We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
Beijing's Green Light | zerohedge
⬛️ "China stimulus is coming"
🔶 After repeatedly teasing the idea of incoming stimulus several times last year, getting investors' hopes up only to scale it back and disappoint, recent memos from State officials give China's stimulus plans a precise framework they are looking to deliver on. Officials indicated they are waiting to launch the long-awaited "stimulus bazooka" once improving Chinese economic data is met with deteriorating US data.
🔶 This is a historically unusual combination, as global financial flows tend to move in sync (booms and busts are global). Never before has the US entered into a downturn without China. It suggests that Beijing is waiting for signs that the Mainland economy has decoupled before deploying roaring stimulus.
🔶 Finance Minister Lan Fuan points to the fact that Chinese strength relative to US weakness would necessarily attract new foreign direct investment (FDI). Positive real GDP and new FDI coupled with massive consumption stimulus is the path China seeks out of the stubborn economic malaise it has faced since Covid.
🔶 The Chinese State Council released a better-than-expected Q1 GDP report this week, and US GDP looks to decline in Q1. That's the exact divergence Chinese officials have been waiting for to greenlight massive stimulus.
🔶 Chinese stimulus will mean inflation (rising wages, growth and improved employment) and higher bond yields. China's lenders will be in a stronger position and credit spreads will lower. Chinese equities, specifically in sectors whose performance is tied to domestic demand, will also benefit. Demand for industrial commodities - in particular oil, copper and other metals - will increase.
🔶 Western officials continue to talk up looming delisting threats and investment bans, but both look to be far off as reciprocal investment bans from China could collapse the private sector and disturb the Treasury market in ways that would make the recent stress look like a walk in the park.
By DeathTaxesandQE
🇸🇪 Sweden passes 'good behaviour' law to kick out misbehaving immigrants
Sweden's parliament passed a law on Monday allowing authorities to revoke immigrants' residency permits based on bad behaviour, such as having unpaid debts, doing undeclared work or links to extremist organisations.
The law, which covers pending permits but also retroactively already granted permits, is part of a wider tightening of immigration rules by the right-wing government and its support party, the nationalist Sweden Democrats, ahead of a parliamentary election in September.
The law has been criticised by the opposition and human rights advocacy groups as arbitrary because decisions would be taken on behaviour that has not been deemed criminal.
The law does not specify what types of behaviours are deemed unacceptable but the government has mentioned unpaid debts, not paying taxes, criminality and links to extremist organisations. The Migration Agency is tasked ...
The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has fallen to 340.3 million barrels, its lowest level since 1983, after the government released another 8.9 million barrels last week.
The reserve has dropped 18% (75 million barrels) since the Iran conflict began in February.
The administration has used SPR releases to help keep oil prices from surging.
Source: CNN
After several hours of confusion and uncertainty, it’s time to bring some order to the situation.
What exactly did Trump agree to?
The agreement rests on two very lean principles:
“The Strait of Hormuz must remain open to free navigation, and Iran must not possess nuclear weapons.”
Trump has insisted in nearly every other post that Iran will not be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons, while simultaneously pushing to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to unrestricted maritime traffic at any cost.
But why was Trump so eager to reach such a minimal agreement? Why did he pressure Israel not to interfere, even at the cost of merging the various fronts and exposing soldiers to greater danger? Why did J.D. Vance, who has opposed military intervention, suddenly move to the forefront while Rubio faded into the background? And why has no one managed to offer a convincing explanation beyond references to the World Cup, birthdays, the midterm elections, and other superficial reasons for this apparent obsession?
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