We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
Beijing's Green Light | zerohedge
⬛️ "China stimulus is coming"
🔶 After repeatedly teasing the idea of incoming stimulus several times last year, getting investors' hopes up only to scale it back and disappoint, recent memos from State officials give China's stimulus plans a precise framework they are looking to deliver on. Officials indicated they are waiting to launch the long-awaited "stimulus bazooka" once improving Chinese economic data is met with deteriorating US data.
🔶 This is a historically unusual combination, as global financial flows tend to move in sync (booms and busts are global). Never before has the US entered into a downturn without China. It suggests that Beijing is waiting for signs that the Mainland economy has decoupled before deploying roaring stimulus.
🔶 Finance Minister Lan Fuan points to the fact that Chinese strength relative to US weakness would necessarily attract new foreign direct investment (FDI). Positive real GDP and new FDI coupled with massive consumption stimulus is the path China seeks out of the stubborn economic malaise it has faced since Covid.
🔶 The Chinese State Council released a better-than-expected Q1 GDP report this week, and US GDP looks to decline in Q1. That's the exact divergence Chinese officials have been waiting for to greenlight massive stimulus.
🔶 Chinese stimulus will mean inflation (rising wages, growth and improved employment) and higher bond yields. China's lenders will be in a stronger position and credit spreads will lower. Chinese equities, specifically in sectors whose performance is tied to domestic demand, will also benefit. Demand for industrial commodities - in particular oil, copper and other metals - will increase.
🔶 Western officials continue to talk up looming delisting threats and investment bans, but both look to be far off as reciprocal investment bans from China could collapse the private sector and disturb the Treasury market in ways that would make the recent stress look like a walk in the park.
By DeathTaxesandQE
Ukrainian forces have begun training and testing exoskeletons for battlefield use. Soldiers from the 147th Separate Artillery Brigade are using them in the Pokrovsk sector for both logistics and frontline operations. The goal is to reduce physical strain, especially when loading heavy artillery shells into howitzers without automatic loaders. Artillery crews can handle up to 1200 kg of ammunition per day, and early tests show that exoskeletons help them work faster and with less fatigue Above all, by improving the conditions for those soldiers on the front lines who handle such heavy loads, plus the stress of work. Seeking to reduce overall fatigue in the troops
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🇮🇷🇮🇱 - 14 wounded in Iranian missile strike in central Israel, according to Israeli media.
🇬🇧🇮🇶 - A drone struck British Castrol oil warehouses in Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan, causing extensive damage.
🇮🇷🇮🇱 - Iran launched 9 missiles towards Israel this morning alone, with at least 3 of them being cluster missiles.
🇱🇧🇮🇱 - Over the past 12 hours, Hezbollah launched counterattacks in Khiam and Qantara, in the Nabatieh direction, southeast Lebanon. Hezbollah recaptured northern Khiam, with fighting ongoing for the south of the town. Hezbollah units also re-entered Qantara; frontline sources reported clashes in the center of the town last night.
🇱🇧🇮🇱 - 48 IDF soldiers have been wounded in clashes with Hezbollah over the last 24 hours in southern Lebanon, according to the Israeli Army.
🇱🇧🇮🇱 - "The Israeli army is barely catching its breath in southern Lebanon, and its resources are less than in the previous round of fighting," - Haaretz....
🇺🇸 Blue Owl Capital just disclosed that investors tried to pull 40.7% of one fund and 21.9% of another in a single quarter, and both funds gave the same answer, you can only have 5% back, and everyone else waits in line.
This is a bank run, not a normal withdrawal.
Wall Street spent the last decade selling millions of investors on something called semi-liquid private credit, higher yields, steady income and the promise you could get your money back every quarter if you needed it. What they buried in the fine print was what happens when too many people try to leave at the same time.
Analysts who have covered private credit for decades say nothing on this scale has ever been reported before at any major private credit manager.
These funds do not hold stocks you can sell on a Tuesday afternoon, they hold private loans to mid sized companies that cannot be liquidated quickly without destroying the price for every investor still trapped inside.
This product was originally designed for ...
🇺🇸 President Trump wants to switch to war economy in 2027 with massive increase in military spending and massive cuts to healthcare and other domestic agencies
Once a deficit hawk — he said in 2016 that he thought he could balance the budget in five years — Trump ended his first term with $7.8 trillion in added debt. His 2027 proposal is expected to give an update on 10-year deficit projections currently estimated at around $16 trillion.
The GOP's message for the Midterms will be focused on the "need" for a massive defense build up while the Democrats' message will be focused on affordability.
The fiscal 2027 budget will be the first time Trump puts his second-term governing agenda into one comprehensive document — with the numbers to back it up. The budget he released last year lacked detailed line-by-line spending targets and the economic assumptions necessary to project the long-term cost of his proposals.
Investors in US Treasuries will be looking to see if the debt and ...
