We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
💜 📰
– Biden and Netanyahu had a “tough” phone call. Biden promised to help repel an upcoming attack from Iran. But he warned that if the conflict escalates again, Netanyahu should not count on US help – Axios, citing US officials
– Austin ordered the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group to be replaced in the Middle East by the USS Abraham Lincoln group. Additional cruisers and destroyers are being sent to the European and Central Command regions – Pentagon
– Venezuela may give BRICS countries rights to develop oil and gas – Maduro
– Israel is on maximum combat alert in anticipation of a large-scale response from Iran. Major hospitals are stocked with fuel and power generation equipment, as well as satellite phones in case of communication outages – Maariv
– Argentina has recognized opposition candidate Gonzalez as president of Venezuela following the US – Foreign Minister
– The US and Elon Musk are leading the coup attempt in Venezuela – Maduro
– Venezuela's right-wing opposition led by Corina Machado is preparing a terrorist attack in Caracas – Maduro
– Western governments may hold Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro accountable if he fails to ensure a peaceful transition of power – US Congress statement
– Hezbollah's response to Israel will not be limited to military goals and means – Iran's Permanent Representative to the UN
– Moscow is the most important source of possible independence and self-determination for Europe. Brussels should restore ties with Russia – American economist Jeffrey Sachs
– The Biden administration promised to develop a plan that would help Kyiv "win", but the president has not provided anything to Congress so far, having missed all possible deadlines – Responsible Statecraft
– The Czech Republic cannot find sellers of shells for Ukraine. Some Balkan countries refuse to supply. Those who agree wish to remain anonymous. Procurement is not transparent – iDNES
– According to investigations, the terrorist operation to kill Haniyeh was carried out by firing a short-range projectile with a warhead of about 7 kg outside the territory of the residence – IRGC
– Iran will avenge Haniyeh's death "at the appropriate time, in the appropriate place and in the appropriate way" – IRGC
– More than 20 people arrested in Iran after the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh – NYT
– US calls on its citizens to leave Lebanon on "any available" flight – embassy
– Latvia to spend €2.7 billion on the army over the next 4 years – Delfi
– Trump agreed to debate Harris on Fox News on September 4 – NYT
– Harris refused Trump's offer to hold a debate on Fox News on September 4 – campaign statement
– Israeli delegation returns from Cairo, where they discussed with intermediaries, the return of hostages from Gaza – adviser to Netanyahu's office
– Al-Qaeda-linked group in Niger took two Russian citizens hostage – AFP
– Putin and Xi Jinping congratulated To Lam on his election as General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam
– It has been confirmed that the halt in oil transit from Russia through Ukraine was coordinated from Brussels – Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjarto
– Austria's ruling coalition has agreed to include in the republic's new security strategy the refusal of Russian gas by 2027 – Kurier
– British nuclear submarine engineers use Russian and Belarusian software – The Telegraph
– Israel maintains contact with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Jordan and Bahrain to protect against an upcoming Iranian attack – Channel 12
Boost | 💜 👑 RD
🇺🇸 #Oklahoma high school principal (Kirk Moore) seen charging at and disarming a school shooter.
The suspect, identified as 20-year-old Victor Hawkins, was a former student who said he wanted to shoot up the school “like the Columbine shooters did.” While taking down the shooter, Moore was shot in the leg. He is expected to recover.
When the Principal woke up that day, he never thought he would be tackling a gunman.
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🇨🇳🛢 How much strategic oil does the world actually have in reserve?
Global strategic crude oil inventories stood at ~2.5 BILLION barrels as of December 2025, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
China holds by far the largest stockpile at 1,397 million barrels, more than 3 times the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve of 413 million barrels, which itself sits at only 58% of its full storage capacity of 714 million barrels.
China added an average of 1.1 million barrels per day to its strategic inventories throughout 2025, with preliminary data suggesting it continued building stockpiles in early 2026 ahead of the Iran War.
Japan holds the 3rd-largest reserve at 263 million barrels, followed by OECD European countries at 179 million barrels.
Meanwhile, the US is releasing 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to suppress oil prices, part of a broader 400 million barrel coordinated release agreed by 32 IEA member nations in March.
🔗 ...
🛢 JP Morgan Warns Oil Market Out of Balance, Prices Must Rise
🔸The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows, has removed 13.7 million barrels per day from global supply in April alone. A JP Morgan research note warns the market has no good way to replace it.
🔸Normally, spare production capacity in Saudi Arabia and the UAE acts as the market’s shock absorber. But that buffer has effectively been removed, eliminating the system’s first line of defense.
🔸With spare capacity unavailable, markets turned to inventories
➤ Global stockpiles are now being drained at ~7.1 mbd in April, an extraordinary pace, according to the note.
🔸Meanwhile, demand is collapsing because supply simply isn’t reaching users — “forced demand destruction.”The hardest hit sectors include:
▪️ Petrochemical plants across Asia are shutting down or slashing output as LPG, ethane, and naphtha flows from the Gulf collapse
▪️ Airline jet fuel ...
🛢⛽️ Global oil inventories are heading toward RECORD LOWS:
Global visible oil inventories have fallen -255 million barrels since the start of the conflict on February 27, to 7,864 million barrels.
Total estimated oil draws, including non-OECD refined products storage, have accelerated to 10.9 million barrels per day in April, the largest monthly draws on record since 2017.
Cumulative estimated draws since the start of the war now stand at 474 million barrels, with Hormuz flows holding at ~10% of normal, or 2.0 million barrels per day.
Meanwhile, even in an optimistic scenario where Strait of Hormuz flows begin recovering by late April, it is unlikely to prevent global visible inventories from reaching all-time lows, according to Goldman Sachs.
As inventories keep falling, physical oil markets are likely to require sharply higher prices for immediate delivery, since buyers cannot wait months for cheaper futures delivery when stocks are running critically low.
Goldman also warns...
