We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
IRAN’S DOWNFALL – THE IMMINENT FALL OF THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC:
Iran is in its worst position since it was established in 1979 due to a catastrophic year and is now facing an impossible path ahead. Here’s what you need to know.
445 days after October 7, where does Iran stand? It’s proxy in Gaza, Hamas, is no longer functioning as an organized military organization. It’s proxy in Lebanon, Hezbollah, has lost its charismatic leader, is completely crippled and stands at a fraction of its pre-war power. The Assad regime, which Iran spent tens of billions of dollars propping up, does not exist anymore.
Hamas will revert to what it was in the late 80s and 90s, a rag-tag militia with no rockets or influence. In it’s extremely weak state, if Hezbollah survives being eaten alive by internal politics in Lebanon, it will instead choke because it has no oxygen line through Syria. The massive Iranian weapons depot in Syria is now replaced with violently anti-Iranian militias. Even the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq see the writing on the wall and have been suspiciously absent with their “steadfast support for Palestine” since November.
Since the 1990s, Iran’s strategy has been to use their tens of billions of petro-dollars to “export” the revolution by setting up proxy groups across the Middle East. These groups were supposed to insulate Iran from direct attacks and entangle Israel in a constricting “web”. Now, the web has been brushed away, and Iran is naked. The taboo of direct strikes on Iranian territory is broken, and the proxy groups are gone.
Decades of focus on external groups has led to a situation where Iran has sorely neglected its own population – who now sense the blood in the water. The Iranian currency is collapsing, and the inflation rate is soaring. The Iranian rial reached an all-time low this week: 785,000 rials to one US dollar. One of the world’s richest energy powers cannot even provided basic electricity to its own people.
Iran’s failure to invest its money in energy/electricity infrastructure instead of terrorism will very soon translate into rising fuel and electricity prices - a significant economic burden on Iranian citizens, most of whom are poor. This has led to massive protests in the past and will likely do so again. Compounding this, the incoming Trump administration is going to further choke Iran’s economy while it is already dying. Sanctions are returning and Trump’s hardcore anti-Iranian cabinet are not going to play ball like Biden did.
Finally, Israel will attack Iran in the near future – this is a foregone conclusion. Iran has no air defenses, and all of its strategic assets are vulnerable. After a year of spectacular Israeli military victories, Netanyahu’s threats about Iran’s nuclear program aren’t just lip service – and Iran knows this. Israel is now the dominant regional power in the Middle East, and they will go for Iran’s jugular – all paths lead to Tehran.
(Raylan Givens on X)
✍️ @beholdisraelchannel
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🇮🇷🏆🇺🇸 Iran Is a Bigger Defeat Than Vietnam | Foreign Policy
At his second inaugural, U.S. President Donald Trump pronounced his hope “that our recent presidential election will be remembered as the greatest and most consequential election in the history of our country.” By losing his Gulf war, Trump has achieved that goal. His choice to launch a campaign against Iran was encouraged by others, but fully his own. It has led to a reversal that marks a strategic calamity far greater than the U.S. defeat in the Vietnam War.
Defeat in the Iranian war looks, on the surface, nothing like other U.S. military defeats. The speed of the war and its remoteness have lent an air of unreality to the whole endeavor. The White House has not been burned, as it was in 1814; there have not been protests against a nonexistent draft. The absence of substantial U.S. casualties in this conflict also masks the scale of the U.S. defeat. To be sure, the war has been deadly: Thousands of Iranians, ...
According to The Wall Street Journal, Donald Trump reviewed military options for a full-scale war against Iran to “finish the job,” but has decided, for now, not to move forward.
The report says Trump is concerned that renewed military conflict could hurt the chances of a diplomatic resolution and of dismantling Iran’s nuclear program, and that he’s shown willingness to let indirect talks in Qatar run past the August 18 deadline. He is said to be fine with continuing limited strikes on Iranian targets if Tehran violates the current temporary deal - as it already has, repeatedly.
How are those negotiations going?
Not well. It seems JD Vance’s “historic” face-to-face achievement was a one-off. Washington has been quietly downgraded from talking to the Great Satan to negotiating with the Little Satan instead - a senior Qatari official confirmed that U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Qatari officials in Doha, but there are currently no high-level U.S.-Iran meetings ...
