We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
📊 There's a popular saying that if you're not a liberal at 20, you have no heart, but if you're not a conservative by 40, you have no brain.
It might be more accurate to imagine that people's formative years have large, persistent impacts on their beliefs. A study by Andy Gelman showed how.
In the Gelman model, high presidential approval during a (White) birth cohort's teen years leads them to favor that president's party for the rest of their lives. Whatever the reason, it's as if they're acting to bring back the 'good old days' of their cognizant childhood. To get an idea of how this looks, look at Eisenhower Republicans:
The Eisenhower Republicans were those who missed most of the FDR years and were socialized in ten straight years of Republicans, of which the Eisenhower years had positive spin. As a result, that cohort became very pro-Republican, but then the very pro-Democrat Kennedy and Johnson years moderated them back to being a bit less pro-Republican.
The 1960s Liberals were born a bit later than the Eisenhower Republicans and they got to experience the pro-Kennedy and Johnson years in their formative years, but the next 25 years of strongly pro-Republican sentiment brought them to near-neutrality.
One of the most well-known political generations is the Reagan Conservatives. This generation got to experience strong pro-Republican sentiment and they ushered in the real Reagan Revolution: a cohort with strong pro-Republican leanings and little moderation due to the balance of sentiment between Clinton and Bush II, and Obama's nearly neutral sentiment.
Other cohorts like the New Deal Democrats and Millennials have their own biases that follow from the same dynamics, and if you plot them all together, you get a clear picture of the sentiment of the White electorate:
Now do note, I said Whites. This model works slightly better for non-Southern than for Southern Whites, and compared to those two groups, it works less than half as well for non-White minorities.
In any case, this model based on formative year impacts can explain roughly 90% of the variance in vote choices in the electorate. If you want to get people's votes, get them early in life, and you might be able to hold them through waves of less popular candidates from your own party.
This guy wrote a 25 line Python script he claims "can probably unredact all of the Epstein files in less than 30 seconds".
"I am not suicidal, I am a great swimmer, and I look forward to living my life well into my 80s."
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If you’re a parent, this should make your stomach drop!
Every year, millions of families across America proudly display school photos of their children.
On refrigerators. In picture frames. Sent to grandparents and relatives across the country.
But here’s what most parents are never told…
Those school photos are taken by Lifetouch — the largest school photography company in America.
Lifetouch is owned by Shutterfly.
Shutterfly was acquired by Apollo Global Management.
And Apollo Global Management was co-founded by Leon Black — a name that appears in the Epstein files.
That means millions of children’s images are uploaded into databases every single year by a corporate structure tied to someone connected to Epstein.
Let that sink in!
https://vxtwitter.com/i/status/2019500982997041332
Reinsurance Group of America (RGA) exits its US healthcare business after a 40% price increase focused on profitability rather than market share.
I wonder what could be the cause?🤡
EDWARD DOWD
