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February 12, 2025
Gold.

💰 📈 🌐 Gold inventories in the 3 largest COMEX gold vaults just surged by 15 MILLION ounces in 2 months.

⬛️ That's a +115% increase, putting physical gold holdings ABOVE 2020 pandemic levels.

🔶️ These are secure gold storage facilities approved by the Commodity Exchange (COMEX). They are literally located under and around Manhattan, NY. January ALONE saw 19+ THOUSAND contracts delivered. Never in HISTORY have we seen buying like this.

🇬🇧 As COMEX inventories surge, London vault inventories are being depleted. Withdrawal times in London are rising toward 8 WEEKS. Meanwhile, the US has switched from being a net gold exporter to a net gold importer in November 2024.

🔶️ Clearly, US gold markets and physical gold demand is signaling a major pivot from the norm. Gold prices are now up +40% in 12 months as the US Dollar and interest rates are up sharply. Not even a 10% pullback seems to be attainable. This has never happened in history.

🇨🇳 China has also joined the gold buying party. China’s central bank bought 5 tonnes of gold in January, its 3rd consecutive monthly purchase. Assets in Chinese Gold ETFs have TRIPLED in just 18 months. There are now $9.5 BILLION of assets in Chinese gold ETFs alone.

🔶️ What's even more unusual is gold has DOUBLED the S&P 500's +22% return over the last 12 months. Usually gold prices are a hedge against equity market volatility. As stocks have posted a historic rally, gold has posted an even more historic rally. Truly unusual.

🔶️ The beginning of President Trump's trade war has only accelerated this trend. While precious metals are not currently a part of these tariffs, they are serving as the GLOBAL hedge. We expect gold to continue to serve as the global hedge against inflation AND uncertainty.

🔶️ And this is particularly the case as US Deficit spending is out of control. The US has borrowed $838 BILLION in the first 4 months of FY 2025. This is crushing bond prices as treasury yields are driven higher. Gold's position as the global hedge has only grown as a result.

🔗 Kobeissi Letter

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