Bluff or reality: Netenyahu’s plan for Lebanon invasion unfolds

The operation carried out by Israel on Hezbollah’s pagers and radios on Tuesday and Wednesday was, by any measure, impressive.

On Tuesday, Israel infiltrated Hezbollah's supply network, planting PETN explosives in communication devices. While the details of how the explosives were placed were still being debated, on Wednesday, radios began exploding during the funeral of the son of Hezbollah MP Ali Ammar, who had died in the previous day’s attack.

Although this operation was seen as an attempt by Israel to weaken Hezbollah before any ground invasion into Lebanon, 48 hours later, Israeli forces had not crossed the border. However, Israel gained a significant psychological advantage over Hezbollah.

Israeli officials, particularly Prime Minister Netanyahu, seemed unsatisfied with Hezbollah’s shock. Immediately after Tuesday’s pager attack, the Israeli cabinet granted Netanyahu and Defense Minister Galant the authority to initiate actions against Hezbollah, potentially leading to full-scale war in Lebanon. Galant remarked that the center of gravity of the conflict had shifted north.

High-ranking Israeli officers speaking to Clash Report noted that the U.S. had expressed displeasure with Israel’s recent actions.

One Israeli officer commented, “Are we stronger than in 2006? I don’t think so. Our firepower may be sufficient for a contained area like Gaza, but it’s not sustainable for Lebanon. The Americans have voiced their concerns to Tel Aviv about a war with Hezbollah.”

When asked if the Israeli army could succeed in Lebanon, the officer said the public debate was missing the real issue:

“Can we enter Lebanon? Absolutely. For an army, opening a front is never the problem—it’s getting out that’s the challenge. I don’t think the Prime Minister or his advisors are accurately conveying the real issue in Lebanon. In the list of options to deal with Hezbollah, a military operation is the last of the top five.”

Another officer stationed near the Lebanese border suggested that Netanyahu’s talk of entering Lebanon was a bluff, but warned that if pushed, he might proceed at any cost.

“It’s a bluff. Look at our losses in Gaza over the past ten months. Reserve forces arrived, but frankly, they were more of a burden. Entering Lebanon to fight Hezbollah on their territory will cause massive losses,” the officer said, adding that the army had presented a long-term, target-focused plan to Tel Aviv as an alternative to invasion.

When asked about Netanyahu’s likely response to the plan, the officer said, “I’m not sure how seriously they’ll consider it. He may have already given the order for an invasion—I don’t know.”

Towards the end of the interview, the officer commented on the mood within the Israeli army regarding a potential ground operation in Lebanon:

“It’s complete chaos. The reserve forces are eager, and Netanyahu’s supporters are the same. But within the professional army, there are serious doubts.”

Meanwhile, Hezbollah is struggling with communication issues and is not in a position to respond quickly.