💸 Luke Gromen on X:
"Why DOGE doing what Milei did in Argentina in the US will NOT lead to a decline in US deficit/GDP, but a catastrophic BLOWOUT in US deficit/GDP unless US debt/GDP (USD) is significantly devalued 1st (b/c US receipts follow stocks, & deficits rise fast w/rates at 125% of GDP):
If we want to cut Entitlements + Defense to reduce the deficit/GDP, only to end up with higher deficit/GDP by the end of 2025 as stocks fall hard & rates spike on strong USD (see Wed's post-Fed market action), then we should do what Milei did in Argentina before devaluing USD
US receipts fall when rates rise. US outlays rise nonlinearly when rates rise with $36T in in debt. And US receipts fall when stocks fall
The US govt allowed this system to evolve, now they are getting the system they wanted, good and hard.
If I wanted to ensure that the US deficit/GDP was a multiple of where it is today in 12 months' time, I'd slash govt spending before devaluing US debt/GDP (the USD.)
If I wanted to position the US fiscal position for growth, I'd devalue debt/GDP 1st (USD), then "DOGE"."
📎 Luke Gromen
In 1983, America's biggest daytime talk show did something that's never happened since.
It spent an hour on a live debate on the DPT shot and vaccine mandates. Injured kids were in the studio, and the host asked what no host would dare ask today:
"Why does it have to be a law? Should we have the freedom to decide?"
🇺🇸 A Red Baron delivery worker went viral after snapping at a social media prankster who pretended to steal $10 from his phone via Apple Pay while he was working.
The father of four broke down over his exhausting schedule and financial struggles, prompting the internet to rally behind him. A GoFundMe has since raised more than $500,000, while Red Baron publicly backed the employee and confirmed his job is safe.
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New York fined private Amish schools $118,000 for refusing vaccine mandates.
Their lawyer says only the Supreme Court can save them now.