We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
Developments in the Iran-Israel war. It is currently 1:11am in Tel Aviv and 1:42am in Tehran.
Main points:
Iran and Israel have started targeting each other’s energy infrastructure.
Iranian missiles continued to target and impact northern and central Israel.
Israel has started targeting Iranian oil infrastructure, including oil refineries and oil depots.
Israeli airstrikes continue to target various parts of Tehran and the surrounding areas.
Iranian air defence seems to finally be doing some damage to Israeli missiles and drones. In turn, Israel has deployed dozens of small quadcopters and loitering munitions to waste Iranian air defence and saturate for larger attacks with cruise missiles.
Drones launched from Iran and factions in Iraq continue to target northern and southern Israel.
Missiles & drones:
2 rockets were launched from the Khan Younis area of southern Gaza by an unknown Palestinian faction. Neither were intercepted, with the IDF claiming they hit an open area with no casualties.
2 rockets were launched from Gaza, both of which impacted an unspecified section of the Gaza buffer zone. They were either targeting IDF troops, or malfunctioned mid-flight.
The IDF claimed to have intercepted 2 drones, launched by either Iran or factions in Iraq, in the area of Kiryat Shmona, northeastern Israel.
Consequences:
Israeli outlet Haaretz confirms that 30 Iranian ballistic missiles impacted military bases across Israel, including 10 in Tel Aviv. This was at around 7am local time in Israel, prior to more missile impacts in the north of the country.
Iranian ballistic missiles impacted Haifa and Tamra, targeting the Haifa Oil Refinery
Israeli airstrikes and drones targeted various targets around Tehran including a central oil depot.
Footage shows what appears to be wreckage of a shot down Israeli F-16 somewhere over Iran.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian claims that Iran shot down an Israeli F-35 fighter jet.
Israeli airstrikes targeted Iran’s Bushehr Port.
IDF spokesperson claimed that 7 IDF soldiers were “slightly” wounded Friday night in an Iranian ballistic missile strike on central Israel.
Israeli airstrikes targeted the Yemen capital of Sana’a, reportedly killing the commander-in-chief of the Houthis. This remains unconfirmed.
Al Jazeera, citing a senior Iranian official, stated that Iran is preparing for an “ongoing” confrontation with Israel, and will escalate its attacks.
The head of Israel’s domestic intelligence announced his resignation, citing the failure to stop Hamas’ October 7 attacks.
The IDF claimed to have killed the head of Iran’s military Intelligence, as well as the commander of the surface-to-surface missile sector.
Israeli MDA spokesperson stated that 3 people have been killed and 172 others (directly) wounded.
Iranian intelligence claims to have arrested 16 Mossad-affiliated collaborators and spies across Iran,
The IAEA stated that 4 "critical" buildings were damaged at the Isfahan Nuclear Technology/Research Center in central Iran, including the Uranium Conversion Facility and the Fuel Plate Fabrication Plant. They added that no increase in off-site radiation is expected at the Natanz Nuclear enrichment facility after significant Israeli airstrikes, including with bunker-busting bombs.
The current home-front guidelines remain in place for all of Israel, including a ban on all educational activities and large gatherings, except for essential services.
Regional developments:
Trump stated that “The war between Iran and Israel must end”.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated that new military assets are being transferred to the Middle East, including aircraft, for “contingency support”.
Iran’s foreign ministry confirmed that Iran will not participate in nuclear talks with the U.S. on Sunday, stating that “Participating in talks with accomplices of the aggressor is pointless.”
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Shariz expressed his “unwavering support” to Iran in a phone call with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.
🇺🇸 #Oklahoma high school principal (Kirk Moore) seen charging at and disarming a school shooter.
The suspect, identified as 20-year-old Victor Hawkins, was a former student who said he wanted to shoot up the school “like the Columbine shooters did.” While taking down the shooter, Moore was shot in the leg. He is expected to recover.
When the Principal woke up that day, he never thought he would be tackling a gunman.
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🇨🇳🛢 How much strategic oil does the world actually have in reserve?
Global strategic crude oil inventories stood at ~2.5 BILLION barrels as of December 2025, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
China holds by far the largest stockpile at 1,397 million barrels, more than 3 times the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve of 413 million barrels, which itself sits at only 58% of its full storage capacity of 714 million barrels.
China added an average of 1.1 million barrels per day to its strategic inventories throughout 2025, with preliminary data suggesting it continued building stockpiles in early 2026 ahead of the Iran War.
Japan holds the 3rd-largest reserve at 263 million barrels, followed by OECD European countries at 179 million barrels.
Meanwhile, the US is releasing 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to suppress oil prices, part of a broader 400 million barrel coordinated release agreed by 32 IEA member nations in March.
🔗 ...
🛢 JP Morgan Warns Oil Market Out of Balance, Prices Must Rise
🔸The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows, has removed 13.7 million barrels per day from global supply in April alone. A JP Morgan research note warns the market has no good way to replace it.
🔸Normally, spare production capacity in Saudi Arabia and the UAE acts as the market’s shock absorber. But that buffer has effectively been removed, eliminating the system’s first line of defense.
🔸With spare capacity unavailable, markets turned to inventories
➤ Global stockpiles are now being drained at ~7.1 mbd in April, an extraordinary pace, according to the note.
🔸Meanwhile, demand is collapsing because supply simply isn’t reaching users — “forced demand destruction.”The hardest hit sectors include:
▪️ Petrochemical plants across Asia are shutting down or slashing output as LPG, ethane, and naphtha flows from the Gulf collapse
▪️ Airline jet fuel ...
🛢⛽️ Global oil inventories are heading toward RECORD LOWS:
Global visible oil inventories have fallen -255 million barrels since the start of the conflict on February 27, to 7,864 million barrels.
Total estimated oil draws, including non-OECD refined products storage, have accelerated to 10.9 million barrels per day in April, the largest monthly draws on record since 2017.
Cumulative estimated draws since the start of the war now stand at 474 million barrels, with Hormuz flows holding at ~10% of normal, or 2.0 million barrels per day.
Meanwhile, even in an optimistic scenario where Strait of Hormuz flows begin recovering by late April, it is unlikely to prevent global visible inventories from reaching all-time lows, according to Goldman Sachs.
As inventories keep falling, physical oil markets are likely to require sharply higher prices for immediate delivery, since buyers cannot wait months for cheaper futures delivery when stocks are running critically low.
Goldman also warns...
