We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
đź“Š There's a popular saying that if you're not a liberal at 20, you have no heart, but if you're not a conservative by 40, you have no brain.
It might be more accurate to imagine that people's formative years have large, persistent impacts on their beliefs. A study by Andy Gelman showed how.
In the Gelman model, high presidential approval during a (White) birth cohort's teen years leads them to favor that president's party for the rest of their lives. Whatever the reason, it's as if they're acting to bring back the 'good old days' of their cognizant childhood. To get an idea of how this looks, look at Eisenhower Republicans:
The Eisenhower Republicans were those who missed most of the FDR years and were socialized in ten straight years of Republicans, of which the Eisenhower years had positive spin. As a result, that cohort became very pro-Republican, but then the very pro-Democrat Kennedy and Johnson years moderated them back to being a bit less pro-Republican.
The 1960s Liberals were born a bit later than the Eisenhower Republicans and they got to experience the pro-Kennedy and Johnson years in their formative years, but the next 25 years of strongly pro-Republican sentiment brought them to near-neutrality.
One of the most well-known political generations is the Reagan Conservatives. This generation got to experience strong pro-Republican sentiment and they ushered in the real Reagan Revolution: a cohort with strong pro-Republican leanings and little moderation due to the balance of sentiment between Clinton and Bush II, and Obama's nearly neutral sentiment.
Other cohorts like the New Deal Democrats and Millennials have their own biases that follow from the same dynamics, and if you plot them all together, you get a clear picture of the sentiment of the White electorate:
Now do note, I said Whites. This model works slightly better for non-Southern than for Southern Whites, and compared to those two groups, it works less than half as well for non-White minorities.
In any case, this model based on formative year impacts can explain roughly 90% of the variance in vote choices in the electorate. If you want to get people's votes, get them early in life, and you might be able to hold them through waves of less popular candidates from your own party.
The world’s fastest drone, the XLR V3, just went from 0 to 124 mph (200 km/h) in 1 second, faster than a Formula 1 car off the line.
Designed by Swiss engineers, the XLR V3 is a high performance FPV (First Person View) racing drone built with ultra light carbon fiber, high torque brushless motors, and cutting edge aerodynamics. It’s not just fast, it’s rewriting what’s possible in drone engineering.
This drone accelerates faster than:
✔️ An F1 car
✔️ A Tesla Plaid
✔️ Even a fighter jet on launch
Imagine what they're not showing us...
⚡️A Russian drone strike hit the car of Chief Rabbi Yosef Yitzchak Wolf in Kherson, head of the United Jewish Community of Ukraine’s local chapter.
Yosef is well known for assisting SBU and Nationalists in tracking down pro Russian Ukrainians who supported Russian forces during the liberation and uses his synagogue, as a shield, to help assemble FPVs for Ukrainian forces.
1. Geopolitical & Military Tensions
Thailand–Cambodia conflict: Martial law has been declared, over 138,000 people have fled, and both sides have exchanged fire. Terrain challenges and border disputes intensify risks of prolonged conflict.
Middle East flashpoints: The Gaza conflict escalates as Israel prepares for a major offensive and new ceasefire efforts stall. Suwayda, Syria, sees Druze self-administration declared.
Russia–Ukraine talks: Zelensky confirms negotiations, but a Putin-Zelensky meeting is still seen as unlikely by the Kremlin.
ISIS strike: U.S. CENTCOM killed a senior ISIS leader and his sons in Syria.
2. Western Politics, Immigration, and Populism
UK Islamophobia sentiment: A new survey shows over 50% of Britons view Islam as incompatible with British values, potentially fueling anti-immigration politics.
Jeremy Corbyn’s new party: Gathers 200,000 members; promotes anti-austerity, pro-immigrant policies in contrast to rising nationalist sentiment.
Anti-migration protests: Spread ...
🇨🇦 Stefan Molyneux on X: Almost every government policy in the West is designed to prevent family formation for the native population.
đź“ť Roger Marques: "Could not agree more.
Housing is expensive.
Families taxed to the bone.
Prices are so high that both elements of the couple must work.
Women are incentivized to not care about having children in their prime.
Public schooling literally retards children.
The culture is profoundly anti-children.
What else?"
