We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
#BREAKING Hezbollah statement on pager attack by Israel.
At approximately 3:30 pm on Tuesday 09-17-2024, a number of messaging devices known as "pagers" exploded, which are owned by a number of employees in various Hezbollah units and institutions.
These explosions, the causes of which are still unknown, led to the martyrdom of a girl and two brothers, and the injury of a large number of people with various injuries.
Hezbollah's specialized agencies are currently conducting a wide-ranging security and scientific investigation to determine the reasons that led to these simultaneous explosions, and medical and health services are also treating the wounded and injured in a number of hospitals in various Lebanese regions.
We ask God Almighty to have mercy on our righteous martyrs on the road to Jerusalem, and we pray for the wounded and injured to recover quickly, and we call on our honorable people to be aware of the rumors and false and misleading information that some parties are spreading in a way that serves the psychological war in favor of the Zionist enemy, especially since this is accompanied by the Zionist enemy's intimidating and threatening speeches and what it calls changing the situation in the north.
We confirm that the resistance at all levels and various units is at the highest level of readiness to defend Lebanon and its steadfast people.
🛢 We Are 'Still' Going Full Speed Into The Wall
Product storage is about to get tighter unless China steps in and lifts the product export ban. If it does, expect a meaningful reversal in crude.
WTI is barely hanging on to $70 for its dear life, but please remember that consumers use petroleum products like gasoline and diesel; they don’t use crude oil. Refineries do, and this is why it was always important for us to pay attention to crack spreads along with crude timespreads.
Note: Please divide it by 3.
The fever in the market today is that crude is oversupplied, but products are undersupplied. How can this be possible?
Well, China’s June crude import data so far is -4.7 million b/d y-o-y, and teapot refineries are operating at 50% utilization. Compared to US refineries operating at 95% and PADD 2 refineries operating over 100%, you can see where the disconnect is.
But here’s the thing. If end-user demand isn’t down and you still have a production shut-in of ~8 million...
🇮🇷🚫🚢 Here's my analysis of the Strait of Hormuz situation for the last 24 hours.
As I noted yesterday, I was seeing a lot of vessels using the Oman route to exit. This was following the announcement by Oman and IMO. The IRGC retaliated today on a vessel, but even after the attack, I am still seeing transits. It's a lot less, but there are vessels willing to take the risk.
On the inbound front, the flow is still heavily restricted. Whatever outflow we are seeing today is unsustainable as there are not enough non-Iranian tankers going in. In particular, we need empty VLCCs going in to load up crude. This is just a trickle so far.
In my view, the traffic in the Oman lane will lead to more escalation by IRGC. Without throttling flows entirely in the Southern lane, IRGC will lose control of its leverage over the Strait. If they act, then it's a question of what the US does after.
I think this is only the beginning.
🔗 @HFI_Research
