We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
As 2024 inches to it's last breath...we've been witnesses to events in this year which nobody have ever imagined. Contemplating most people who followed this year's happenings it was just the pre-nups to what is to unfold especially in 2025.
What many don't realize starting from 2022 events happened in systematic manner to not raise panic and make "Wars" a generalized event...so nobody will question what is still building up!
We saw space warfare...nobody questioned it, we saw direct attacks on Nuclear Power plants...nobody questioned it, we saw use of conventional Nuclear weapons nobody questioned it, heck we even saw deep sea warfare...nobody questioned it..
2025 is no party as most already know it's a year of Conflicts & which country holds the Global position!
What most of us will be watching is - Will China trigger the Timeline with it's Invasion of Taiwan...which most of us know practically with a 75% certainity that it will very likely happen in the year 2025...the question is now only the time & place!!
Intellectual masking is the deliberate regulation of how much of your knowledge, reasoning, and analytical ability you reveal so that others form a controlled (and often incomplete) assessment of your capabilities.
Its purpose is to manage perception, reduce unnecessary attention, encourage others to reveal more information, and preserve strategic advantage until demonstrating full competence serves your objective.
🛢 We Are 'Still' Going Full Speed Into The Wall
Product storage is about to get tighter unless China steps in and lifts the product export ban. If it does, expect a meaningful reversal in crude.
WTI is barely hanging on to $70 for its dear life, but please remember that consumers use petroleum products like gasoline and diesel; they don’t use crude oil. Refineries do, and this is why it was always important for us to pay attention to crack spreads along with crude timespreads.
Note: Please divide it by 3.
The fever in the market today is that crude is oversupplied, but products are undersupplied. How can this be possible?
Well, China’s June crude import data so far is -4.7 million b/d y-o-y, and teapot refineries are operating at 50% utilization. Compared to US refineries operating at 95% and PADD 2 refineries operating over 100%, you can see where the disconnect is.
But here’s the thing. If end-user demand isn’t down and you still have a production shut-in of ~8 million...
🇮🇷🚫🚢 Here's my analysis of the Strait of Hormuz situation for the last 24 hours.
As I noted yesterday, I was seeing a lot of vessels using the Oman route to exit. This was following the announcement by Oman and IMO. The IRGC retaliated today on a vessel, but even after the attack, I am still seeing transits. It's a lot less, but there are vessels willing to take the risk.
On the inbound front, the flow is still heavily restricted. Whatever outflow we are seeing today is unsustainable as there are not enough non-Iranian tankers going in. In particular, we need empty VLCCs going in to load up crude. This is just a trickle so far.
In my view, the traffic in the Oman lane will lead to more escalation by IRGC. Without throttling flows entirely in the Southern lane, IRGC will lose control of its leverage over the Strait. If they act, then it's a question of what the US does after.
I think this is only the beginning.
🔗 @HFI_Research
