We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
Hamas and Islamic Jihad anticipate that the ongoing hostage deal will soon collapse due to Israel’s stance and the support of the Trump administration. In response, they are coordinating with Iran to prepare for renewed fighting.
According to intelligence assessments in Israel, Hamas is actively using the current ceasefire to restore its military capabilities and replenish its ranks with new recruits in preparation for a return to combat in the Gaza Strip.
Hamas assumes that Israel, backed by the Trump administration, will not alter its positions regarding key negotiation points, including the return of all hostages, the reduction of Hamas’ control over Gaza, the disarmament of its military wing, and the deportation of its leadership abroad.
Hamas publicly announced days ago that it will not relinquish its rule in Gaza, disarm, or deport its leaders.
This fundamental gap in positions appears irreconcilable, and officials in Hamas and Islamic Jihad acknowledge this reality.
For this reason, security sources report that Hamas and Islamic Jihad delegations recently traveled to Tehran, where they met with Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), General Hossein Salami, to coordinate their next moves against Israel.
On February 21, General Ibrahim Jabari, an advisor to the IRGC commander, threatened during a military exercise that “Operation The Righteous Truth Number 3” would be launched at an opportune moment to destroy Israel, specifically targeting Tel Aviv and Haifa.
Senior security officials believe that these Tehran meetings resulted in agreements on financial aid transfers to Hamas and the smuggling of weapons into Gaza and terrorist groups in northern Samaria.
Hamas’ military wing is reportedly planning renewed attacks inside Israeli territory.
The recent failed terrorist attacks on buses in Bat Yam and Holon should be viewed in this context.
Additionally, the release of hundreds of terrorists into Judea and Samaria during the first phase of the deal has strengthened Hamas’ military capabilities in the field.
Commentators in Gaza predict that Israel will resume fighting by mid-March.
They expect Israel to focus first on suppressing terrorist activity in northern Samaria before shifting additional forces to Gaza.
According to these assessments, Israel is likely to restart military operations once negotiations on the second phase of the deal reach a deadlock and after the new Chief of Staff, Eyal Zamir, assumes office early next month.
Hamas anticipates that the renewed fighting will be intense, with backing from the Trump administration.
The IDF is expected to launch large-scale incursions into areas it previously avoided, such as refugee camps in central Gaza.
Rather than isolated raids, the anticipated strategy involves dividing the Gaza Strip into three sections using three IDF divisions in the initial phase. This maneuver will also halt the flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza.
(Yoni Ben Menachem)
🇺🇸 #Oklahoma high school principal (Kirk Moore) seen charging at and disarming a school shooter.
The suspect, identified as 20-year-old Victor Hawkins, was a former student who said he wanted to shoot up the school “like the Columbine shooters did.” While taking down the shooter, Moore was shot in the leg. He is expected to recover.
When the Principal woke up that day, he never thought he would be tackling a gunman.
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🇨🇳🛢 How much strategic oil does the world actually have in reserve?
Global strategic crude oil inventories stood at ~2.5 BILLION barrels as of December 2025, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
China holds by far the largest stockpile at 1,397 million barrels, more than 3 times the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve of 413 million barrels, which itself sits at only 58% of its full storage capacity of 714 million barrels.
China added an average of 1.1 million barrels per day to its strategic inventories throughout 2025, with preliminary data suggesting it continued building stockpiles in early 2026 ahead of the Iran War.
Japan holds the 3rd-largest reserve at 263 million barrels, followed by OECD European countries at 179 million barrels.
Meanwhile, the US is releasing 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to suppress oil prices, part of a broader 400 million barrel coordinated release agreed by 32 IEA member nations in March.
🔗 ...
🛢 JP Morgan Warns Oil Market Out of Balance, Prices Must Rise
🔸The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows, has removed 13.7 million barrels per day from global supply in April alone. A JP Morgan research note warns the market has no good way to replace it.
🔸Normally, spare production capacity in Saudi Arabia and the UAE acts as the market’s shock absorber. But that buffer has effectively been removed, eliminating the system’s first line of defense.
🔸With spare capacity unavailable, markets turned to inventories
➤ Global stockpiles are now being drained at ~7.1 mbd in April, an extraordinary pace, according to the note.
🔸Meanwhile, demand is collapsing because supply simply isn’t reaching users — “forced demand destruction.”The hardest hit sectors include:
▪️ Petrochemical plants across Asia are shutting down or slashing output as LPG, ethane, and naphtha flows from the Gulf collapse
▪️ Airline jet fuel ...
🛢⛽️ Global oil inventories are heading toward RECORD LOWS:
Global visible oil inventories have fallen -255 million barrels since the start of the conflict on February 27, to 7,864 million barrels.
Total estimated oil draws, including non-OECD refined products storage, have accelerated to 10.9 million barrels per day in April, the largest monthly draws on record since 2017.
Cumulative estimated draws since the start of the war now stand at 474 million barrels, with Hormuz flows holding at ~10% of normal, or 2.0 million barrels per day.
Meanwhile, even in an optimistic scenario where Strait of Hormuz flows begin recovering by late April, it is unlikely to prevent global visible inventories from reaching all-time lows, according to Goldman Sachs.
As inventories keep falling, physical oil markets are likely to require sharply higher prices for immediate delivery, since buyers cannot wait months for cheaper futures delivery when stocks are running critically low.
Goldman also warns...
