We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🇺🇸 🇯🇵 🏦 From Nomura Charlie McElligott:
Markets have largely priced in a Trump victory and Wall Street seems to be eyeing a full Republican sweep next week.
In the event of a Harris victory and a gridlocked congress, traders are positioned "Risk Reversal" across asset classes sending bonds higher while sending interest rates, deregulation themes such as bank stocks ($XLF), gold, and bitcoin lower.
In the unlikely event of a full Democratic sweep of both the Senate, the House, and the Presidency, serious acute downside risks for the broader stock market is likely given negative growth implications of re-regulation and corporate tax hikes impact on earnings, especially after markets have already rallied considerably into the election on expectations of tax cuts.
🗒 In simple terms, if Harris wins but congress is R or split, bonds ($TLT) should rally while bank stocks ($XLF) gold, and bitcoin will likely see downside while the broader market ($SPY) will likely still rally into the end of the year
❗️ However, if Democrats sweep all of congress and the presidency, expect a potential -7% to -10% in the broader market ($SPY) over 1 to 3 months after the election
Overall, market participants are "over-hedged" given recent volatility over the past three months. In the absence of a Democratic sweep, hedge funds are going to FOMO into higher net exposure through to the year's end to make up for the cost of current downside hedging and underexposure.
@CIG_Telegram
Paper
“Bondi Hero” Ahmed Al-Ahmed (the man who disarmed the ISIS terrorist in Australia on Sunday) received a phone call from the Foreign Minister of Syria.
During the call, Ahmed asks the Foreign Minister to pass on his “regards” to the new President of Syria, Al-Julani.
Both Al-Julani and Asaad al-Shaibani (the Foreign Minister of Syria) are members of Al Qaeda.
So we allegedly have somebody who sympathizes with terrorist Syrians stopping other terrorists?
Feels like a simulation.
"It does not matter whether this situation reflects planning on the part of a shadowy elite, or is emergent from the decline of your civilization. No matter whom you vote for, or what gloss your preferred candidate puts on these issues, nothing will change until you and enough of the people around you wake up to reality, and launch a campaign of consistent non-compliance with the antihuman trajectory that manipulative elites have set us upon.
It does not matter whether you label the centralizing ambitions of those elites as socialism, communism, technocracy, gobalism or fascism. It doesn’t matter whether you see them as reflecting philanthropic, criminal or satanic motives. The important thing about centralisation is that it absolutely requires censorship and comprehensive obliteration of rights and freedoms to persist, and that it is wholly incompatible with the flourishing of human beings...”
History doesn’t offer much hope. It seems always to have been the case that an ...
FBI Arrested A Fifth Trantifa Militant In NYE Bomb Plot
https://themanhattan.press/2025/12/17/fbi-arrested-a-fifth-trantifa-militant-in-nye-bomb-plot/
