We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🇬🇧🤡 How the British Government Covered Up 🇵🇰 Pakistani Grooming Gangs?
🇺🇸 US billionaire Elon Musk has sparked the controversy by calling out the UK government for failing to act on grooming gangs, which reportedly exploited 1,400+ children over the period of 1997-2013, while the authorities dismissed the issue.
💢 Musk labeled these crimes as a "mass crime" and accused PM Keir Starmer of complicity for not taking action.
What are these grooming gangs?
🤬 The grooming gangs, largely composed of men of Pakistani descent, targeted and abused young girls for years across cities like Rotherham, Rochdale, Telford, and others.
Threatening the victims with murder and threats of harming their families if they complained led many victims to suffer silently at the hands of the Islamists.
👮♀️ Investigations revealed systemic failures, with multiple scandals showing how authorities ignored or mishandled these crimes, because they feared of raising Islamophobic backlash in the country.
◾️ In 2023, then-Prime Minister Rishi Sunak launched a task force to combat grooming gangs, yet public outrage continues over the lack of accountability and delayed justice.
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🛢 We Are 'Still' Going Full Speed Into The Wall
Product storage is about to get tighter unless China steps in and lifts the product export ban. If it does, expect a meaningful reversal in crude.
WTI is barely hanging on to $70 for its dear life, but please remember that consumers use petroleum products like gasoline and diesel; they don’t use crude oil. Refineries do, and this is why it was always important for us to pay attention to crack spreads along with crude timespreads.
Note: Please divide it by 3.
The fever in the market today is that crude is oversupplied, but products are undersupplied. How can this be possible?
Well, China’s June crude import data so far is -4.7 million b/d y-o-y, and teapot refineries are operating at 50% utilization. Compared to US refineries operating at 95% and PADD 2 refineries operating over 100%, you can see where the disconnect is.
But here’s the thing. If end-user demand isn’t down and you still have a production shut-in of ~8 million...
🇮🇷🚫🚢 Here's my analysis of the Strait of Hormuz situation for the last 24 hours.
As I noted yesterday, I was seeing a lot of vessels using the Oman route to exit. This was following the announcement by Oman and IMO. The IRGC retaliated today on a vessel, but even after the attack, I am still seeing transits. It's a lot less, but there are vessels willing to take the risk.
On the inbound front, the flow is still heavily restricted. Whatever outflow we are seeing today is unsustainable as there are not enough non-Iranian tankers going in. In particular, we need empty VLCCs going in to load up crude. This is just a trickle so far.
In my view, the traffic in the Oman lane will lead to more escalation by IRGC. Without throttling flows entirely in the Southern lane, IRGC will lose control of its leverage over the Strait. If they act, then it's a question of what the US does after.
I think this is only the beginning.
🔗 @HFI_Research
