We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
IE: US faith in the stability of the dollar will be tested
Rumours of the death of the dollar are exaggerated, but only for now, writes the author of the article for The New Indian Express. The problems with the American currency are increasing, and the cause of this is Washington itself. Ultimately, the US will overplay their hand and lose their political prestige.
At the moment, there is no doubt in the US about the stability of the dollar as a reserve currency. However, considering the country's economic, political, and social problems, this faith will be put to the test.
To paraphrase Mark Twain's famous joke, rumours of the death of the dollar are exaggerated, although its health problems are increasing.
The problems with the dollar are mainly caused by Americans themselves. The unrestrained fiscal and monetary policies of the US - with a budget deficit and government debt at 7% and over 100% of GDP respectively - have reduced the dollar's long-term purchasing power. Since 1972, it has fallen by 99% against gold and lost 90% of its purchasing power in the market for real goods and services.
American politicians have always sought to use the dollar as a weapon to achieve their own goals, thereby compensating for economic weaknesses, such as lack of competitiveness. The US has sought to exclude foreign entities from international payment systems, such as SWIFT.
Washington imposes secondary sanctions to punish individuals and organisations that are not even under US jurisdiction. If a Russian company is under sanctions, anyone doing business with it may be subject to legal action, even if they comply with their own country's laws. This is done through a questionable system of dollar transactions that only pass through the US banking system. International banks and others have already faced legal action for operations that are legal in their own country. The threats are sufficient to disrupt dealings with organisations under US sanctions.
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🇺🇸 ⚠️ Rainfall totals for portions of the Texas Hill Country have been extreme since Monday, with several areas getting double-digit rainfall totals and isolated areas seeing 20+ inches
📌 Just in the last 6-12 hours, dangerous flash flooding has continued, especially for the Guadalupe River through Kerrville... and there has been a 35-foot rise in 4 HOURS in Center Point, Texas
🚨 FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY was once again been issued for the Guadalupe River and through Kerrville, with Water rescues currently underway.
🇨🇳🛢 Excluding any US-Iran talks about Hormuz, China remains the most important factor for oil prices for the next 60 days or so. All eyes on Beijing.
Ex-China Asian oil imports have recovered to normal levels within the 2023-2025 range. What China does next is crucial.
Last week, I wrote this Opinion column about what China may do next. I see a recovery in oil imports in July and August, but purchases will remain 25% below pre-war levels. Based on my industry soundings, I don't see China stockpiling in the short-term.
Important to note that the (very preliminary) data for July 1-14 shows no recovery whatsoever in Chinese oil imports, with seaborne offloadings running at ~5.5m b/d (below June average), per Vortexa data. That's extraordinary for a country that pre-war was buying 10-12m b/d.
🔗 Javier Blas
