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September 19, 2024
WAR LEBANON V ISRAEL

Israeli military officials will be presenting the political echelon, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with various plans for the northern front during a meeting this evening, amid heightened tensions with Hezbollah.

IDF sources say the military seeks to achieve Israel's war goals in the north, returning the displaced Israelis back to their homes, but without causing the conflict to expand to a regional multi-front war.

The IDF has been on heightened alert following the recent events in Lebanon, and expects that the coming days may also be intense.

Israel has not taken responsibility for the Hezbollah communication devices that exploded in Lebanon in the past two days, killing 37 people, the vast majority of them terror operatives.

In the past 2-3 days, the IDF has been holding continuous assessments, and presenting plans to the political echelon. Earlier this evening, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi approved new battle plans.

So far, there have been no changes to guidelines for civilians, though the IDF has said it would update the public immediately if there are any developments.

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00:00:28
OIL SHOCK

🇮🇱 ❌ 🇮🇷 🛢 📈 — Deutsche Bank: Oil Prices will go to $125/barrel if the Iran-Israel conflict spills over into the Straight of Hormuz

@CIG_Telegram

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Analysis

Developments in the Iran-Israel war. It is currently 1:11am in Tel Aviv and 1:42am in Tehran.

Main points:

Iran and Israel have started targeting each other’s energy infrastructure.

Iranian missiles continued to target and impact northern and central Israel.

Israel has started targeting Iranian oil infrastructure, including oil refineries and oil depots.

Israeli airstrikes continue to target various parts of Tehran and the surrounding areas.

Iranian air defence seems to finally be doing some damage to Israeli missiles and drones. In turn, Israel has deployed dozens of small quadcopters and loitering munitions to waste Iranian air defence and saturate for larger attacks with cruise missiles.

Drones launched from Iran and factions in Iraq continue to target northern and southern Israel.

Missiles & drones:

2 rockets were launched from the Khan Younis area of southern Gaza by an unknown Palestinian faction. Neither were intercepted, with the IDF claiming they hit an open area with no casualties.

2 rockets were ...

Oil Prices

OIL MARKETS REACT SHARPLY TO ESCALATING MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS

📈 WTI CRUDE IS NOW FORECAST TO HIT $94.10 BY YEAR-END, UP OVER $21 IN A WEEK, ACCORDING TO KALSHI MARKETS.

THE JUMP FOLLOWS IRAN’S CANCELLATION OF NUCLEAR TALKS WITH THE U.S., CITING ISRAELI AIRSTRIKES. WITH TENSIONS RISING, MARKETS ARE PRICING IN THE RISK OF REGIONAL ESCALATION AND POTENTIAL DISRUPTION TO OIL FLOWS THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, A KEY ROUTE FOR 20% OF GLOBAL OIL.

ANALYSTS WARN THAT A FULL CLOSURE OF THE STRAIT COULD PUSH PRICES ABOVE $120–$150 PER BARREL. ...

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