We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🇮🇱🇮🇷 Personally, I don't think Iran will respond in the way everyone expects.
Iran will not attack Israel with missiles, as this would definitely trigger an all-out war between Iran and the US, who are willing to go to war on Israel's behalf.
This war the US will definitely lose, territorially due to logistics and will have to leave the Middle East, but Iran and the entire region will suffer huge consequences.
Iran will lose all the oil platforms, power plants and other critical facilities it has been building for years.
Iran is still not fully prepared for such a war, as they still lack many air defense systems, the latest generation of fighter jets, intercontinental ballistic missiles that can reach the United States, they also need to officially announce that they possess several nuclear warheads, and to possess several submarines that they will carry all those weapons including nukes.
This will tie the hands of the United States, which, unlike Russia, will not hesitate to use tactical nuclear weapons.
The price of such a victory for Iran is unaffordable and will literally destroy the country.
If Iran decides to take such a step, it will again be very limited, followed only by material damage.
The cost of such a war to the US is also huge and therefore some balance of patience is maintained.
Iran's response to Israel's assassination of the Hamas leader in Teheran will be of a similar nature.
Probably one of the ministers in the government of Israel will lose his head in Tel Aviv. Iran, like Israel, will officially deny involvement, and the hot chestnut will again fall into Israel's hands.
It can happen only at an opportune moment, maybe even in 3 years.
However, even if Israel reaches an agreement with Hamas, Hezbollah will not stop and drones and missiles will continue to fly on both sides, albeit with reduced intensity.
@Megatron_ron
🇺🇸 #Oklahoma high school principal (Kirk Moore) seen charging at and disarming a school shooter.
The suspect, identified as 20-year-old Victor Hawkins, was a former student who said he wanted to shoot up the school “like the Columbine shooters did.” While taking down the shooter, Moore was shot in the leg. He is expected to recover.
When the Principal woke up that day, he never thought he would be tackling a gunman.
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🇨🇳🛢 How much strategic oil does the world actually have in reserve?
Global strategic crude oil inventories stood at ~2.5 BILLION barrels as of December 2025, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
China holds by far the largest stockpile at 1,397 million barrels, more than 3 times the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve of 413 million barrels, which itself sits at only 58% of its full storage capacity of 714 million barrels.
China added an average of 1.1 million barrels per day to its strategic inventories throughout 2025, with preliminary data suggesting it continued building stockpiles in early 2026 ahead of the Iran War.
Japan holds the 3rd-largest reserve at 263 million barrels, followed by OECD European countries at 179 million barrels.
Meanwhile, the US is releasing 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to suppress oil prices, part of a broader 400 million barrel coordinated release agreed by 32 IEA member nations in March.
🔗 ...
🛢 JP Morgan Warns Oil Market Out of Balance, Prices Must Rise
🔸The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows, has removed 13.7 million barrels per day from global supply in April alone. A JP Morgan research note warns the market has no good way to replace it.
🔸Normally, spare production capacity in Saudi Arabia and the UAE acts as the market’s shock absorber. But that buffer has effectively been removed, eliminating the system’s first line of defense.
🔸With spare capacity unavailable, markets turned to inventories
➤ Global stockpiles are now being drained at ~7.1 mbd in April, an extraordinary pace, according to the note.
🔸Meanwhile, demand is collapsing because supply simply isn’t reaching users — “forced demand destruction.”The hardest hit sectors include:
▪️ Petrochemical plants across Asia are shutting down or slashing output as LPG, ethane, and naphtha flows from the Gulf collapse
▪️ Airline jet fuel ...
🛢⛽️ Global oil inventories are heading toward RECORD LOWS:
Global visible oil inventories have fallen -255 million barrels since the start of the conflict on February 27, to 7,864 million barrels.
Total estimated oil draws, including non-OECD refined products storage, have accelerated to 10.9 million barrels per day in April, the largest monthly draws on record since 2017.
Cumulative estimated draws since the start of the war now stand at 474 million barrels, with Hormuz flows holding at ~10% of normal, or 2.0 million barrels per day.
Meanwhile, even in an optimistic scenario where Strait of Hormuz flows begin recovering by late April, it is unlikely to prevent global visible inventories from reaching all-time lows, according to Goldman Sachs.
As inventories keep falling, physical oil markets are likely to require sharply higher prices for immediate delivery, since buyers cannot wait months for cheaper futures delivery when stocks are running critically low.
Goldman also warns...
