💸 Luke Gromen on X:
"Why DOGE doing what Milei did in Argentina in the US will NOT lead to a decline in US deficit/GDP, but a catastrophic BLOWOUT in US deficit/GDP unless US debt/GDP (USD) is significantly devalued 1st (b/c US receipts follow stocks, & deficits rise fast w/rates at 125% of GDP):
If we want to cut Entitlements + Defense to reduce the deficit/GDP, only to end up with higher deficit/GDP by the end of 2025 as stocks fall hard & rates spike on strong USD (see Wed's post-Fed market action), then we should do what Milei did in Argentina before devaluing USD
US receipts fall when rates rise. US outlays rise nonlinearly when rates rise with $36T in in debt. And US receipts fall when stocks fall
The US govt allowed this system to evolve, now they are getting the system they wanted, good and hard.
If I wanted to ensure that the US deficit/GDP was a multiple of where it is today in 12 months' time, I'd slash govt spending before devaluing US debt/GDP (the USD.)
If I wanted to position the US fiscal position for growth, I'd devalue debt/GDP 1st (USD), then "DOGE"."
📎 Luke Gromen
⚡️🇺🇸🇮🇷 US CENTCOM:
At 5:45 p.m. ET today, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces launched multiple ballistic missiles from Iran in an attempted surprise attack on U.S. forces based in the Middle East. All Iranian missiles were successfully intercepted. U.S. forces remain vigilant and at a high state of readiness.
@wfwitness
The argument by law enforcement that Flock cameras help solve crimes could be used to argue in favor of any form of mass electronic surveillance. A system whereby the movements and actions of every man, woman and child in the United States is tracked electronically at all times would virtually eliminate all crime in this country.
Nobody is seriously advocating for an AI system to watch every human being, 24 hours a day, in their public and private lives—even though it would end or at least catch all crime—because as a society, stopping or catching crime is not our only priority. It's the only priority of law enforcement, but we don't live in a "cop"-ocracy. If every citizen lived in cells like on Alcatraz instead of private homes, that would also help prevent crime!
"Oh, but even though we're going to collect all the data, we're going to put in safeguards so it can't be used by bad actors!"
Well that same justification could be used to justify the AI skynet watching all people at ...
THE COST OF THE AMERICAN DREAM HAS EXPLODED.
Owning a home.
Buying groceries.
Driving to work.
Paying insurance.
Even your morning coffee.
Nearly every major household expense costs dramatically more than it did just a few years ago.
Over the last 7 years:
• Coffee: +127%
• Home prices: +60%
• Auto insurance: +51%
• Gasoline: +49%
• Electricity: +44%
• Shelter: +35%
• Groceries: +33%
And that's before paying for healthcare, transportation, or eating out.
This is why so many families feel like they're falling behind even when they get a raise.
The biggest financial problem for millions of Americans is that everything is going up at the same time, while the government keeps showing a 2% inflation target.
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