We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
💰 📈 🌐 Gold inventories in the 3 largest COMEX gold vaults just surged by 15 MILLION ounces in 2 months.
⬛️ That's a +115% increase, putting physical gold holdings ABOVE 2020 pandemic levels.
🔶️ These are secure gold storage facilities approved by the Commodity Exchange (COMEX). They are literally located under and around Manhattan, NY. January ALONE saw 19+ THOUSAND contracts delivered. Never in HISTORY have we seen buying like this.
🇬🇧 As COMEX inventories surge, London vault inventories are being depleted. Withdrawal times in London are rising toward 8 WEEKS. Meanwhile, the US has switched from being a net gold exporter to a net gold importer in November 2024.
🔶️ Clearly, US gold markets and physical gold demand is signaling a major pivot from the norm. Gold prices are now up +40% in 12 months as the US Dollar and interest rates are up sharply. Not even a 10% pullback seems to be attainable. This has never happened in history.
🇨🇳 China has also joined the gold buying party. China’s central bank bought 5 tonnes of gold in January, its 3rd consecutive monthly purchase. Assets in Chinese Gold ETFs have TRIPLED in just 18 months. There are now $9.5 BILLION of assets in Chinese gold ETFs alone.
🔶️ What's even more unusual is gold has DOUBLED the S&P 500's +22% return over the last 12 months. Usually gold prices are a hedge against equity market volatility. As stocks have posted a historic rally, gold has posted an even more historic rally. Truly unusual.
🔶️ The beginning of President Trump's trade war has only accelerated this trend. While precious metals are not currently a part of these tariffs, they are serving as the GLOBAL hedge. We expect gold to continue to serve as the global hedge against inflation AND uncertainty.
🔶️ And this is particularly the case as US Deficit spending is out of control. The US has borrowed $838 BILLION in the first 4 months of FY 2025. This is crushing bond prices as treasury yields are driven higher. Gold's position as the global hedge has only grown as a result.
🔗 Kobeissi Letter
🇺🇸 #Oklahoma high school principal (Kirk Moore) seen charging at and disarming a school shooter.
The suspect, identified as 20-year-old Victor Hawkins, was a former student who said he wanted to shoot up the school “like the Columbine shooters did.” While taking down the shooter, Moore was shot in the leg. He is expected to recover.
When the Principal woke up that day, he never thought he would be tackling a gunman.
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🇨🇳🛢 How much strategic oil does the world actually have in reserve?
Global strategic crude oil inventories stood at ~2.5 BILLION barrels as of December 2025, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
China holds by far the largest stockpile at 1,397 million barrels, more than 3 times the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve of 413 million barrels, which itself sits at only 58% of its full storage capacity of 714 million barrels.
China added an average of 1.1 million barrels per day to its strategic inventories throughout 2025, with preliminary data suggesting it continued building stockpiles in early 2026 ahead of the Iran War.
Japan holds the 3rd-largest reserve at 263 million barrels, followed by OECD European countries at 179 million barrels.
Meanwhile, the US is releasing 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to suppress oil prices, part of a broader 400 million barrel coordinated release agreed by 32 IEA member nations in March.
🔗 ...
🛢 JP Morgan Warns Oil Market Out of Balance, Prices Must Rise
🔸The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows, has removed 13.7 million barrels per day from global supply in April alone. A JP Morgan research note warns the market has no good way to replace it.
🔸Normally, spare production capacity in Saudi Arabia and the UAE acts as the market’s shock absorber. But that buffer has effectively been removed, eliminating the system’s first line of defense.
🔸With spare capacity unavailable, markets turned to inventories
➤ Global stockpiles are now being drained at ~7.1 mbd in April, an extraordinary pace, according to the note.
🔸Meanwhile, demand is collapsing because supply simply isn’t reaching users — “forced demand destruction.”The hardest hit sectors include:
▪️ Petrochemical plants across Asia are shutting down or slashing output as LPG, ethane, and naphtha flows from the Gulf collapse
▪️ Airline jet fuel ...
🛢⛽️ Global oil inventories are heading toward RECORD LOWS:
Global visible oil inventories have fallen -255 million barrels since the start of the conflict on February 27, to 7,864 million barrels.
Total estimated oil draws, including non-OECD refined products storage, have accelerated to 10.9 million barrels per day in April, the largest monthly draws on record since 2017.
Cumulative estimated draws since the start of the war now stand at 474 million barrels, with Hormuz flows holding at ~10% of normal, or 2.0 million barrels per day.
Meanwhile, even in an optimistic scenario where Strait of Hormuz flows begin recovering by late April, it is unlikely to prevent global visible inventories from reaching all-time lows, according to Goldman Sachs.
As inventories keep falling, physical oil markets are likely to require sharply higher prices for immediate delivery, since buyers cannot wait months for cheaper futures delivery when stocks are running critically low.
Goldman also warns...
