🇷🇺🇺🇦 "I see an inventory for 8-10 years of war or even more.

If anyone is expecting a Russian defeat due to high equipment losses, it’s unlikely to happen in the next 8-10 years or maybe more.
(Another question are the manufacture of parts like gun barrels and others. )

After three years of war, almost 50% of the Soviet stockpiles are still available, plus what is being repaired, refurbished, and modernized in Russian plants. Additionally, around 12,000–15,000 armored units, including artillery, armored vehicles, and tanks, are deployed in Ukraine. This represents a significant amount of equipment and the capacity to sustain this conflict for several years.

Contrary to what some might think, when an army is advancing, it benefits from collecting damaged and destroyed equipment to repair. This advantage is unique to an advancing army because a retreating force cannot recover anything in territory occupied by the enemy.

In areas where the front has been almost frozen over the last year and several months this year, the Ukrainians have been able to collect and repair most of their armor. However, as I reported in my previous articles, Western logistics have been challenging, with these vehicles having to travel more than 2,500 km for repairs, taking many months. In contrast, the Russians moved their repair centers from rear areas to near the front at the end of 2022. This exemplifies how Russian planning has been a key differentiator in this war.

Another issue is the unavailability of repair parts for Western equipment. According to the Ukrainian army, 70% of the delivered equipment lacks repair parts or has only a limited supply, and part requisitions have taken up to six months in some cases.

What I want to emphasize is that it is pure fantasy to expect to win this war by destroying the Russian armor arsenal. Despite losing more than they replace, the Russians are advancing and winning all key battles from the past two years.

What can Ukraine do under these circumstances?

Unfortunately, the only option is to negotiate. However, the West has important assets to negotiate with, such as Russian reserves and sanctions, with the intention of reducing unavoidable land concessions.

But negotiation is a cursed word for some politicians, so they are working to convince Western leaders to deploy an international peace force in Ukraine.

Ukraine need to find ways to advance diplomatically and reach it’s objectives. Sometimes the power sphere isn’t the military power."

📎 Patricia Marins