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Analysis

Developments in the Iran-Israel war. It is currently 1:11am in Tel Aviv and 1:42am in Tehran.

Main points:

Iran and Israel have started targeting each other’s energy infrastructure.

Iranian missiles continued to target and impact northern and central Israel.

Israel has started targeting Iranian oil infrastructure, including oil refineries and oil depots.

Israeli airstrikes continue to target various parts of Tehran and the surrounding areas.

Iranian air defence seems to finally be doing some damage to Israeli missiles and drones. In turn, Israel has deployed dozens of small quadcopters and loitering munitions to waste Iranian air defence and saturate for larger attacks with cruise missiles.

Drones launched from Iran and factions in Iraq continue to target northern and southern Israel.

Missiles & drones:

2 rockets were launched from the Khan Younis area of southern Gaza by an unknown Palestinian faction. Neither were intercepted, with the IDF claiming they hit an open area with no casualties.

2 rockets were launched from Gaza, both of which impacted an unspecified section of the Gaza buffer zone. They were either targeting IDF troops, or malfunctioned mid-flight.

The IDF claimed to have intercepted 2 drones, launched by either Iran or factions in Iraq, in the area of Kiryat Shmona, northeastern Israel.

Consequences:

Israeli outlet Haaretz confirms that 30 Iranian ballistic missiles impacted military bases across Israel, including 10 in Tel Aviv. This was at around 7am local time in Israel, prior to more missile impacts in the north of the country.

Iranian ballistic missiles impacted Haifa and Tamra, targeting the Haifa Oil Refinery

Israeli airstrikes and drones targeted various targets around Tehran including a central oil depot.

Footage shows what appears to be wreckage of a shot down Israeli F-16 somewhere over Iran.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian claims that Iran shot down an Israeli F-35 fighter jet.

Israeli airstrikes targeted Iran’s Bushehr Port.

IDF spokesperson claimed that 7 IDF soldiers were “slightly” wounded Friday night in an Iranian ballistic missile strike on central Israel.

Israeli airstrikes targeted the Yemen capital of Sana’a, reportedly killing the commander-in-chief of the Houthis. This remains unconfirmed.

Al Jazeera, citing a senior Iranian official, stated that Iran is preparing for an “ongoing” confrontation with Israel, and will escalate its attacks.

The head of Israel’s domestic intelligence announced his resignation, citing the failure to stop Hamas’ October 7 attacks.

The IDF claimed to have killed the head of Iran’s military Intelligence, as well as the commander of the surface-to-surface missile sector.

Israeli MDA spokesperson stated that 3 people have been killed and 172 others (directly) wounded.

Iranian intelligence claims to have arrested 16 Mossad-affiliated collaborators and spies across Iran,

The IAEA stated that 4 "critical" buildings were damaged at the Isfahan Nuclear Technology/Research Center in central Iran, including the Uranium Conversion Facility and the Fuel Plate Fabrication Plant. They added that no increase in off-site radiation is expected at the Natanz Nuclear enrichment facility after significant Israeli airstrikes, including with bunker-busting bombs.

The current home-front guidelines remain in place for all of Israel, including a ban on all educational activities and large gatherings, except for essential services.

Regional developments:

Trump stated that “The war between Iran and Israel must end”.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated that new military assets are being transferred to the Middle East, including aircraft, for “contingency support”.

Iran’s foreign ministry confirmed that Iran will not participate in nuclear talks with the U.S. on Sunday, stating that “Participating in talks with accomplices of the aggressor is pointless.”

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Shariz expressed his “unwavering support” to Iran in a phone call with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.

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This is gross.

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Duh Markets

🌆 Market News Digest
[July 3, 2026 EST]

🔥 Top Stories
• Middle East risk flares — IDF hits Hezbollah sites in south Lebanon; Houthis threaten Saudi assets; France deploys naval/mine-countermeasure assets near Hormuz.
• U.S. oil market scrutiny — DOJ/FTC say they’re monitoring crude for price-fixing/collusion as Brent settles at $72.12/bbl.
• Trump pardons saga — Trump signs pardons for six and faces fresh scrutiny after NBC reported undisclosed stock purchases before tariff pause.

⛽ Oil & Energy
• Gulf crude exports topped 10M bpd in June but remain ~40% below pre-conflict levels; Fitch flags ongoing Iran/Mideast risk to corporates and oil forecasts.
• CMA CGM warns Hormuz transit charges would be “devastating”; Airbus says defense cooperation remains pressured.

📊 Markets & Macro
• Germany’s 2027 draft budget lifts borrowing to €203.7B and spending to €555.4B; euro equities firm with DAX +0.85%.
• ECB/BoE message: inflation still the focus, but Bailey says UK ...

Defeat

🇮🇷🏆🇺🇸 Iran Is a Bigger Defeat Than Vietnam | Foreign Policy

At his second inaugural, U.S. President Donald Trump pronounced his hope “that our recent presidential election will be remembered as the greatest and most consequential election in the history of our country.” By losing his Gulf war, Trump has achieved that goal. His choice to launch a campaign against Iran was encouraged by others, but fully his own. It has led to a reversal that marks a strategic calamity far greater than the U.S. defeat in the Vietnam War.

Defeat in the Iranian war looks, on the surface, nothing like other U.S. military defeats. The speed of the war and its remoteness have lent an air of unreality to the whole endeavor. The White House has not been burned, as it was in 1814; there have not been protests against a nonexistent draft. The absence of substantial U.S. casualties in this conflict also masks the scale of the U.S. defeat. To be sure, the war has been deadly: Thousands of Iranians, ...

The Path to War

According to The Wall Street Journal, Donald Trump reviewed military options for a full-scale war against Iran to “finish the job,” but has decided, for now, not to move forward.

The report says Trump is concerned that renewed military conflict could hurt the chances of a diplomatic resolution and of dismantling Iran’s nuclear program, and that he’s shown willingness to let indirect talks in Qatar run past the August 18 deadline. He is said to be fine with continuing limited strikes on Iranian targets if Tehran violates the current temporary deal - as it already has, repeatedly.

How are those negotiations going?

Not well. It seems JD Vance’s “historic” face-to-face achievement was a one-off. Washington has been quietly downgraded from talking to the Great Satan to negotiating with the Little Satan instead - a senior Qatari official confirmed that U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Qatari officials in Doha, but there are currently no high-level U.S.-Iran meetings ...

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