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Analysis Iran

🇮🇱🇮🇷 Personally, I don't think Iran will respond in the way everyone expects.

Iran will not attack Israel with missiles, as this would definitely trigger an all-out war between Iran and the US, who are willing to go to war on Israel's behalf.

This war the US will definitely lose, territorially due to logistics and will have to leave the Middle East, but Iran and the entire region will suffer huge consequences.

Iran will lose all the oil platforms, power plants and other critical facilities it has been building for years.

Iran is still not fully prepared for such a war, as they still lack many air defense systems, the latest generation of fighter jets, intercontinental ballistic missiles that can reach the United States, they also need to officially announce that they possess several nuclear warheads, and to possess several submarines that they will carry all those weapons including nukes.

This will tie the hands of the United States, which, unlike Russia, will not hesitate to use tactical nuclear weapons.

The price of such a victory for Iran is unaffordable and will literally destroy the country.

If Iran decides to take such a step, it will again be very limited, followed only by material damage.

The cost of such a war to the US is also huge and therefore some balance of patience is maintained.

Iran's response to Israel's assassination of the Hamas leader in Teheran will be of a similar nature.

Probably one of the ministers in the government of Israel will lose his head in Tel Aviv. Iran, like Israel, will officially deny involvement, and the hot chestnut will again fall into Israel's hands.

It can happen only at an opportune moment, maybe even in 3 years.

However, even if Israel reaches an agreement with Hamas, Hezbollah will not stop and drones and missiles will continue to fly on both sides, albeit with reduced intensity.

@Megatron_ron

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🇺🇸 Teenagers are now facing charges after doing a ding-dong ditch prank with a twist. They showed up in masks, wearing tactical gear and a rifle, or what looks like a rifle.

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Markets 10/21/26

🌆 Market News Digest
[Oct 21, 2026, 06:00–16:30 EST]

🔥 Top Stories
• Gulf tensions spike as U.S. orders Saudi embassy departures — Houthi drone attacks on Aramco/Shaybah, Iranian rhetoric, and evacuation alerts lifted oil-sensitive geopolitical risk
• Meta beats on revenue, unveils nonvoting stock plan — Q3 sales topped estimates, but a $9.9B legal charge crushed operating income as capex/AI spending stays huge
• OpenAI deepens Google Cloud partnership — Frontier models and Codex go onto Google Cloud Marketplace, a notable distribution win for Google and OpenAI

⛽ Oil & Energy
• Saudi Aramco/Shaybah attacked, but operations intact — air defenses intercepted a drone; no operational impact, yet the event kept crude elevated
• EIA crude stocks fall 3.06M barrels; gasoline drops 2.95M — bigger-than-expected draw, while diesel/distillate built
• WTI settles at $97.15; Brent at $108.82 — oil eased late despite supply fears; Kuwait says exports are at prewar levels

📊 Markets & Macro...

Mayor Dearborn

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10/20/26 Markets

🌆 Market News Digest
[Oct 20, 2026 EST]

🔥 Top Stories
• US–Iran tensions swing markets — Hormuz tanker fire, Israel warns of renewed strikes, Rubio says talks are hard; oil stayed volatile even as Brent eased below $109
• Anthropic’s massive AI spend shock — WSJ says it may spend >$600B on compute, with huge cloud/Nvidia commitments and >$80B H1 loss
• Trump on Ukraine, Iran and trade — says Ukraine must make a deal, India trade is “pretty close,” and he’s weighing Iran action

⛽ Oil & Energy
• Hormuz tanker fire / mine incident — IRGC says a supertanker carrying >2M barrels caught fire after hitting a mine
• Europe gas >€90 — benchmark tops 2022 levels on supply fears; US diesel prices remain elevated
• NATO and EU security push — NATO adds Black Sea assets; EU doubles down on Arctic security and keeping fossil fuels in the ground

📊 Markets & Macro
• US housing weakens further — starts fell 5.2% and pending sales dropped 7.3% to a record low, pressuring ...

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