ANALYSIS: What's next for Israel between now and January 20, 2025?
During President Biden's 10 weeks left in office, Prime Minister Netanyahu will have to decide whether to heed his policy directives or treat him as a lame duck and effectively "hold" until Trump gets into office. The Washington Post reports that senior officials in the Biden administration know that their influence on other countries is waning and that their ability to make policy decisions may be limited once Trump is inaugurated on January 20.
Of the three separate conflicts in which Israel is currently involved—Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran—none are expected to be resolved before Trump takes office.
Next week, the Biden administration will face a decision on whether to impose an arms embargo on Israel. The 30-day deadline set by the U.S. for the Israeli government to increase humanitarian aid to northern Gaza expires, and if unmet, Israel could face a suspension of arms shipments and other assistance from the U.S. Senior officials from both the U.S. and Israel have held intensive talks about it, but little action has been taken by Israel so far.
One factor complicating the administration's decision is the knowledge that if Biden were to cut off military supplies to Israel, Trump—who has reportedly been in regular contact with PM Netanyahu and last month urged him to "do what you have to do" to win the war—could revoke the decision immediately upon taking office. In the meantime, Israel could completely block humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip.
Hams knows that time is of the essence for them. As soon as Trump becomes President, he is not likely to push Israel to supply aid to Gaza, and Hams will lose any ability to control Gaza, so we may see a hostage deal very soon.
Estimates suggest that the chances of reaching an agreement in Lebanon under Biden may be higher than reaching one in Gaza. The administration has a detailed plan for Lebanon, which Israel might be more willing to accept now that it has mostly achieved its goals, including dismantling Hezbollah’s leadership and infrastructure and evacuating the organization's terrorists from the south of the country near the border.
And then there's Iran, which is facing a major dilemma. The threats they've made in recent weeks seem to be pushing them toward an attack on Israel, but with Trump now elected, they might hold back.
It's also not clear how Tehran will react to another term of Trump, who may try to renew the campaign of "maximum pressure" on the Islamic Republic from his previous term in the White House in the form of sanctions and direct military actions against senior Iranian generals.
In the meantime, the dramatic dismissal of Defense Minister Yoav Galant by PM Netanyahu may further complicate the ability of the Biden administration to advance its policy goals in the Middle East. During the war that followed the October 7 massacre, senior American officials viewed Gallant as an "indispensable partner" and a key ally in the fight against the right in Netanyahu's coalition, some of whom strongly oppose providing humanitarian aid to Palestinians, and some of whom would like to see Jewish settlement in Gaza.
(Raylan Givens on X)
Yanis Varoufakis (former Greek Minister of Finance) describes AI as a new form of capital that produces not goods, but behavioral modification. This is achieved by engineering perceptions.
The answers provided by ChatGPT, or the images rendered by StableDiffusion — as these increasingly inform our perceptions, they in turn define the reality we experience.
This is what makes AI so powerful — he who controls the AI, defines the reality of tomorrow.
⚡️🇺🇸 Some more things coming out for the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA).
Under the preliminary drafts of the bill, the USAF is requesting a release of $57,000,000 USD ($57.0 Million) to retire all remaining 162 A-10 Thunderbolt IIs in current service. Apart of the 2023 NDAA, there was a clause for a few million dollars to be released every so often to gradually retire the (then) 250 airframes by 2034; however due to the push by the Dept of Defense to ‘shed’ obsolete or obsolescent airframes that cannot be overhauled or upgraded further without a whole new airframe, it appears the USAF wants to retire all 162 remaining A-10s by the end of 2026.
The USAF plans to fully divest the 340-total remaining A-10s entirely, including those that currently serve in a handful of Air National Guard units in some states; which will be replaced by F-15EX Eagle IIs (like what is already happening with the Michigan State Air National Guard’s A-10s), or F-35A/Bs.
Included ...
My older sister lives in the country in between Velma Oklahoma and Duncan Oklahoma near the Fuqua Lake area, this story was told by a rural mail delivery woman who delivers the mail in the country.
The incident happened while she was on her route, when she came upon to the mailbox a male Chinese nation came out brandishing a, AK-47 rifle being very hostile,
I don't know if he pointed it at her since it is against the law to do so but she was terrified and said she was never going back and that the location that had a guard tower. Was the sheriff department notified, I don't know, did she notify her supervisor, don't know. But word is from the country folk who live in the area they have seen the guard tower at the pot place;
I refuse to call it a farm because it is an insult to farmers.
And yes she was traumatized by that ordeal