We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🇺🇸🇨🇳🇮🇱 What will the surge of US forces to the Middle East cost the military?
The day the Middle East almost erupted into a full regional war this summer, Lloyd Austin was touring an Asian shipyard.
Just before the defense secretary visited Subic Bay, Philippines, the former site of a massive U.S. Navy base, Israel killed the political leader of Hamas, who was visiting Iran.
Austin’s July visit was meant to show his focus on Asia, the region America says is its top priority. Instead, he ended the trip distracted by the Middle East, spending hours containing the crisis on a flight back to Washington.
Since Oct. 7, when Hamas’ attack on Israel provoked all-out war in Gaza, the Pentagon has been on call. When the region has approached a wider war, the Defense Department surged forces there to calm it down. But after a year, some in Congress and the Pentagon are growing concerned about how to sustain that pace, and what it will cost the military in the long term.
Call it the U.S. Central Command squeeze. The Pentagon insists its surge has helped stop the Middle East from falling into chaos. But the longer the region borders on conflict, the more the U.S. tests its endurance for crises later on, most notably, a future conflict with China.
The pressure on the military increased even further this week. After their most intense attacks in almost 20 years, Israel and the Lebanese militia group Hezbollah are close to a larger war. On Monday, Austin yet again ordered more troops to the region, joining 40,000 other American personnel there, 6,000 more than normal. Another aircraft carrier may soon follow.
“We’re caught in this kind of never-ending quagmire of having to divert resources, and we’re burning [out] on the back end,” a senior congressional aide said.
Their message was that America’s military wouldn’t exhaust itself anytime soon, but that a year of unplanned deployments and spent missiles come with a cost. Even more, they said, the longer the crisis continues, the more the Pentagon will have to manage tradeoffs between the urgent needs of the Middle East and the rising challenges of the Indo-Pacific.
Pentagon leaders say they calculate the risk in pulling assets from one region to another, and that the choice to move forces away from Asia is a sign that they consider the region stable enough to do so.
“I have relayed messages that it is better to invest in deterrence where there is no overt conflict, rather than intervene in a conflict where there is one already,” the Philippines Secretary of National Defense Gilberto Teodoro said in an August interview. He wouldn’t specify who in the U.S. those messages have reached.
That said, the cost of this posture is also becoming clearer.
The first, and perhaps the most important, part of that tally is the military’s ability to meet future needs, known as “readiness” in defense jargon. By sending more forces to the Middle East, the Pentagon is accepting what amounts to a mortgage: higher costs on its forces to avoid an even bigger bill.
Without specifying the impact of these extensions so far, multiple defense officials and congressional aides said the U.S. is already having to manage “tradeoffs” between the needs of the Middle East today and other areas in the future.
This February, the Houthis shot a ballistic missile at the Navy destroyer Gravely in the Red Sea, one of many times the militia group targeted American ships in the waterway.
But this one came close. In fact, the ship used a short-range weapon — rather than the typical missile — to intercept the attack. The Houthis came within a nautical mile of success, according to Navy officials.
This is an example of the other two costs involved in the Pentagon’s response.
The Navy estimates that between Oct. 7 and mid-July, it fired $1.16 billion worth of munitions while on station in the Red Sea.
Gavin Newsom caught in a massive federal money laundering scam
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Newsom increased ambulance costs 300%, then requested reimbursements from the federal government, but it was fake
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He’d then pay a different company a fraction of the cost and pocket the rest. Stealing billions
“One of the largest and most convoluted schemes in modern history has been discovered during a review of California's medical financial records”
“Investigators found that under Gavin Newsom's leadership, the Golden State has essentially been funneling taxpayer money from all across America to prop up California's own finances.
Genesis Plan started in 2022 and it revolves around the complex concept of intergovernmental transfers, which in simple terms is when a local hospital or county makes a transfer to the state Medicaid agency for payments of medical services such as ambulance rides
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After the transfers are made, the state can then request a matching amount of money from the federal government
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But Gavin ...
Leaked phone call from January 4, 2025 (3 days before the devastating Palisades Fire)
The call is between Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass and John Alle, a property manager and whistleblower in the Pacific Palisades, Westlake and MacArthur Park areas
John Alle contacted Karen Bass to warn her about extreme fire risks due to weather conditions like high winds and dry brush
Karen Bass tells him to “read between the lines,” “hold tight,” and that “you will understand soon.”
She knew something was coming, almost like a planned fire (many believe the land grab)
This call is interpreted as her knowing serious fire danger was imminent but not wanting to discuss what was about to happen openly….
Very cryptic
đź”— Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes)
@CherokeeOwl 🦉
@BrettColdwell
🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 Pentagon Says Iran War Cost $25 Billion. An Economist Says Try Trillions.
The Defense Department’s $25 billion price tag for Operation Epic Fury covers only missiles fired, planes flown, and equipment lost — and little else, University of Michigan economist Justin Wolfers argues in a New York Times op-ed published Sunday.
The fuller accounting, he writes, runs into the hundreds of billions, and possibly trillions:
▪️ Geopolitical risk: Fed economists estimate heightened risk of this scale costs roughly $200 billion and leaves a million fewer Americans employed within a year
▪️ Interest rates: With rate cuts now off the table, the Fed’s likely response could cost another $200 billion in lost economic output
▪️ Stock market: Wolfers estimates the war has wiped roughly $3 trillion off S&P 500 valuations. Oil prices could be elevated through 2028.
▪️ Growth: Goldman Sachs projects U.S. GDP growth will be 0.5 percentage points lower — around ...
— 🇮🇱 It’s now 2026, a reality check for Israel after 3 years of war:
🇵🇸 Gaza front:
– Hamas has not been disarmed after almost three years of war.
– Tunnel infrastructure in Gaza is intact, rocket arrays being slowly rebuilt.
– Al-Qassam has approximately 25,000 fighters, the same amount as before Oct 7th.
– No sign of an interim government, Hamas is still politically in control of Gaza.
🇱🇧 Lebanon front:
– Hezbollah has not been disarmed, neither North nor South of the Litani.
– Hezbollah’s leadership has successfully reorganized and decentralized, and is now more resistant to assassination strikes than before.
– Hezbollah retains the capability to launch long-range and medium-range rockets, drones and missiles into Israel.
– The increasing use of FPV drones has rendered northern Israeli settlements into ghost towns, and significantly degraded the IDF’s freedom of movement in southern Lebanon.
🇮🇷 Iran front:
– The Islamic Republic is still ...
🛢 The Iran war is draining global oil inventories at a record pace:
Global oil stockpiles fell by ~4.8 million barrels per day between March 1 and April 25, the largest quarterly drawdown on record.
Crude makes up ~60% of this decline, with refined fuels accounting for the remaining.
Total visible oil inventories are now near the lowest level since 2018.
JPMorgan warns that total visible oil inventories could fall to operational stress levels of 7.6 billion barrels by June and further down to an operational floor of 6.8 billion barrels by September, assuming no resolution to the Strait of Hormuz closure.
This operational floor represents the bare minimum oil needed to keep global pipelines and refinery systems running, meaning the world would have zero remaining buffer against further supply shocks.
With inventories collapsing, the threat of sharper oil price surges and outright shortages is moving closer.
đź”— Global Markets Investor
