We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
💸 Luke Gromen on X:
"Why DOGE doing what Milei did in Argentina in the US will NOT lead to a decline in US deficit/GDP, but a catastrophic BLOWOUT in US deficit/GDP unless US debt/GDP (USD) is significantly devalued 1st (b/c US receipts follow stocks, & deficits rise fast w/rates at 125% of GDP):
If we want to cut Entitlements + Defense to reduce the deficit/GDP, only to end up with higher deficit/GDP by the end of 2025 as stocks fall hard & rates spike on strong USD (see Wed's post-Fed market action), then we should do what Milei did in Argentina before devaluing USD
US receipts fall when rates rise. US outlays rise nonlinearly when rates rise with $36T in in debt. And US receipts fall when stocks fall
The US govt allowed this system to evolve, now they are getting the system they wanted, good and hard.
If I wanted to ensure that the US deficit/GDP was a multiple of where it is today in 12 months' time, I'd slash govt spending before devaluing US debt/GDP (the USD.)
If I wanted to position the US fiscal position for growth, I'd devalue debt/GDP 1st (USD), then "DOGE"."
📎 Luke Gromen
Humanitarian lawyer and ex-aid worker Andrew MacLeod exposes the involvement of UN security staff in the sex trafficking of young girls, who were kept in cages and abused as sex slaves, with the full knowledge of the UN's leadership.
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Dr. David Martin: "Remdesivir was too unethical to put into Ebola clinical trials in Africa because it had a 53% kill rate."
"But it was chosen in April and May of 2020 to be the drug of choice to treat Covid... despite the fact that the World Health Organisation said it was unethical to use it."
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Serious allegations from former CIA officer Larry Johnson about Senator Lindsey Graham: “There will be news coming out in the next couple of months about how he has profited financially off of money that came out of Ukraine, laundered through Latvia and made it way into his bank account. And now we're talking significant amounts of money. Department of justice is looking at it.”
🇮🇱 ❌ 🇮🇷 🛢 📈 — Deutsche Bank: Oil Prices will go to $125/barrel if the Iran-Israel conflict spills over into the Straight of Hormuz
@CIG_Telegram
Developments in the Iran-Israel war. It is currently 1:11am in Tel Aviv and 1:42am in Tehran.
Main points:
Iran and Israel have started targeting each other’s energy infrastructure.
Iranian missiles continued to target and impact northern and central Israel.
Israel has started targeting Iranian oil infrastructure, including oil refineries and oil depots.
Israeli airstrikes continue to target various parts of Tehran and the surrounding areas.
Iranian air defence seems to finally be doing some damage to Israeli missiles and drones. In turn, Israel has deployed dozens of small quadcopters and loitering munitions to waste Iranian air defence and saturate for larger attacks with cruise missiles.
Drones launched from Iran and factions in Iraq continue to target northern and southern Israel.
Missiles & drones:
2 rockets were launched from the Khan Younis area of southern Gaza by an unknown Palestinian faction. Neither were intercepted, with the IDF claiming they hit an open area with no casualties.
2 rockets were ...
OIL MARKETS REACT SHARPLY TO ESCALATING MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS
📈 WTI CRUDE IS NOW FORECAST TO HIT $94.10 BY YEAR-END, UP OVER $21 IN A WEEK, ACCORDING TO KALSHI MARKETS.
THE JUMP FOLLOWS IRAN’S CANCELLATION OF NUCLEAR TALKS WITH THE U.S., CITING ISRAELI AIRSTRIKES. WITH TENSIONS RISING, MARKETS ARE PRICING IN THE RISK OF REGIONAL ESCALATION AND POTENTIAL DISRUPTION TO OIL FLOWS THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, A KEY ROUTE FOR 20% OF GLOBAL OIL.
ANALYSTS WARN THAT A FULL CLOSURE OF THE STRAIT COULD PUSH PRICES ABOVE $120–$150 PER BARREL. ...
