We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
šŗšø America isnāt ready for another war ā because it doesnāt have the troops
Coverage of the wars in Ukraine and Gaza is mostly dominated by talk of weapons. Reporters and analysts focus on suicide drones, on shell deficits, on targeting algorithms. But for all the attention devoted to modern weapons and munitions, both conflicts are proving that modern war still comes down to people.
In Ukraine, battlefield deaths on both sides were estimated to number more than 200,000 by the fall of 2023. Though US weapons and munitions have been critical to Kyivās war effort, it was territorial militias and hastily trained citizen-soldiers who helped save Ukraine from total conquest in 2022.
At the same time, it was a partial mobilization of more than 300,000 troops that stabilized Russiaās lines and prevented a potential collapse in late 2022. Today, the war has settled into an attritional slugfest, with both sides desperate to keep the flow of new recruits going, to the point where ranks have opened to older men, women, and convicts.
The situation is much the same in the Middle East. On October 7, Israelās heavily automated Gaza perimeter was breached by well-trained but low-tech Hamas terrorists. The attack was eventually repulsed by conscript soldiers and armed volunteers ā even in the āstart-up nationā that prides itself on its technological prowess, security depends first and foremost on people. Similar to the Russian mobilization before the invasion of Ukraine, the immediate calling up of 360,000 reservists enabled Israel to conduct its campaign against Hamas and deter other non-state foes in the West Bank and Lebanon.
America did away with the draft 51 years ago, waging its many wars and interventions since with the All-Volunteer Force (AVF). But āall-volunteerā is a misnomer. Americans arenāt lining up to serve, and the AVF is really an all-recruited force. Its previous annual recruitment of about 150,000 mostly young Americans, who are individually located, pitched, and incentivized to serve, comes at considerable effort and expense.
The United States got through two foreign wars in Iraq and Afghanistan with the AVF ā though neither war was a victory. A war with Russia, China, Iran, or North Korea would be an entirely different proposition, with the possibility of more casualties in a few weeks than the United States suffered in the entire Global War on Terrorism. But as crises overseas multiply, the immediate existential threat to the AVF, and ultimately to US security, is at home: There arenāt enough Americans willing and able to fill the militaryās ranks.
š https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/368528/us-military-army-navy-recruit-numbers
Speaking at the WEF, Savor CEO Kathleen Alexander boasts about how her company is "saving the planet" from the evils of agriculture by replacing real butters and oils with synthetic versions made from carbon dioxide and methane. š³
"Savor is part of bringing transformation to the food system by re-imagining how we make an entire macronutrientāfats and oils."
"The result is that we can dramatically lower the planetary footprint of our food system."
"Our food system today uses about 50% of the habitable land on the planet. It's 20-30% of our greenhouse gas emissions."
"And we can reduce all of those by 50-100%."
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[July 3, 2026 EST]
š„ Top Stories
ā¢ Middle East risk flares ā IDF hits Hezbollah sites in south Lebanon; Houthis threaten Saudi assets; France deploys naval/mine-countermeasure assets near Hormuz.
ā¢ U.S. oil market scrutiny ā DOJ/FTC say theyāre monitoring crude for price-fixing/collusion as Brent settles at $72.12/bbl.
ā¢ Trump pardons saga ā Trump signs pardons for six and faces fresh scrutiny after NBC reported undisclosed stock purchases before tariff pause.
ā½ Oil & Energy
ā¢ Gulf crude exports topped 10M bpd in June but remain ~40% below pre-conflict levels; Fitch flags ongoing Iran/Mideast risk to corporates and oil forecasts.
ā¢ CMA CGM warns Hormuz transit charges would be ādevastatingā; Airbus says defense cooperation remains pressured.
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ā¢ Germanyās 2027 draft budget lifts borrowing to ā¬203.7B and spending to ā¬555.4B; euro equities firm with DAX +0.85%.
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š®š·ššŗšø Iran Is a Bigger Defeat Than Vietnam | Foreign Policy
At his second inaugural, U.S. President Donald Trump pronounced his hope āthat our recent presidential election will be remembered as the greatest and most consequential election in the history of our country.ā By losing his Gulf war, Trump has achieved that goal. His choice to launch a campaign against Iran was encouraged by others, but fully his own. It has led to a reversal that marks a strategic calamity far greater than the U.S. defeat in the Vietnam War.
Defeat in the Iranian war looks, on the surface, nothing like other U.S. military defeats. The speed of the war and its remoteness have lent an air of unreality to the whole endeavor. The White House has not been burned, as it was in 1814; there have not been protests against a nonexistent draft. The absence of substantial U.S. casualties in this conflict also masks the scale of the U.S. defeat. To be sure, the war has been deadly: Thousands of Iranians, ...
According to The Wall Street Journal, Donald Trump reviewed military options for a full-scale war against Iran to āfinish the job,ā but has decided, for now, not to move forward.
The report says Trump is concerned that renewed military conflict could hurt the chances of a diplomatic resolution and of dismantling Iranās nuclear program, and that heās shown willingness to let indirect talks in Qatar run past the August 18 deadline. He is said to be fine with continuing limited strikes on Iranian targets if Tehran violates the current temporary deal - as it already has, repeatedly.
How are those negotiations going?
Not well. It seems JD Vanceās āhistoricā face-to-face achievement was a one-off. Washington has been quietly downgraded from talking to the Great Satan to negotiating with the Little Satan instead - a senior Qatari official confirmed that U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Qatari officials in Doha, but there are currently no high-level U.S.-Iran meetings ...
