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Summary

Summary:

Prime Minister Netanyahu says Iran made a big mistake tonight and will pay for it.

Common estimates show the attack on Israel involved at least 180 ballistic missiles. The Pentagon says about 200, or about twice the size of the prior April attack.

The waves of launches constituted the largest missile strike on Israel by Iran in history.

IRGC is claiming that 90% of missiles successfully hit their targets in Israel.

There were confirmed strikes on the ground, but no official casualties reported.

Israel's emergency authorities have lifted all restrictions, and people in Tel Aviv have emerged from bomb shelters and returned to the streets.

White House says Iranian attack on Israel apparently "defeated and ineffective".

Sullivan says there will be consequences for the attack, and US is consulting Israel on next steps or a potential response

Axios' Barak Ravid has told CNN that he expects major Israeli retaliation strikes on Iran to come within the next several hours.

Iranian state TV says hypersonic Fatah missiles were used in the attack.

Iran's President on X stated he does not seek war but will face any threat from Israel firmly.

Iran has said it gave no prior warning to US, but it did consult with Russia.

The IDF is vowing to 'strike powerfully' at targets in the Middle East.

IDF spox: "Iran carried out a serious act tonight and is pushing the Middle East to an escalation. We will act at the place and time of our choosing, in accordance with the guidance of the political echelon."

IDF spox: "Tonight’s event will have consequences."

Iran-backed Iraqi militias say if the US takes part in “any hostile action” then US bases will come under attack.

UN chief condemns ‘broadening Mideast conflict’ without mentioning Iran.

Blinken: Iran's missile attack on Israel 'unacceptable,' entire world should condemn.

US says it is ready to defend Israel, with Biden ordering US military assets to confront any further inbound projectiles.

At least two guided-missile destroyers in Eastern Mediterranean fired interceptors at inbound Iranian missiles.

Pentagon says about a dozen interceptor missiles were fired.

Pentagon refuses to say whether US will join in on future kinetic strikes against Iran.

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OIL SHOCK

🇮🇱 ❌ 🇮🇷 🛢 📈 — Deutsche Bank: Oil Prices will go to $125/barrel if the Iran-Israel conflict spills over into the Straight of Hormuz

@CIG_Telegram

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Analysis

Developments in the Iran-Israel war. It is currently 1:11am in Tel Aviv and 1:42am in Tehran.

Main points:

Iran and Israel have started targeting each other’s energy infrastructure.

Iranian missiles continued to target and impact northern and central Israel.

Israel has started targeting Iranian oil infrastructure, including oil refineries and oil depots.

Israeli airstrikes continue to target various parts of Tehran and the surrounding areas.

Iranian air defence seems to finally be doing some damage to Israeli missiles and drones. In turn, Israel has deployed dozens of small quadcopters and loitering munitions to waste Iranian air defence and saturate for larger attacks with cruise missiles.

Drones launched from Iran and factions in Iraq continue to target northern and southern Israel.

Missiles & drones:

2 rockets were launched from the Khan Younis area of southern Gaza by an unknown Palestinian faction. Neither were intercepted, with the IDF claiming they hit an open area with no casualties.

2 rockets were ...

Oil Prices

OIL MARKETS REACT SHARPLY TO ESCALATING MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS

📈 WTI CRUDE IS NOW FORECAST TO HIT $94.10 BY YEAR-END, UP OVER $21 IN A WEEK, ACCORDING TO KALSHI MARKETS.

THE JUMP FOLLOWS IRAN’S CANCELLATION OF NUCLEAR TALKS WITH THE U.S., CITING ISRAELI AIRSTRIKES. WITH TENSIONS RISING, MARKETS ARE PRICING IN THE RISK OF REGIONAL ESCALATION AND POTENTIAL DISRUPTION TO OIL FLOWS THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, A KEY ROUTE FOR 20% OF GLOBAL OIL.

ANALYSTS WARN THAT A FULL CLOSURE OF THE STRAIT COULD PUSH PRICES ABOVE $120–$150 PER BARREL. ...

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