We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🇺🇸 🇯🇵 🏦 From Nomura Charlie McElligott:
Markets have largely priced in a Trump victory and Wall Street seems to be eyeing a full Republican sweep next week.
In the event of a Harris victory and a gridlocked congress, traders are positioned "Risk Reversal" across asset classes sending bonds higher while sending interest rates, deregulation themes such as bank stocks ($XLF), gold, and bitcoin lower.
In the unlikely event of a full Democratic sweep of both the Senate, the House, and the Presidency, serious acute downside risks for the broader stock market is likely given negative growth implications of re-regulation and corporate tax hikes impact on earnings, especially after markets have already rallied considerably into the election on expectations of tax cuts.
🗒 In simple terms, if Harris wins but congress is R or split, bonds ($TLT) should rally while bank stocks ($XLF) gold, and bitcoin will likely see downside while the broader market ($SPY) will likely still rally into the end of the year
❗️ However, if Democrats sweep all of congress and the presidency, expect a potential -7% to -10% in the broader market ($SPY) over 1 to 3 months after the election
Overall, market participants are "over-hedged" given recent volatility over the past three months. In the absence of a Democratic sweep, hedge funds are going to FOMO into higher net exposure through to the year's end to make up for the cost of current downside hedging and underexposure.
@CIG_Telegram
Paper
British man attacked for entering a ‘no-go zone’ in London.
A horde of Islamists surrounded him and questioned why he was in ‘their’ neighborhood.
They threatened him and began chanting ‘Allahu Akbar’ as they kicked him out.
Minister of State for Courts and MP for Finchley and Golders Green, Sarah Sackman, says religious courts like 'Shariah' are a fundamental part of 'British Values'.
A 65-year-old couple retiring in 2025 with average earnings will receive an estimated $1.34 million in lifetime benefits, while contributing only $720,000 in today’s dollars.
That shortfall—more than $600,000 per couple—is being made up by younger workers.
“Most of the growth in spending has gone to retirement and healthcare, while programs that promote upward mobility... have been left behind”
https://www.newsweek.com/social-security-medicare-young-workers-cost-10477619
