We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
All,
Well, that didn't take long. We are now in the week after Trump ordered MIDNIGHT HAMMER execution. It looks like the mission was accomplished. Aerial photos clearly show impact locations and apparent collapse of underground structures. The psychological aftermath will be more devastating for Iran.
I am thoroughly impressed with the execution. Only account/media I saw that called it has been calling it everyday since Israel started hostilities with Iran. He's a broken clock, so I know he didn't know anything. The operational security was outstanding creating a sense of complete shock around the world that it was pulled off. This is what you get with serious people in charge and demonstrated consequences for leaking. And, people thought Pete Hegseth was a bad choice for Sec. Def. The operational control here demonstrates his impact of the culture of our military.
The other thing just as impressive is there appears to have been staunch disagreement among our leaders about taking this step. Yet, no one leaked it or is playing Monday morning QB today. They felt comfortable with letting their voice heard, but locked in once a decision was made. THIS IS WHAT WE WANT!!! We hired them to speak up and they did, but we also hired them NOT to embarrass us through pettiness. This is an amazing feat that speaks to the character and leadership qualities Trump possesses. We do NOT want to diminish it. I am more confident today that Trump will get feedback, assess it, and decide with the typical pros/cons a CEO operates with.
Now, what is the result of this action. Well, Israel has neutered Iran's Air Force, the IRGC keeps losing it's head, and their Navy is hoping for the order to close the Straits never comes. If the hardliners keep pushing and not sue for peach by giving up all nuclear ambition, I suspect we are entering an extracted air war. Israel and the US will slowly pick apart Iranian forces and leaders until they decide enough is enough. All they have now are missiles and terror. They lose launching capability with every barrage. You can have 20k+ missiles, but they do little if you cannot fuel or launch them. The terror side is concerning, but is likely diminished because of response to 10/7 and improving intelligence now that these orgs can refocus on their mission versus DEI. We'll know in the next few weeks if this is a real concern.
My hope is this is beginning of the end of mistakes made by Jimmy Carter and Iran becomes what it was or better. I have limited desire to see Europe, but getting a chance to see the mountains of Tehran is on my most unlikely bucket list. If the next weeks, months break the right way it could become possible.
CP
Pedophile elites wanted to buy an Island, asked if it "comes with children".
Agent replied, the Island "does have a small school"
They don't know camera was rolling
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🇺🇸 #Oklahoma high school principal (Kirk Moore) seen charging at and disarming a school shooter.
The suspect, identified as 20-year-old Victor Hawkins, was a former student who said he wanted to shoot up the school “like the Columbine shooters did.” While taking down the shooter, Moore was shot in the leg. He is expected to recover.
When the Principal woke up that day, he never thought he would be tackling a gunman.
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Oilprice.com
Two months after the U.S. and Israel bombed Iran on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for most tanker traffic, forcing more than 10 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude output shut-ins across the Middle Eastern oil producers.
The two-month-long closure of the Strait of Hormuz is longer than analysts had expected at the start of the war. Most assumed back then that the Strait would open by April and producers could restart shut-in wells in May.
Even if the Strait of Hormuz opened to free tanker traffic today, oil supply from the Middle East will take months to start flowing again and reach consumers in Asia, who were the first to feel the supply shock.
The longer the chokepoint remains off limits to most tanker traffic, the worse the scars would be on global supply and economic growth.
The restart of thousands of oil wells across the Middle East would be a big challenge. Some countries would need weeks, but others – like Iraq – many months to bring ...
🍚 War on Iran & El Niño threaten world rice production
Global rice supply is expected to decline this year as farmers across Asia reduce planting areas due to fertilizer shortages and higher fuel costs linked to the US-Israeli war on Iran, while an emerging El Niño weather pattern is also likely to further limit production of the world’s most widely consumed staple.
The impact of the war in West Asia is being felt by farmers in major exporting countries such as Thailand and Vietnam, as well as in import-dependent nations like the Philippines and Indonesia, according to growers and traders. Disruptions to fuel and fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global shipping chokepoint linking the Gulf to international markets, have contributed to the strain.
Smallholder farmers in Southeast Asia are also facing added pressure as El Niño is expected to bring hotter and drier conditions in the second half of the year.
🔗 The Cradle
🛢 “Why aren’t oil prices higher?” “How can the oil market be so complacent?”
Oil prices almost always trade to extremes. Right before it does, it always gets “obvious” from a fundamental setup standpoint.
I remember a great conversation I had with Nelson Wu of Open Square Capital about the oil market being analogous to toilet paper. You don’t realize how badly you need it until you run out of it.
Oil prices trade on the margin. As long as there are onshore inventories to draw from, traders don’t panic. It’s when you run low on onshore inventories that panic starts to set in.
Goldman published an update on Thursday that basically captured the storage math phenomenon that we are seeing:
Global visible total oil inventories remain bloated relative to historical standards. If, for example, we had started the conflict with global oil inventories at the 2025 lows, WTI and Brent would already be above $200/bbl.
The ~1.4 billion bbl cushion at the start of 2026 is what gave the US ...
