by April and producers could restart shut-in wells in May.
Even if the Strait of Hormuz opened to free tanker traffic today, oil supply from the Middle East will take months to start flowing again and reach consumers in Asia, who were the first to feel the supply shock.
The longer the chokepoint remains off limits to most tanker traffic, the worse the scars would be on global supply and economic growth.
The restart of thousands of oil wells across the Middle East would be a big challenge. Some countries would need weeks, but others – like Iraq – many months to bring ...
🍚 War on Iran & El Niño threaten world rice production
Global rice supply is expected to decline this year as farmers across Asia reduce planting areas due to fertilizer shortages and higher fuel costs linked to the US-Israeli war on Iran, while an emerging El Niño weather pattern is also likely to further limit production of the world’s most widely consumed staple.
The impact of the war in West Asia is being felt by farmers in major exporting countries such as Thailand and Vietnam, as well as in import-dependent nations like the Philippines and Indonesia, according to growers and traders. Disruptions to fuel and fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global shipping chokepoint linking the Gulf to international markets, have contributed to the strain.
Smallholder farmers in Southeast Asia are also facing added pressure as El Niño is expected to bring hotter and drier conditions in the second half of the year.
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🛢 “Why aren’t oil prices higher?” “How can the oil market be so complacent?”
Oil prices almost always trade to extremes. Right before it does, it always gets “obvious” from a fundamental setup standpoint.
I remember a great conversation I had with Nelson Wu of Open Square Capital about the oil market being analogous to toilet paper. You don’t realize how badly you need it until you run out of it.
Oil prices trade on the margin. As long as there are onshore inventories to draw from, traders don’t panic. It’s when you run low on onshore inventories that panic starts to set in.
Goldman published an update on Thursday that basically captured the storage math phenomenon that we are seeing:
Global visible total oil inventories remain bloated relative to historical standards. If, for example, we had started the conflict with global oil inventories at the 2025 lows, WTI and Brent would already be above $200/bbl.
The ~1.4 billion bbl cushion at the start of 2026 is what gave the US ...