We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
📊 There's a popular saying that if you're not a liberal at 20, you have no heart, but if you're not a conservative by 40, you have no brain.
It might be more accurate to imagine that people's formative years have large, persistent impacts on their beliefs. A study by Andy Gelman showed how.
In the Gelman model, high presidential approval during a (White) birth cohort's teen years leads them to favor that president's party for the rest of their lives. Whatever the reason, it's as if they're acting to bring back the 'good old days' of their cognizant childhood. To get an idea of how this looks, look at Eisenhower Republicans:
The Eisenhower Republicans were those who missed most of the FDR years and were socialized in ten straight years of Republicans, of which the Eisenhower years had positive spin. As a result, that cohort became very pro-Republican, but then the very pro-Democrat Kennedy and Johnson years moderated them back to being a bit less pro-Republican.
The 1960s Liberals were born a bit later than the Eisenhower Republicans and they got to experience the pro-Kennedy and Johnson years in their formative years, but the next 25 years of strongly pro-Republican sentiment brought them to near-neutrality.
One of the most well-known political generations is the Reagan Conservatives. This generation got to experience strong pro-Republican sentiment and they ushered in the real Reagan Revolution: a cohort with strong pro-Republican leanings and little moderation due to the balance of sentiment between Clinton and Bush II, and Obama's nearly neutral sentiment.
Other cohorts like the New Deal Democrats and Millennials have their own biases that follow from the same dynamics, and if you plot them all together, you get a clear picture of the sentiment of the White electorate:
Now do note, I said Whites. This model works slightly better for non-Southern than for Southern Whites, and compared to those two groups, it works less than half as well for non-White minorities.
In any case, this model based on formative year impacts can explain roughly 90% of the variance in vote choices in the electorate. If you want to get people's votes, get them early in life, and you might be able to hold them through waves of less popular candidates from your own party.
📝🇺🇸❌🇮🇷 - On the Brink: Showdown in the Middle East
Amid an escalating American buildup, it’s clear Witkoff’s list of demands is more of a request for surrender. Accepting the abolition of its nuclear program and limitations on its ballistic missile force would leave Iran powerless to defend itself in any future conflict, which is the entire point of asking for these “concessions”. This demarche is a poison pill meant to justify further action when Iran rightly refuses it or, should they be foolish enough to actually accept it, will make the job of Israel and the U.S. easier when they inevitably tear up any agreement to conduct strikes anyway. The goal here for Tel Aviv and Washington isn’t peace and anybody who thinks they actually care about protesters needs to get their head checked; they want a final showdown with Iran to remove it as an obstacle to themselves in the Middle East.
For those that don’t remember, in the lead up to the 12 Day War last year...
The Democrats got new talking points, but the question is why this sudden shift in direction that betrays a part of their lunatic base. Something really shifty is going on over there.
EDWARD DOWD
🇺🇸 White House: U.S. exits Hague tribunals and Venice Commission
The United States is withdrawing from two international criminal tribunals based in The Hague and from the Venice Commission, as part of a broader disengagement from 66 global organizations, according to a White House statement.
The U.S. will no longer participate in the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals, which prosecutes remaining cases from the former Yugoslavia and the Rwandan genocide. The move reflects a wider recalibration of American foreign policy under President Donald Trump, aimed at distancing the U.S. from bodies seen as undermining national sovereignty or offering limited return on investment.
This withdrawal underscores Washington’s shift away from multilateral judicial structures and toward a more unilateral, interest-driven approach in international affairs.
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