We know what’s coming and we are prepared.
🇺🇸 The Sahm Rule Was Right All Along
The Sahm Rule is one of the cleanest, most reliable ways to identify when the U.S. is in recession. It’s simple: if the three month average unemployment rate rises half a percentage point above its 12 month low, you’re already in one. It’s not about forecasts, it’s a contemporaneous signal and it’s been 100% accurate since the 1970s. When it flirted with activation in 2023, Claudia Sahm herself urged caution because of pandemic era distortions, but she also stressed that if it flipped cleanly, it meant the labor market was weaker than the glossy headlines implied.
Fast forward, and the revisions now show that’s exactly what happened. In August 2024, BLS benchmark adjustments erased 818,000 jobs. By February 2025, another 589,000 were gone. And just recently, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent flagged that another 800,000 could be stripped out. Add to that the steady drip of downward revisions through 2025, June flipping from a modest gain to a net job loss and the labor market has been overstated by somewhere between 2.3 and 2.4 million jobs since April 2023.
Like i said in my previous post that kind of wholesale rewrite hasn’t happened since 2009, when the BLS had to admit it had massively overstated payrolls heading into the financial crisis. And history shows that these benchmark adjustments aren’t just statistical clean up. They almost always surface at turning points, the stagflationary recession of the mid 1970s, the double dip downturn in the early 1980s, and the collapse of 2007-09. They’re usually evidence that the economy was already much weaker beneath the surface, and the headline strength was more illusion than fact.
Which brings us back to the Sahm Rule. On the charts today, the indicator looks muted, sitting well below the 0.5 threshold. But that’s because the unemployment rate itself has been calculated off job counts that are now being revised down. If those missing millions of jobs had been reflected at the time, the unemployment rate would have been higher, the Sahm Rule would have ticked up, and the U.S. might already be shown as having tripped into recession. In other words, the Sahm Rule didn’t miss, the inputs did. Once the revisions are fully baked in, history may show it was flashing red in 2023 while policymakers insisted on labor resilience.
That’s what makes this so consequential. For two years, the Fed leaned on the strong jobs market as its justification for keeping rates higher for longer. But if those jobs never really existed, then the Fed was tightening into fragility. That turns its high for longer stance into a policy error built on faulty data.
Which is why the September 17, 2025 cut is unlikely to be a one off. As these revisions settle and the depth of labor weakness becomes impossible to deny, the Fed won’t just be trimming for optics. It will be forced into a broader pivot in 2026 acknowledging, belatedly, that the Sahm Rule was right all along.
đź”— EndGame Macro
HOLY CRAP! NAACP lawyer came before the Supreme Court and said the quiet part out loud
Janai Nelson said we need race-based districts because: "white Democrats were not voting for black candidates whether they were Democrats or not!"
This is INSANE.
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BREAKING: In an insane move, Justice Ketanji Jackson declares we need to draw Congressional districts based on race because black people are like disabled people
"They don't have equal access to the voting system. They're DISABLED!"
This is utter madness. How did she get on the Supreme Court?!
"My, kind of, paradigmatic example of this is something like the ADA. Congress passed the ADA against the backdrop of a world generally not accessible to people with disabilities...why is that not what's happening here?!"
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BlackRock CEO Larry Fink says this is only the beginning as the tokenization of everything is underway.
Money, property, and even personal identity will soon exist in digital form.
He calls it a major opportunity for BlackRock, saying the plan is to move beyond traditional financial assets by digitally re-potting them into a new system.
đź”— Shadow of Ezra (@ShadowofEzra)
🤖📱 Between empty promises of a billionaire and a social credit system. The “secret” way your behaviour is ranked on X
What is Tweepcred? It’s a reputation system inherited from the days of Twitter, a social credit mechanism built into X, where every like, comment, retweet, or interaction feeds a hidden score. Post the wrong thing, and your reach is throttled, invisible to followers, blocked from the For You Page, and your voice is confined to a digital coffin. The worst part? X won’t even tell us what we’re doing wrong.
Tweepcred was open-sourced two years ago as part of Elon’s big push for “transparency.” The release confirmed what many suspected for over a decade: the system wasn’t neutral. It could be gamified, and it rewarded those who knew how to play it. Industry insiders and large organizations held a massive advantage over individuals, defeating the very purpose of the internet and the cultural revolution that once challenged mass media.
Content was no longer ...
🇺🇸👨‍🌾 Meriwether Farms on X:
Dear Trump,
We love you and support you— but your suggestion to buy beef from Argentina to stabilize beef prices would be an absolute betrayal to the American cattle rancher.
We understand there are larger economic and geopolitical dynamics at play, including countering CCP influence in countries in our hemisphere. But the practice of solving problems “over there” before solving problems here on our soil is what contributed to the downfall of our country: Americans always come last.
We understand beef prices are high, and we admire your concern for all Americans, but this is not the fault of the American producer. This is the fault of politicians who have allowed BRICS-aligned entities to dominate the meat industry, that participate in price fixing and who also continually lie to their consumers.
Washington for decades has facilitated the squeezing of our own ranchers while allowing these entities to flood the market with cheaper, ...
