We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🇮🇱❌🇮🇷 Israel’s leaders believe they now have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to reshape the Middle East, one that goes well beyond pulverizing Hamas and Hezbollah.
Even before Israel launched what it described as a “limited” ground offensive into Lebanon Tuesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made clear that his ultimate target in the regional power shift is to undermine the authority of Tehran’s clerical leadership, defanging the Iranians who are the bankrollers, trainers and supposed protectors of both Hamas in Gaza and the Lebanese Shi’ite militia Hezbollah.
In an address in English on Monday, Netanyahu promised the “noble Persian people” that the day when they were free of rule by “tyrants” and could have peace with Israel would come “a lot sooner than people think.”
“There is nowhere in the Middle East Israel cannot reach,” he warned ominously.
For Iran, that will not sound like idle posturing. Israel is not just fighting Tehran by smashing its allies and proxies — such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen — but is showing its supremacy both in terms of technology and espionage on Iranian soil.
Ground offensive in Lebanon. On Tuesday Israel made it clear it won’t stop there.
Netanyahu’s once electorally fatal opinion poll numbers are rising since Nasrallah’s assassination, meaning there’s every political inducement for him to prolong the offensive and ignore repeated cease-fire calls from Western allies and aid groups, who fear a humanitarian crisis worsening in Lebanon.
“The elimination of Nasrallah is a very important step, but it is not the final one,” Gallant told troops serving with the army’s Golani Brigade. “We will employ all the capabilities at our disposal, and if someone on the other side did not understand what those capabilities entail, we mean all capabilities.”
U.S. officials believe the Israeli incursion will be limited, targeted and not as extensive as 2006, which triggered a short but fierce war that hurt both sides. But there remain fears in Washington of an Iranian attack against Israel, prompting some U.S. forces being moved “to defer and defend as necessary.” And there are worries of Israeli overreach.
It isn’t only domestic political logic driving Netanyahu — but military rationale, too. “The military incentives for Israel are to continue,” observed Matthew Savill of Britain’s Royal United Services Institute, a think tank, speaking before the incursion.
“It has destroyed Hezbollah’s senior leadership, compromised its ability to coordinate and has the initiative. In spite of the risks a ground incursion would face, the long-range threat from ballistic missiles, and the stretched nature of current IDF operations, it is possible to imagine that many would argue there will never be a better time to go into southern Lebanon to destroy Hezbollah’s military infrastructure there,” he added.
🇺🇸 #Oklahoma high school principal (Kirk Moore) seen charging at and disarming a school shooter.
The suspect, identified as 20-year-old Victor Hawkins, was a former student who said he wanted to shoot up the school “like the Columbine shooters did.” While taking down the shooter, Moore was shot in the leg. He is expected to recover.
When the Principal woke up that day, he never thought he would be tackling a gunman.
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🇨🇳🛢 How much strategic oil does the world actually have in reserve?
Global strategic crude oil inventories stood at ~2.5 BILLION barrels as of December 2025, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
China holds by far the largest stockpile at 1,397 million barrels, more than 3 times the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve of 413 million barrels, which itself sits at only 58% of its full storage capacity of 714 million barrels.
China added an average of 1.1 million barrels per day to its strategic inventories throughout 2025, with preliminary data suggesting it continued building stockpiles in early 2026 ahead of the Iran War.
Japan holds the 3rd-largest reserve at 263 million barrels, followed by OECD European countries at 179 million barrels.
Meanwhile, the US is releasing 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to suppress oil prices, part of a broader 400 million barrel coordinated release agreed by 32 IEA member nations in March.
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🛢 JP Morgan Warns Oil Market Out of Balance, Prices Must Rise
🔸The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows, has removed 13.7 million barrels per day from global supply in April alone. A JP Morgan research note warns the market has no good way to replace it.
🔸Normally, spare production capacity in Saudi Arabia and the UAE acts as the market’s shock absorber. But that buffer has effectively been removed, eliminating the system’s first line of defense.
🔸With spare capacity unavailable, markets turned to inventories
➤ Global stockpiles are now being drained at ~7.1 mbd in April, an extraordinary pace, according to the note.
🔸Meanwhile, demand is collapsing because supply simply isn’t reaching users — “forced demand destruction.”The hardest hit sectors include:
▪️ Petrochemical plants across Asia are shutting down or slashing output as LPG, ethane, and naphtha flows from the Gulf collapse
▪️ Airline jet fuel ...
🛢⛽️ Global oil inventories are heading toward RECORD LOWS:
Global visible oil inventories have fallen -255 million barrels since the start of the conflict on February 27, to 7,864 million barrels.
Total estimated oil draws, including non-OECD refined products storage, have accelerated to 10.9 million barrels per day in April, the largest monthly draws on record since 2017.
Cumulative estimated draws since the start of the war now stand at 474 million barrels, with Hormuz flows holding at ~10% of normal, or 2.0 million barrels per day.
Meanwhile, even in an optimistic scenario where Strait of Hormuz flows begin recovering by late April, it is unlikely to prevent global visible inventories from reaching all-time lows, according to Goldman Sachs.
As inventories keep falling, physical oil markets are likely to require sharply higher prices for immediate delivery, since buyers cannot wait months for cheaper futures delivery when stocks are running critically low.
Goldman also warns...
