We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🇺🇸 🇯🇵 🏦 From Nomura Charlie McElligott:
Markets have largely priced in a Trump victory and Wall Street seems to be eyeing a full Republican sweep next week.
In the event of a Harris victory and a gridlocked congress, traders are positioned "Risk Reversal" across asset classes sending bonds higher while sending interest rates, deregulation themes such as bank stocks ($XLF), gold, and bitcoin lower.
In the unlikely event of a full Democratic sweep of both the Senate, the House, and the Presidency, serious acute downside risks for the broader stock market is likely given negative growth implications of re-regulation and corporate tax hikes impact on earnings, especially after markets have already rallied considerably into the election on expectations of tax cuts.
🗒 In simple terms, if Harris wins but congress is R or split, bonds ($TLT) should rally while bank stocks ($XLF) gold, and bitcoin will likely see downside while the broader market ($SPY) will likely still rally into the end of the year
❗️ However, if Democrats sweep all of congress and the presidency, expect a potential -7% to -10% in the broader market ($SPY) over 1 to 3 months after the election
Overall, market participants are "over-hedged" given recent volatility over the past three months. In the absence of a Democratic sweep, hedge funds are going to FOMO into higher net exposure through to the year's end to make up for the cost of current downside hedging and underexposure.
@CIG_Telegram
Paper
The world’s fastest drone, the XLR V3, just went from 0 to 124 mph (200 km/h) in 1 second, faster than a Formula 1 car off the line.
Designed by Swiss engineers, the XLR V3 is a high performance FPV (First Person View) racing drone built with ultra light carbon fiber, high torque brushless motors, and cutting edge aerodynamics. It’s not just fast, it’s rewriting what’s possible in drone engineering.
This drone accelerates faster than:
✔️ An F1 car
✔️ A Tesla Plaid
✔️ Even a fighter jet on launch
Imagine what they're not showing us...
⚡️A Russian drone strike hit the car of Chief Rabbi Yosef Yitzchak Wolf in Kherson, head of the United Jewish Community of Ukraine’s local chapter.
Yosef is well known for assisting SBU and Nationalists in tracking down pro Russian Ukrainians who supported Russian forces during the liberation and uses his synagogue, as a shield, to help assemble FPVs for Ukrainian forces.
1. Geopolitical & Military Tensions
Thailand–Cambodia conflict: Martial law has been declared, over 138,000 people have fled, and both sides have exchanged fire. Terrain challenges and border disputes intensify risks of prolonged conflict.
Middle East flashpoints: The Gaza conflict escalates as Israel prepares for a major offensive and new ceasefire efforts stall. Suwayda, Syria, sees Druze self-administration declared.
Russia–Ukraine talks: Zelensky confirms negotiations, but a Putin-Zelensky meeting is still seen as unlikely by the Kremlin.
ISIS strike: U.S. CENTCOM killed a senior ISIS leader and his sons in Syria.
2. Western Politics, Immigration, and Populism
UK Islamophobia sentiment: A new survey shows over 50% of Britons view Islam as incompatible with British values, potentially fueling anti-immigration politics.
Jeremy Corbyn’s new party: Gathers 200,000 members; promotes anti-austerity, pro-immigrant policies in contrast to rising nationalist sentiment.
Anti-migration protests: Spread ...
🇨🇦 Stefan Molyneux on X: Almost every government policy in the West is designed to prevent family formation for the native population.
📝 Roger Marques: "Could not agree more.
Housing is expensive.
Families taxed to the bone.
Prices are so high that both elements of the couple must work.
Women are incentivized to not care about having children in their prime.
Public schooling literally retards children.
The culture is profoundly anti-children.
What else?"
