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December 11, 2024
Drones

New Jersey State Police HQ following the briefing of New Jersey State Legislators relating to the unexplained drone sightings in New Jersey. Might I add -
@GovMurphy
was not present. My notes are organized following my take below on the situation. 1. We know nothing. PERIOD. To state that there is no known or credible threat is incredibly misleading, and I informed all officials of that sentiment. 2. State authorities, including the NJSP, are shackled with what they are able to do. Any interception or takedown of any UAS is under the strict jurisdiction of the federal government. 3. At this point, I believe military intervention is the only path forward. There will be no answers in the absence of proactivity. 4. The US Coast Guard seems to be the most likely to intervene based upon our briefing, but even that component was shrouded in mystery. Here is my summary of the briefing : Overview of the Issue: First Sightings: Reported on 11/18, with sightings occurring every night since then, from dusk until 11 PM (6–7 hours). Frequency: Reports range from 4 to 180 sightings per night. Description: Large drones (up to 6 ft in diameter). Operate in a coordinated manner. Lights are turned off, making them difficult to detect. Appear to avoid detection by traditional methods (e.g., helicopters, radio frequencies). Not identified as hobbyist drones or related to DHS. Investigation and Response 1. Agencies Involved: FBI: Designated as the lead agency for investigations. New Jersey State Police (NJSP): Coordinates with the FBI on follow-ups. Office of Homeland Security and Preparedness (OHSP): Provides training and situational awareness. U.S. Coast Guard: Involved in determining steps under their jurisdiction (details not disclosed). 2. Federal Involvement: FAA: Made night flights legal in 2023, but require operators to maintain line of sight, which is not being observed in these cases. Lack of Federal Legislation: Existing bills on drone regulation remain stalled in Congress. 3. Detection Challenges: NJSP deployed helicopters over Raritan Bay but could not detect drones, even with infrared cameras. Current radio frequencies do not pick up drone signals. Col. Callahan expressed concerns about potential danger, leading to a halt in helicopter deployments. 4. Training and Preparedness: In-person Counter-Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Training starts in Monmouth County in January and will expand statewide. A UAS Dashboard is being developed for tracking and managing drone sightings. Key Concerns Unknown Origins: Authorities do not know where these drones take off or land. Capabilities: Drones maintain flight for extended periods (6–7 hours) and over distances of 15 miles, raising questions about their technology and intent. Airspace Regulation: Most sightings are in unrestricted airspace, but their behavior is unusual and potentially nefarious. Unlike manned aircraft, these drones appear to operate without lights and evade detection. Public Safety: Possible threats remain unconfirmed, but the lack of detection capability is a significant concern. See Something, Say Something campaigns encourage the public to report sightings to local law enforcement and the FBI. Statements from Officials: Laurie Doran (Director of OHSP): There is no known or credible threat at this time. (I DISAGREE) Urges continued reporting to law enforcement. Colonel Pat Callahan (NJSP): Suspended helicopter flights to investigate drones over safety concerns. Emphasized the rapid pace of technological development in drones. Brent Cotton (DHS Counterterrorism): Highlighted challenges in threat prevention and the need for improved technology and protocols. Next Steps 1. Enhanced Surveillance: Use of infrared cameras and additional Coast Guard resources. 2. Legislation and Policy: Advocate for advancing federal drone legislation stalled in Congress. 3. Public Engagement: Encourage reporting via the See Something, Say Something initiative.

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OIL SHOCK

🇮🇱 ❌ 🇮🇷 🛢 📈 — Deutsche Bank: Oil Prices will go to $125/barrel if the Iran-Israel conflict spills over into the Straight of Hormuz

@CIG_Telegram

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Analysis

Developments in the Iran-Israel war. It is currently 1:11am in Tel Aviv and 1:42am in Tehran.

Main points:

Iran and Israel have started targeting each other’s energy infrastructure.

Iranian missiles continued to target and impact northern and central Israel.

Israel has started targeting Iranian oil infrastructure, including oil refineries and oil depots.

Israeli airstrikes continue to target various parts of Tehran and the surrounding areas.

Iranian air defence seems to finally be doing some damage to Israeli missiles and drones. In turn, Israel has deployed dozens of small quadcopters and loitering munitions to waste Iranian air defence and saturate for larger attacks with cruise missiles.

Drones launched from Iran and factions in Iraq continue to target northern and southern Israel.

Missiles & drones:

2 rockets were launched from the Khan Younis area of southern Gaza by an unknown Palestinian faction. Neither were intercepted, with the IDF claiming they hit an open area with no casualties.

2 rockets were ...

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OIL MARKETS REACT SHARPLY TO ESCALATING MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS

📈 WTI CRUDE IS NOW FORECAST TO HIT $94.10 BY YEAR-END, UP OVER $21 IN A WEEK, ACCORDING TO KALSHI MARKETS.

THE JUMP FOLLOWS IRAN’S CANCELLATION OF NUCLEAR TALKS WITH THE U.S., CITING ISRAELI AIRSTRIKES. WITH TENSIONS RISING, MARKETS ARE PRICING IN THE RISK OF REGIONAL ESCALATION AND POTENTIAL DISRUPTION TO OIL FLOWS THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, A KEY ROUTE FOR 20% OF GLOBAL OIL.

ANALYSTS WARN THAT A FULL CLOSURE OF THE STRAIT COULD PUSH PRICES ABOVE $120–$150 PER BARREL. ...

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