We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
IRAN’S DOWNFALL – THE IMMINENT FALL OF THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC:
Iran is in its worst position since it was established in 1979 due to a catastrophic year and is now facing an impossible path ahead. Here’s what you need to know.
445 days after October 7, where does Iran stand? It’s proxy in Gaza, Hamas, is no longer functioning as an organized military organization. It’s proxy in Lebanon, Hezbollah, has lost its charismatic leader, is completely crippled and stands at a fraction of its pre-war power. The Assad regime, which Iran spent tens of billions of dollars propping up, does not exist anymore.
Hamas will revert to what it was in the late 80s and 90s, a rag-tag militia with no rockets or influence. In it’s extremely weak state, if Hezbollah survives being eaten alive by internal politics in Lebanon, it will instead choke because it has no oxygen line through Syria. The massive Iranian weapons depot in Syria is now replaced with violently anti-Iranian militias. Even the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq see the writing on the wall and have been suspiciously absent with their “steadfast support for Palestine” since November.
Since the 1990s, Iran’s strategy has been to use their tens of billions of petro-dollars to “export” the revolution by setting up proxy groups across the Middle East. These groups were supposed to insulate Iran from direct attacks and entangle Israel in a constricting “web”. Now, the web has been brushed away, and Iran is naked. The taboo of direct strikes on Iranian territory is broken, and the proxy groups are gone.
Decades of focus on external groups has led to a situation where Iran has sorely neglected its own population – who now sense the blood in the water. The Iranian currency is collapsing, and the inflation rate is soaring. The Iranian rial reached an all-time low this week: 785,000 rials to one US dollar. One of the world’s richest energy powers cannot even provided basic electricity to its own people.
Iran’s failure to invest its money in energy/electricity infrastructure instead of terrorism will very soon translate into rising fuel and electricity prices - a significant economic burden on Iranian citizens, most of whom are poor. This has led to massive protests in the past and will likely do so again. Compounding this, the incoming Trump administration is going to further choke Iran’s economy while it is already dying. Sanctions are returning and Trump’s hardcore anti-Iranian cabinet are not going to play ball like Biden did.
Finally, Israel will attack Iran in the near future – this is a foregone conclusion. Iran has no air defenses, and all of its strategic assets are vulnerable. After a year of spectacular Israeli military victories, Netanyahu’s threats about Iran’s nuclear program aren’t just lip service – and Iran knows this. Israel is now the dominant regional power in the Middle East, and they will go for Iran’s jugular – all paths lead to Tehran.
(Raylan Givens on X)
✍️ @beholdisraelchannel
Pedophile elites wanted to buy an Island, asked if it "comes with children".
Agent replied, the Island "does have a small school"
They don't know camera was rolling
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🇺🇸 #Oklahoma high school principal (Kirk Moore) seen charging at and disarming a school shooter.
The suspect, identified as 20-year-old Victor Hawkins, was a former student who said he wanted to shoot up the school “like the Columbine shooters did.” While taking down the shooter, Moore was shot in the leg. He is expected to recover.
When the Principal woke up that day, he never thought he would be tackling a gunman.
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Oilprice.com
Two months after the U.S. and Israel bombed Iran on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for most tanker traffic, forcing more than 10 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude output shut-ins across the Middle Eastern oil producers.
The two-month-long closure of the Strait of Hormuz is longer than analysts had expected at the start of the war. Most assumed back then that the Strait would open by April and producers could restart shut-in wells in May.
Even if the Strait of Hormuz opened to free tanker traffic today, oil supply from the Middle East will take months to start flowing again and reach consumers in Asia, who were the first to feel the supply shock.
The longer the chokepoint remains off limits to most tanker traffic, the worse the scars would be on global supply and economic growth.
The restart of thousands of oil wells across the Middle East would be a big challenge. Some countries would need weeks, but others – like Iraq – many months to bring ...
🍚 War on Iran & El Niño threaten world rice production
Global rice supply is expected to decline this year as farmers across Asia reduce planting areas due to fertilizer shortages and higher fuel costs linked to the US-Israeli war on Iran, while an emerging El Niño weather pattern is also likely to further limit production of the world’s most widely consumed staple.
The impact of the war in West Asia is being felt by farmers in major exporting countries such as Thailand and Vietnam, as well as in import-dependent nations like the Philippines and Indonesia, according to growers and traders. Disruptions to fuel and fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global shipping chokepoint linking the Gulf to international markets, have contributed to the strain.
Smallholder farmers in Southeast Asia are also facing added pressure as El Niño is expected to bring hotter and drier conditions in the second half of the year.
🔗 The Cradle
🛢 “Why aren’t oil prices higher?” “How can the oil market be so complacent?”
Oil prices almost always trade to extremes. Right before it does, it always gets “obvious” from a fundamental setup standpoint.
I remember a great conversation I had with Nelson Wu of Open Square Capital about the oil market being analogous to toilet paper. You don’t realize how badly you need it until you run out of it.
Oil prices trade on the margin. As long as there are onshore inventories to draw from, traders don’t panic. It’s when you run low on onshore inventories that panic starts to set in.
Goldman published an update on Thursday that basically captured the storage math phenomenon that we are seeing:
Global visible total oil inventories remain bloated relative to historical standards. If, for example, we had started the conflict with global oil inventories at the 2025 lows, WTI and Brent would already be above $200/bbl.
The ~1.4 billion bbl cushion at the start of 2026 is what gave the US ...
