We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🇷🇺🇺🇦 "I see an inventory for 8-10 years of war or even more.
If anyone is expecting a Russian defeat due to high equipment losses, it’s unlikely to happen in the next 8-10 years or maybe more.
(Another question are the manufacture of parts like gun barrels and others. )
After three years of war, almost 50% of the Soviet stockpiles are still available, plus what is being repaired, refurbished, and modernized in Russian plants. Additionally, around 12,000–15,000 armored units, including artillery, armored vehicles, and tanks, are deployed in Ukraine. This represents a significant amount of equipment and the capacity to sustain this conflict for several years.
Contrary to what some might think, when an army is advancing, it benefits from collecting damaged and destroyed equipment to repair. This advantage is unique to an advancing army because a retreating force cannot recover anything in territory occupied by the enemy.
In areas where the front has been almost frozen over the last year and several months this year, the Ukrainians have been able to collect and repair most of their armor. However, as I reported in my previous articles, Western logistics have been challenging, with these vehicles having to travel more than 2,500 km for repairs, taking many months. In contrast, the Russians moved their repair centers from rear areas to near the front at the end of 2022. This exemplifies how Russian planning has been a key differentiator in this war.
Another issue is the unavailability of repair parts for Western equipment. According to the Ukrainian army, 70% of the delivered equipment lacks repair parts or has only a limited supply, and part requisitions have taken up to six months in some cases.
What I want to emphasize is that it is pure fantasy to expect to win this war by destroying the Russian armor arsenal. Despite losing more than they replace, the Russians are advancing and winning all key battles from the past two years.
What can Ukraine do under these circumstances?
Unfortunately, the only option is to negotiate. However, the West has important assets to negotiate with, such as Russian reserves and sanctions, with the intention of reducing unavoidable land concessions.
But negotiation is a cursed word for some politicians, so they are working to convince Western leaders to deploy an international peace force in Ukraine.
Ukraine need to find ways to advance diplomatically and reach it’s objectives. Sometimes the power sphere isn’t the military power."
📎 Patricia Marins
Speaking at the WEF, Savor CEO Kathleen Alexander boasts about how her company is "saving the planet" from the evils of agriculture by replacing real butters and oils with synthetic versions made from carbon dioxide and methane. 😳
"Savor is part of bringing transformation to the food system by re-imagining how we make an entire macronutrient—fats and oils."
"The result is that we can dramatically lower the planetary footprint of our food system."
"Our food system today uses about 50% of the habitable land on the planet. It's 20-30% of our greenhouse gas emissions."
"And we can reduce all of those by 50-100%."
Source
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🔥 Top Stories
• Middle East risk flares — IDF hits Hezbollah sites in south Lebanon; Houthis threaten Saudi assets; France deploys naval/mine-countermeasure assets near Hormuz.
• U.S. oil market scrutiny — DOJ/FTC say they’re monitoring crude for price-fixing/collusion as Brent settles at $72.12/bbl.
• Trump pardons saga — Trump signs pardons for six and faces fresh scrutiny after NBC reported undisclosed stock purchases before tariff pause.
⛽ Oil & Energy
• Gulf crude exports topped 10M bpd in June but remain ~40% below pre-conflict levels; Fitch flags ongoing Iran/Mideast risk to corporates and oil forecasts.
• CMA CGM warns Hormuz transit charges would be “devastating”; Airbus says defense cooperation remains pressured.
📊 Markets & Macro
• Germany’s 2027 draft budget lifts borrowing to €203.7B and spending to €555.4B; euro equities firm with DAX +0.85%.
• ECB/BoE message: inflation still the focus, but Bailey says UK ...
🇮🇷🏆🇺🇸 Iran Is a Bigger Defeat Than Vietnam | Foreign Policy
At his second inaugural, U.S. President Donald Trump pronounced his hope “that our recent presidential election will be remembered as the greatest and most consequential election in the history of our country.” By losing his Gulf war, Trump has achieved that goal. His choice to launch a campaign against Iran was encouraged by others, but fully his own. It has led to a reversal that marks a strategic calamity far greater than the U.S. defeat in the Vietnam War.
Defeat in the Iranian war looks, on the surface, nothing like other U.S. military defeats. The speed of the war and its remoteness have lent an air of unreality to the whole endeavor. The White House has not been burned, as it was in 1814; there have not been protests against a nonexistent draft. The absence of substantial U.S. casualties in this conflict also masks the scale of the U.S. defeat. To be sure, the war has been deadly: Thousands of Iranians, ...
According to The Wall Street Journal, Donald Trump reviewed military options for a full-scale war against Iran to “finish the job,” but has decided, for now, not to move forward.
The report says Trump is concerned that renewed military conflict could hurt the chances of a diplomatic resolution and of dismantling Iran’s nuclear program, and that he’s shown willingness to let indirect talks in Qatar run past the August 18 deadline. He is said to be fine with continuing limited strikes on Iranian targets if Tehran violates the current temporary deal - as it already has, repeatedly.
How are those negotiations going?
Not well. It seems JD Vance’s “historic” face-to-face achievement was a one-off. Washington has been quietly downgraded from talking to the Great Satan to negotiating with the Little Satan instead - a senior Qatari official confirmed that U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Qatari officials in Doha, but there are currently no high-level U.S.-Iran meetings ...
