We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
The Economic War Against Iran and the Danger of Its Collapse
Amid an unusual concentration of American forces in the Middle East, many are wondering whether a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities is imminent. However, beneath the radar, a war has already begun—one that is economic, paralyzing, and devastating.
In the last three months, the United States has launched a full-scale economic war against Iran. Immediately upon Donald Trump’s return to the White House, crippling sanctions were imposed on the Islamic Republic. Chief among them is a clear threat: any company that leases an oil tanker to Iran or any port in the world that unloads Iranian oil will face U.S. blacklisting.
Collapse from Within: A Disintegrating Economy, Citizens in Crisis
The Iranian rial, the local currency, is plummeting uncontrollably. As of now, it trades at around 1,039,000 rials to the dollar—a drop of more than 30% in just the past three months. The implication is stark: to purchase basic goods, Iranian citizens must carry bags full of cash. This is a failing economy by every measure.
Official inflation is reported at 30–40%, though unofficial estimates suggest it is even higher. Under such conditions, an economy cannot function—it simply collapses.
Infrastructure Collapse and the Threat of Nationwide Multi-Front Chaos
Iran is grappling with:
- A severe water crisis: Approximately 35 million residents face water shortages due to mismanagement and severe drought.
- Power shortages: Planned blackouts and crumbling infrastructure persist, despite Iran sitting atop vast gas reserves.
- A weakened regular army: The proxy project has drained Iran’s economic resources, leaving little to invest in its air force, logistics, or manpower.
What Does This Mean?
Iran shares a land border spanning roughly 5,600 kilometers with seven countries and is surrounded by a diverse ethnic mix along its frontiers. Many of these minority groups view themselves as distinct entities separate from the Persian state.
The combination of failing water systems, electricity shortages, and a weakened military could precipitate Iran’s collapse. A crisis in energy, infrastructure, water, and the regular army is creating security and civilian tensions that destabilize peripheral regions far from Tehran.
Tehran’s ability to maintain control over its territory is limited. The same reason President Raisi died when his helicopter was lost—poor infrastructure and coordination—illustrates why Iran would struggle to deploy forces across the country to maintain order.
Iran is becoming increasingly vulnerable to rebellions, crime, and terrorism along its vast borders. It is effectively trapped in a dictatorial bubble: it lacks funds, its situation is deteriorating, and more resources are being diverted to suppress its own people.
A Breaking Point
Iran cannot sustain this status quo. It is panicked and fearful, fully aware that if it does not reach an agreement with Trump, it risks a genuine economic collapse. Yet, if it does sign a serious deal, it would signal the end of the regime—shattering it on a theological level as well.
Iran is in an extremely dire situation. This presents a strategic opportunity for Israel and the United States.
(Topaz Ram)
🇺🇸 #Oklahoma high school principal (Kirk Moore) seen charging at and disarming a school shooter.
The suspect, identified as 20-year-old Victor Hawkins, was a former student who said he wanted to shoot up the school “like the Columbine shooters did.” While taking down the shooter, Moore was shot in the leg. He is expected to recover.
When the Principal woke up that day, he never thought he would be tackling a gunman.
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🇨🇳🛢 How much strategic oil does the world actually have in reserve?
Global strategic crude oil inventories stood at ~2.5 BILLION barrels as of December 2025, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
China holds by far the largest stockpile at 1,397 million barrels, more than 3 times the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve of 413 million barrels, which itself sits at only 58% of its full storage capacity of 714 million barrels.
China added an average of 1.1 million barrels per day to its strategic inventories throughout 2025, with preliminary data suggesting it continued building stockpiles in early 2026 ahead of the Iran War.
Japan holds the 3rd-largest reserve at 263 million barrels, followed by OECD European countries at 179 million barrels.
Meanwhile, the US is releasing 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to suppress oil prices, part of a broader 400 million barrel coordinated release agreed by 32 IEA member nations in March.
🔗 ...
🛢 JP Morgan Warns Oil Market Out of Balance, Prices Must Rise
🔸The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows, has removed 13.7 million barrels per day from global supply in April alone. A JP Morgan research note warns the market has no good way to replace it.
🔸Normally, spare production capacity in Saudi Arabia and the UAE acts as the market’s shock absorber. But that buffer has effectively been removed, eliminating the system’s first line of defense.
🔸With spare capacity unavailable, markets turned to inventories
➤ Global stockpiles are now being drained at ~7.1 mbd in April, an extraordinary pace, according to the note.
🔸Meanwhile, demand is collapsing because supply simply isn’t reaching users — “forced demand destruction.”The hardest hit sectors include:
▪️ Petrochemical plants across Asia are shutting down or slashing output as LPG, ethane, and naphtha flows from the Gulf collapse
▪️ Airline jet fuel ...
🛢⛽️ Global oil inventories are heading toward RECORD LOWS:
Global visible oil inventories have fallen -255 million barrels since the start of the conflict on February 27, to 7,864 million barrels.
Total estimated oil draws, including non-OECD refined products storage, have accelerated to 10.9 million barrels per day in April, the largest monthly draws on record since 2017.
Cumulative estimated draws since the start of the war now stand at 474 million barrels, with Hormuz flows holding at ~10% of normal, or 2.0 million barrels per day.
Meanwhile, even in an optimistic scenario where Strait of Hormuz flows begin recovering by late April, it is unlikely to prevent global visible inventories from reaching all-time lows, according to Goldman Sachs.
As inventories keep falling, physical oil markets are likely to require sharply higher prices for immediate delivery, since buyers cannot wait months for cheaper futures delivery when stocks are running critically low.
Goldman also warns...
